A scenario under which the U.S. could withdraw from NAFTA...

President Trump could be successful is bringing NAFTA to its knees. But he might have to wait a year.

His threats notwithstanding, there is general though not universal agreement that Trump cannot, by himself, withdraw the United States from the North America Free Trade Agreement. Withdrawing, the common wisdom is, would require an act of Congress.

Could that happen today, could the Republican-led Congress vote to withdraw? Don’t bet on it.

Though a Republican-led Congress withheld fast-track authority from former President Obama during most of his time in office, that was largely politically and not ideologically motivated. It made no sense.

It was the GOP, stalwart supporters of increased “rules-based” trade for decades, that provided the votes required by former President Bill Clinton, a Democrat, to pass NAFTA into law in the first place, bringing to fruition negotiations begun by his predecessor, President Bush, a Republican.

It was the Republican-led Congress that passed CAFTA and then DR-CAFTA – the Central America Free Trade Agreement, which also included the Dominican Republic – with strong opposition from Democrats. Those negotiations had also been started by a President Bush, this time the son, and this time completed.

And, then once again, the Republican Congress, with Obama’s support, passed KORUS – an FTA with South Korea.

But what if Democrats controlled Congress?

Read the rest of my post on Forbes.com.