Scenario Thinking For Lazy People
When I suggest to people they could think more strategically by escaping the day-to-day noise and casting their minds in to the future, they need little persuading. "But how?" they ask.
Scenarios are a classic tool of the futurist and incredibly effective at helping us do something we're not very good at: Stretching our imaginations.
However, "good" scenarios are quite difficult to generate and require substantial time and trial and error to get right. I've seen some consultancies suggest a comprehensive set of corporate scenarios should take six months to compile!
That might be great business for a consultancy, but does little to build capacity in individuals.
As a psychologist, I'm all about helping people think more productively about the future so they can make better decisions.
This means developing a habit of thinking in terms of scenarios on a daily basis, no matter how rough and ready they are.
So here, for those who don't really have time to do it, is a guide to creating scenarios. You might have to write it down the first time, but eventually it should become intuitive, and part of your futurist mindset.
Step 1: Specify a question and timeframe
You need to nail down a slice of the future you care about AND a specific timeframe. Our minds treat 1 year in the future and 100 years as being pretty much the same, so you need the discipline to get specific on how far out you're thinking.?
Step 2: Identify the sources of change/uncertainty
What, specifically, is likely to change in unpredictable ways over the timeframe you've chosen? As a guide, use the PEST categories, ie. politics, economics, social and technological. But be specific. Rather than just "the economy," choose "inflation" or "interest rates." Even better, identify the drivers of change, such as "oil prices."
Beware: Most people think of the trends that have influenced the period up to now, rather than from now into the future.
Step 3: Find the extremes, then some middle roads
Remember, you're trying to stretch your imagination here, so considering scenarios that look exactly like today or are easy to think about will tell you little about the future. If inflation is an important source of uncertainty in your future, then go for extremes like -5% and +30%. Then you can choose a couple of more moderate scenarios.
Why think about things that are highly unlikely to happen? While people living in Western Europe and the U.S. might think these extremes as implausible, you're trying to understand the possibilities, not make predictions. After all, Argentina would love to have inflation of just 30%!
Step 4: Describe the scenarios and their implications
This is the part you might have to write down the first time you do it. For each scenario:
Seem like a lot? If I showed you all the steps to sending an email, it would look like a lot. Go through it a few times, and it will become second-nature. Even thinking of one future scenario that looks different today is progress!
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