Scenarios for India's Contribution to Greenhouse Gas Emissions by 2050

India's energy sector is at a pivotal point, with its trajectory having significant implications for both national and global climate goals. This post explores the projected growth in India's energy use under different economic scenarios and assesses its impact on greenhouse gas emissions. The post is based on a comprehensive study by the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, which outlines potential pathways for India's energy future up to 2047.

Economic Scenarios and Energy Use

India's energy demand is closely tied to its economic growth. The study presents two scenarios: the Reference Scenario and the CLEAN-India Scenario, each offering a different pathway for energy use based on policy interventions and technological advancements.

• Reference Scenario: This scenario assumes a continuation of existing policies with moderate improvements in technology and efficiency. By 2047, carbon-free electricity generation is expected to reach 60% of total power generation.
• CLEAN-India Scenario: This scenario envisions aggressive policy measures to enhance renewable energy adoption and improve energy efficiency. By 2047, carbon-free electricity could constitute 90% of total power generation, supported by substantial investments in solar, wind, and other clean technologies.

Sectoral Analysis of Energy Use

Power Sector

The power sector is crucial for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. In 2023, India generated 22% of its electricity from clean sources, with solar and wind contributing significantly. Under the Reference Scenario, carbon-free electricity generation is projected to increase from 23% in 2020 to 60% by 2047. The CLEAN-India Scenario aims for a more ambitious target of 90%.

Transport Sector

The transport sector's transition to electric vehicles (EVs) is vital for reducing emissions. In 2023, EV penetration reached 6.4%, with over 1.5 million electric vehicles sold. The Reference Scenario anticipates that EVs will account for about 23% of two-wheeler sales and 15% of passenger car sales by 2030. The CLEAN-India Scenario accelerates this transition, targeting 100% EV sales across all vehicle categories by 2035.

Industry Sector

Industries such as iron, steel, cement, and petrochemicals are major energy consumers. The Reference Scenario projects modest gains in electrification and efficiency improvements. However, the CLEAN-India Scenario proposes significant electrification and the adoption of green hydrogen technologies to decarbonize industrial processes.

Impact on Greenhouse Gas Emissions

The shift towards cleaner energy sources under both scenarios has profound implications for greenhouse gas emissions.

• Reference Scenario: While there are improvements in emissions intensity due to increased renewable energy use, the overall reduction in emissions is limited by continued reliance on fossil fuels.
• CLEAN-India Scenario: This scenario offers a more substantial reduction in emissions through aggressive deployment of renewables and electrification across sectors.

Global Contribution and Temperature Impact

India's contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions under these scenarios will be significant given its size and growth trajectory. The CLEAN-India Scenario aligns with global efforts to limit temperature rise to below 2°C above pre-industrial levels as outlined in the Paris Agreement. Achieving these targets will require international cooperation and support.

Challenges and Opportunities

Challenges

• Infrastructure Development: Achieving the targets set out in the CLEAN-India Scenario requires significant upgrades to grid infrastructure.
• Policy Implementation: Effective policy frameworks are essential to incentivize investments in clean technologies.

Opportunities

• Economic Growth: Transitioning to a cleaner energy system can stimulate economic growth through job creation in renewable energy sectors.
• Health Benefits: Reducing reliance on fossil fuels can decrease air pollution levels, improving public health outcomes.

Conclusion

India's journey towards energy independence and reduced greenhouse gas emissions hinges on its ability to implement robust policies that promote renewable energy adoption and efficiency improvements across sectors. The CLEAN-India Scenario offers a viable pathway to achieving these goals by leveraging technological advancements and fostering an environment conducive to sustainable growth.

References

1. Abhyankar, N., Mohanty, P., Deorah, S., Karali, N., Paliwal, U., Kersey, J., & Phadke, A. (2023). India's path towards energy independence and a clean future: Harnessing India's renewable edge for cost-effective energy independence by 2047.The Electricity Journal,36(5). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tej.2023.107273
2. Statista. (2023). Electricity generation in India. Retrieved from https:// www.statista.com/statistics/1406643/electricity-generation-india/
3. EVreporter. (2024). India's Electric Vehicle sales trend April 2024. Retrieved from https:// evreporter.com/indias-electric-vehicle-sales-trend-april-2024/
4. Ember Climate. (2023). India Electricity Trends. Retrieved fromhttps:// ember-energy.org/countries-and-regions/india/
5. Statista. (2023). Penetration of electric vehicles in India. Retrieved from https:// www.statista.com/statistics/1453069/india-penetration-of-electric-vehicles/