Scenario Planning

Let’s take a look at some predictions from some very prominent technologists who could have used a bit of scenario planning from the marketing department.

1943: IBM Chairman Thomas Watson’s famous quote that “… there is a world market for maybe five computers.”

1876:?"This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication."?— William Orton, President of Western Union.

1903:?“The horse is here to stay but the automobile is only a novelty – a fad.”?— President of the Michigan Savings Bank advising Henry Ford’s lawyer, Horace Rackham, not to invest in the Ford Motor Company.

1921:?“The wireless music box has no imaginable commercial value.? Who would pay for a message sent to no one in particular?”

1946:?"Television won't be able to hold on to any market it captures after the first six months.? People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night."?— Darryl Zanuck, 20th Century Fox.

1955:?"Nuclear powered vacuum cleaners will probably be a reality within 10 years."?— Alex Lewyt, President of the Lewyt Vacuum Cleaner Company.

1961:?"There is practically no chance communications space satellites will be used to provide better telephone, telegraph, television or radio service inside the United States."?— T.A.M. Craven, Federal Communications Commission (FCC) commissioner.

1966:?"Remote shopping, while entirely feasible, will flop.”?— Time Magazine.

1981:?“Cellular phones will absolutely not replace local wire systems.”?— Marty Cooper, inventor.

1995:?"I predict the Internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse."?— Robert Metcalfe, founder of 3Com.

2005:?"There's just not that many videos I want to watch."?— Steve Chen, CTO and co-founder of YouTube expressing concerns about his company’s long-term viability.

2006:?"Everyone's always asking me when Apple will come out with a cell phone.? My answer is, 'Probably never.'"?— David Pogue, The New York Times.

2007:?“There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share.”?— Steve Ballmer, Microsoft CEO.One of my favorite marketing courses in B-School focused on “scenario planning”. ?

I know, I know…riveting subject! ?

No doubt I’ve lost your readership right there after your yawn. ?

If I haven’t, you’re correct that scenario planning is a more rigorous discipline than crystal ball gazing, or, consulting the ouija board. ?

Of course, scenario planning is one of those core management and marketing functions that’s easier said than done.?

If not done with uncommon discipline, you’ll get results equivalent to the outcome of your last Tarot Card reading.?

I’m sure you’ve read, or heard, of the saying:?“Predicting the future is easy … getting it right is the hard part.” ?

That’s where scenario planning becomes an essential tool in your strategic planning toolkit. ?

Scenario planning helps put the “may” in “maybe”. ?

Done correctly it creates the possible futures that have a better probability of happening. ?

Spending the time to ferret out these higher probability futures will help guide decision making that is essential as a compass for creating a winning competitive strategy.

As a consultant I saw many businesses “get stuck into a tunnel vision mentality that predicts that everything will be the same today as it was yesterday”. ?

This then becomes the living embodiment of a famous quote: “The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and getting the same result, but, expecting a different one”. ?

Unfortunately, markets are dynamic and volatile and to understand some of these elements, scenario planning is vital to enable you to act “differently”. ?

I use the word “differently” as that’s what you’re ideally trying to do with your product or service so that you can stand out amongst the pack.

Unfortunately, scenario planning is not a cookie cutter solution. ?

So, it is best to know when to use it; particularly when:

1.??? Your company has not properly weighed the costly surprises of poor product-market “fit” by not doing enough market validation. ?That was a nod to Steve Blank.

2.??? The industry you’re attempting to break into has too many inflexible institutionalized barriers that make competitive entry either more difficult or more time consuming; and time equals money. ?That’s a wink to Geoffrey Moore.

3.??? Competitors are using scenario planning.?That’s poke in your own eye with a sharp stick.

Making predictions about the future is very difficult and this is why organizations create a variety of possible future scenarios.?

This is precisely what scenario planning is most useful for.?

It’s adaptive.?

Scenario planning provides different paths for consideration so that when unforeseen problems or changes occur you can react quickly enough so that your company can stay financially viable.

#marketing #strategy #plantosucceed