Scaling Cleantech: Learn from Green Hydrogen’s Business Case Failure
Emin Askerov
Cleantech Scaleup Consiglieri | Founder and CEO | Board of Directors | Sustainability |
Taking your cleantech startup from the lab to your first-of-a-kind (FOAK) facility is a huge leap. But before you start thinking about scaling, you need to answer one crucial question: Does your technology have a viable business case?
Green hydrogen is a perfect example of what happens when the business case doesn’t exist. Despite billions in investment and massive political backing, it still struggles to make economic sense. If you’re building a FOAK, you need to avoid the same traps.
Why Green Hydrogen is Struggling
The numbers don’t lie:
?? Electricity costs dominate. Nearly 80% of green hydrogen’s operational costs come from electricity. Unless you have ultra-cheap, round-the-clock renewables, your margins disappear.
??? Capital costs are massive. Almost 50% of CAPEX goes into power infrastructure. Even with declining electrolyzer costs, the investment burden remains high.
?? It can’t compete on price. Fossil fuel hydrogen costs $1.50-$2 per kg, while green hydrogen struggles to get below $5 per kg. The economics just don’t work—yet.
Take a look at the infographics of the green hydrogen OPEX structure from Clean Hydrogen Observatory:
The Lesson for Cleantech Startups
If you’re scaling a cleantech business, you must ask: Will my business case work in the next 5-10 years? If not, then maybe it’s time to pivot.
The world is running out of time. We don’t need tech that might be viable in 2040. We need scalable solutions now. If your startup relies on a cost breakthrough or market shift that won’t happen for another decade, consider launching something that can scale up today.
Green hydrogen might become competitive one day—but we don’t have time to wait. The climate clock is ticking. Are you building something that can scale in time?
SEO Analyst & Research based Digital Marketer
3 天前Emin Askerov, the economic viability of green hydrogen remains a significant hurdle, as you pointed out, high electricity costs and CAPEX make large-scale adoption challenging. However, with the EU and U.S. investing billions in subsidies, and electrolyzer costs projected to decline, do you see a potential inflection point in the next 5-10 years? Moreover, emerging green hydrogen hubs in the Middle East and Australia, where ultra-low-cost solar power is abundant, might reshape the economics. Could location-specific advantages be the essential for enabling green hydrogen’s competitiveness sooner than expected?