Scenarios, Dear Boy, Scenarios

Hello from Melbourne,

Former British Prime Minister Harold Macmillan once famously responded to a journalist who asked him what is most likely to blow governments off course by saying "Events, dear boy, events".

Events certainly blew Iran's government off course when Hamas' political leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed while in Tehran for the inauguration of the new president. Events also blew Hezbollah off course with the assassination of its military chief Faud Shukr - although technically Hezbollah is not a government. And Israel's government -- and many others -- are now waiting for a potential retaliatory strike by Iran: an event that could have significant repercussions.

But while events may blow governments off course, thinking through their impacts is better done not by predicting events but by analysing various plausible scenarios.

And so, for this reason, this week we are very pleased to announce a new premium service at Geopolitical Strategy.

In addition to our daily dispatches modelled on the US President’s Daily Brief, Geopolitical Dispatch, which we normally provide a digest of in this LinkedIn version, we are now producing weekly scenario reports called Geopolitical Edge.

We have designed Geopolitical Edge specifically for corporate leaders and financial institutions wanting to get an edge by better understanding complex geopolitical issues and their potential impacts — all with a regular cadence and presented in a digestible and useful form.

Using Structured Analytic Techniques pioneered by intelligence services, each edition:

1. Outlines four scenarios for how a geopolitical situation could evolve
2. Analyses their key drivers and constraints for realistic assessments
3. Attributes probabilities for each scenario to help identify out-of-consensus views
4. Explains how each would impact economies and financial markets
5. Provides a list of the most important factors to watch to track how the situation is developing

Each edition is written by our senior consultants with at least fifteen years experience in diplomacy and draws on conversations with our extensive diplomatic and expert networks on the ground.

Last week -- perhaps unsurprisingly as it is the topic dominating the news right now -- we published a scenario report on prospects for the Israel-Gaza conflict over the remainder of 2024 called “Israel-Palestine: End of the Beginning? Or Beginning of the End?”

If you would like a copy or to discuss subscription options, please let me know by email: [email protected].

All the best

Damien