In this scenario, the United States and its allies in the free world commit fully to Ukraine's military success, making victory a strategic imperative rather than a question of attrition. This approach involves an unprecedented level of military, economic, and diplomatic support to decisively defeat Russian forces and reclaim all occupied Ukrainian territory, including Crimea. Unlike the other scenarios, which focus on varying degrees of compromise, strategic hesitancy, or sustainability concerns, this scenario represents a maximalist strategy driven by game theory principles emphasizing long-term deterrence, power projection, and strategic credibility.
- Unlimited Military Aid and Advanced Weaponry The U.S. and NATO provide Ukraine with unrestricted access to advanced weapons, including long-range missile systems, fifth-generation fighter jets, and next-generation air defense networks. Military advisors, intelligence sharing, and logistical support reach unprecedented levels, allowing Ukraine to conduct highly effective counteroffensive operations.
- Economic Mobilization and Reconstruction Planning The West implements a war economy model, treating Ukraine’s defense as a direct investment in global security. Sanctions against Russia are intensified, including secondary sanctions on nations aiding Moscow. The U.S. and EU establish long-term financial packages for military and economic stability, ensuring Ukraine can sustain operations without economic collapse. Additionally, frozen Russian assets are permanently redirected toward reconstruction efforts in Ukraine.
- Geopolitical and Diplomatic Pressure on Russia The U.S. and its allies aggressively pursue diplomatic isolation of Russia, leveraging economic and political pressure to disrupt its global partnerships. China is pressured to withdraw support for Moscow under threat of trade sanctions. Russia’s remaining allies, including Iran and North Korea, face direct deterrent measures to prevent military cooperation.
- NATO and EU Integration for Ukraine Unlike previous scenarios where NATO expansion was conditional or halted, in this scenario, Ukraine is fast-tracked into both NATO and the EU. This ensures long-term security guarantees and further solidifies Ukraine’s Western alignment, eliminating Russia’s strategic leverage over Kyiv.
- Regime Change in Russia (Long-Term Strategic Objective) By fully investing in Ukraine’s victory, the West accelerates internal pressure on the Russian regime. With military losses mounting, economic hardships worsening, and domestic unrest growing, Putin’s hold on power weakens, increasing the probability of internal political change. The West actively supports opposition groups and democratic movements within Russia, aiming for a post-war transition that permanently removes aggressive Russian expansionism.
From a game-theoretic perspective, this scenario operates on the principle of credible commitment—wherein Western allies demonstrate their full resolve to defeat Russian aggression, eliminating any perception that a compromise or retreat is possible. By shifting the cost-benefit analysis for Russia, this strategy aims to force a surrender or internal collapse, rather than allowing Russia to sustain a prolonged conflict or seek a negotiated settlement that would preserve its influence.
This scenario also follows deterrence theory, ensuring that future aggressors—whether Russia, China, or other authoritarian states—understand that violations of international norms will be met with overwhelming and coordinated responses. The Western coalition, by achieving total victory, reestablishes strategic dominance and deters any future revisionist ambitions.
- Risk of Direct NATO-Russia Conflict Full-scale support for Ukraine may provoke Russia into escalating to a broader conflict, potentially involving direct strikes on NATO territories or tactical nuclear threats. Managing escalation becomes a critical challenge.
- Economic Strain on the West While long-term security benefits justify the investment, the financial burden of a total war economy could strain Western budgets, particularly in the U.S. where political divisions may hinder sustained funding.
- China’s Response If China views Russia’s potential defeat as a threat to its own strategic interests, it could increase support to Moscow or escalate tensions in Taiwan, creating a multi-theater crisis for the U.S. and its allies.
If successful, this scenario results in a decisive Ukrainian victory, the end of Russian territorial ambitions in Europe, and the reestablishment of Western dominance in global security affairs. However, the pathway to such an outcome carries high risks, requiring extraordinary political, military, and economic commitment. If mismanaged, it could lead to an expanded global conflict rather than a controlled resolution.
