Saving the Panama Canal will take years and cost billions, if it’s even possible
DOCK WORKERS on a small rowing boat pull a rope between the dock and vehicle carrier ‘Sirius Leader’ as it prepares to enter the Miraflores locks

Saving the Panama Canal will take years and cost billions, if it’s even possible

The channel is Panama’s biggest source of revenue, bringing in $4.3 billion in 2022.?

By PETER MILLARD , MICHAEL D. MCDONALD - JANUARY 9, 2024

The vestiges of an ancient forest tell the story of just how bad things are at the drought-stricken Panama Canal.

A few hundred feet from the massive tankers hauling goods across the globe, gaunt tree stumps rise above the waterline. They’re all that remains of a woodland flooded more than a century ago to create the canal. It’s not unusual to see them at the height of the dry season – but now, in the immediate aftermath of what’s usually the rainy period, they should be fully submerged.

They’re a visible reminder of how parched conditions have crippled a waterway that handles $270 billion a year in global trade. And there are no easy solutions. The Panama Canal Authority is weighing potential fixes that include an artificial lake to pump water into the canal and cloud seeding to boost rainfall, but both options would take years to implement if they’re even feasible.

With water levels languishing at six feet (1.8 meters) below normal, the canal authority capped the number of vessels that can cross. The limits imposed late last year were the strictest since 1989 when the conduit was shut as the US invaded Panama to extract its de facto ruler, Manuel Noriega. Some shippers are paying millions of dollars to jump the growing queue, while others are taking longer, costlier routes around Africa or South America.

The constraints have since eased slightly due to a rainier-than-expected November, but at 24 ships a day, the maximum is still well below the pre-drought daily capacity of about 38. As the dry season takes hold, the bottleneck is poised to worsen again.?

PYXIS PIONEER LPG tanker, registered in Singapore, leaves the Miraflores Locks at the Panama Canal, on the outskirts of Panama City, Panama December 17, 2023. (credit: REUTERS/Roberto Cisneros)

“As a canal, as a country, we need to take some measures because it isn’t acceptable,” Erick Córdoba, the manager of the water division at the canal authority, said in an interview. “We need to calibrate the system again.”

The canal’s travails reflect how climate change is altering global trade flows. Drought created chokepoints last year on the Mississippi River in the US and the Rhine in Europe. In the UK, rising sea levels are elevating the risk of flooding along the Thames. Melting ice is creating new shipping routes in the Arctic.

Under normal circumstances, the Panama Canal handles about 3% of global maritime trade volumes and 46% of containers moving from Northeast Asia to the US East Coast. The channel is Panama’s biggest source of revenue, bringing in $4.3 billion in 2022.?

To allow for 24 vessels a day through the dry season, the canal will release water from Lake Alajuela, a secondary reservoir. If the rains begin to pick up in May, the canal might be able to start increasing traffic, according to Córdoba.?

BUT THOSE are short-term fixes. In the long term, the primary solution to chronic water shortages will be to dam up the Indio River and then drill a tunnel through a mountain to pipe fresh water 8 kilometers (5 miles) into Lake Gatún, the canal’s main reservoir.

The project, along with additional conservation measures, will cost about $2 billion, Córdoba estimates. He says it will take at least six years to dam up and fill the site. The US Army Corps of Engineers is conducting a feasibility study.

The Indio River reservoir would increase vessel traffic by 11 to 15 a day, enough to keep Panama’s top moneymaker working at capacity while guaranteeing fresh water for Panama City, where developers have erected a mini-Miami of gleaming skyscrapers over the past two decades. The country will need to dam even more rivers to guarantee water through to the end of the century.

Moving the proposal forward won’t be easy. It will need congressional approval, and the thousands of farmers and ranchers whose lands would be flooded for the reservoir are already organizing to oppose it.

It’s not the first time Panamanians have banded together to push back against a major infrastructure initiative. Last year, protesters regularly blocked roads after the government rushed to keep First Quantum Minerals Ltd.’s $10 billion copper mine operating. Authorities have since said that they will shut down the mine, a project many view as an ecological disaster.?

Elizabeth Delgado, 38, lives in the last house along the road to the Indio River. It’s one of the first that will get flooded if the reservoir is built. During major storms, the Indio rises enough to get within a few meters of her unpainted wooden home, where her family lives off of the rice, plantains, and cassava she grows. She has no intention of moving.

“How are we supposed to survive someplace else where we won’t know what to do?” Delgado said. “They’ve told us that we’re going to have to leave, but we’re going to stick with our land.”

Another potential fix is decidedly more experimental. In November, a small plane operated by North Dakota-based Weather Modification Inc. arrived in Panama to test cloud seeding, the process of implanting large salt particles into clouds to boost the condensation that creates rain.?

However, cloud seeding has mostly been deployed successfully in dry climates, not in tropical countries like Panama.?

Some shippers have expressed frustration that the canal authority isn’t moving faster to address low water levels.?

“No significant infrastructure projects have gone ahead in Panama to increase the freshwater supply,” Jeremy Nixon, chief executive officer of Japanese container transportation company Ocean Network Express Holdings Ltd., or ONE, wrote in a letter to Panamanian President Laurentino Cortizo Cohen that was seen by Bloomberg. “We sincerely hope that as ONE, and on behalf of our customers, some urgent action can now be taken.”

Panama’s presidential palace didn’t respond to a request for comment on the letter

A COMBINATION of climate change and infrastructure expansion are to blame for the canal’s woes. The canal authority completed a new set of locks in 2016 to increase traffic and keep pace with the growing size of cargo ships. What it didn’t do was build a new reservoir to pump in enough fresh water.

Then the drought hit. As of November, 2023 was the driest year on record at Barro Colorado Island in Lake Gatún, according to Steve Paton, the director of the physical monitoring program at the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute.?

Global warming is intensifying the weather phenomenon known as El Ni?o, which has brought dry conditions to Panama and is expected to last at least through March in the Northern Hemisphere. Lake Gatún drains faster during severe dry seasons, and rising temperatures accelerate evaporation.?

Last year was “totally different from the others,” said Gabriel Alemán, the head of the Panama Canal Pilots’ Association. He’s steered ships through the canal for more than 30 years. “We haven’t reached the peak of the impact.”

In 2023, the trade winds never fully kicked in, which contributed to record water temperatures off the Pacific and Atlantic coasts of Panama. Weak winds also mean that rain clouds don’t make it all the way to Gatún. On many days, it pours in Panama City while the lake only gets a few drops.

The crisis has set back available shipping routes by more than a century. When it began operating in 1914, the canal provided an alternative to the Suez Canal, the Cape of Good Hope, and the Strait of Magellan to send goods between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Shippers are now returning to all three options to avert bottlenecks in Panama, although vessels have recently diverted from the Suez to avoid attacks from Yemen’s Houthi rebels. While the Suez is a sea-level canal, the Panama is a freshwater channel reliant on artificial lakes, making it vulnerable to drought.

Jorge Luis Quijano, a consultant and former head of the canal authority, says it could take a year to get back to normal volumes. Quijano says he saw the problem coming a decade ago, when he supervised the addition of a new set of locks to accommodate larger vessels in the canal. The locks are engineering marvels, but they’re also water hogs.?

Saltwater mixes with fresh water when the canal’s locks fill up. To prevent the country’s biggest source of potable water, Lake Gatún, from getting salty, the canal discharges enough lake water to fill up 76 Olympic-sized pools with each vessel. Giant basins inject some of this water back into the lake, but because this process increases salinity, it can only be used on a limited basis, Quijano said. Before his term ended, he lobbied the government to start construction of an additional reservoir, but to no avail.?

As officials look for lasting solutions, local residents are feeling the effects of the prolonged drought. Raquel Luna, 70, has lived on the edge of Lake Gatún since she was 16. Five of her six adult children live up the road.?

Most years, she charges visitors one US dollar a head to park at her shaded patch of lakefront. A row of palm trees is normally used to tie boats. But now, they’re 20 feet from the water line. Visitors need to scramble across rocks and mud to get to the water. She’s hardly getting any takers.

“Nobody is coming,” she said. “They like it when the water level is high.-


About: Cover Photo- DOCK WORKERS on a small rowing boat pull a rope between the dock and vehicle carrier ‘Sirius Leader’ as it prepares to enter the Miraflores locks while transiting the Panama Canal last September.

(photo credit: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images/TNS

Saving the Panama Canal will take years and cost billions - The Jerusalem Post (jpost.com)

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January 8, 2024 – Volume 21, Issue 1

Executive Summaries

Russia Enters Third Year of War Diminished, Degraded, and Joyless

Pavel K. Baev ?

  • A series of failed missile strikes in Ukraine highlight challenges in Russia’s current offensive, which has made little progress.?
  • The Russian economy is under strain, as evidenced by the military-industrial complex operating at maximum capacity and unable to significantly increase production rates.?
  • Russian public opinion reflects a growing preference for ending the war rather than striving to achieve a complete victory.?


Lavrov Asserts Russian Success Among ‘Global Majority’ ?

Boris Bondarev

  • Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s?emphasis on “demilitarization and denazification” in Ukraine underscores Moscow’s unaltered goals for its war.?
  • His discussion on expanding BRICS is another example of Russia’s broader vision to challenge Western dominance and promote a multipolar global order.?
  • The lack of a clear, long-term strategy against Russian aggression reinforces Moscow’s perception of a lack of unity and resolve in Western policy.?


? Some?Look at Georgian Europeanization with?Hope, Some with?Suspicion

Beka Chedia

  • On December 14, the European Union granted Georgia candidate status,?possibly starting?a?shift in the South Caucasus’ geopolitical orientation.
  • Armenia?and Azerbaijan largely?view Georgia’s candidate status as?a positive step for the region in providing a bridge to Europe, though some view the development with suspicion.
  • Russia?responded by inciting radical pro-Russian groups in Georgia to burn EU flags?and publicly voice their opposition to EU membership.

?

?Russia Enters Third Year of War Diminished, Degraded, and Joyless ?

Pavel K. Baev

On the night of December 29, 2023, Russia conducted a series of massive missile strikes on Ukrainian cities. This operation was meant to add weight to President Vladimir Putin’s confident and unwavering words in a series of public events that concluded the year. It produced another failure, however, as most missiles were intercepted by Ukraine’s air defenses (Meduza.io, December 29). As many as 35 innocent civilians were killed, though the missiles hit nothing of military significance.

In contrast, the earlier Ukrainian missile strike on Feodosia on December 26 resulted in a spectacular explosion of the large Russian landing ship?Novocherkassk?(Svoboda.org, December 29).

Despite putting on a strong front, Putin increasingly struggles to shield the failure to achieve any progress in Russia’s most recent offensive from the domestic population and will likely be unable to avoid the prospect of even more failures in the coming year.? ?

Putin insists on justifying his “special military operation” in the maximalist terms of regime change in Ukraine and the reduction of North Atlantic Treaty Organization enlargement (Republic.ru, December 29).

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu admitted, perhaps unwittingly, that Moscow’s overall goal for 2023 had been much more modest: maintaining defensive lines against the Ukrainian counteroffensive (Interfax, December 26).

Following political orders to demonstrate the capacity for regaining the initiative on the battlefield, Russian troops continue to try advancing on Ukraine’s defenses, focusing particularly on devastated Avdiivka and throwing away hundreds of soldiers in senseless “human wave” assaults (Novayagazeta.eu, December 27).

Ukraine’s military leaders learned bitter lessons from the scant territorial gains from their counteroffensive and seek to adjust their strategy for a long war of attrition. ?

The repercussions of the war have put a greater strain on the Russian economy than official reporting shows (The Insider, December 30). Resilient economic strength looks to be the decisive factor for victory in this war.

While implementing a huge increase in defense and security funding, the Russian military-industrial complex is operating at maximum capacity. The over-exploitation of its basic assets combined with growing labor shortages has led to setbacks in production and technical breakdowns, often manifested in explosions at defense production facilities (Moscow times, December 23).

The Russian Ministry of Finance plans for a new high in war expenditures, though its estimates for incoming revenue are overly optimistic (RBC.ru, December 30). Putin continues to promote the message that money is not a problem. Still, even the most privileged business empires are forced to pay extra taxes and make “donations,” especially at a time of war.

Meanwhile, a further decline in real incomes for ordinary Russians looms on the horizon (Novayagazeta.eu, December 28).?? ?

A severe shortage of investments is disrupting Russia’s high-value oil and gas sector, which struggles to find new loopholes in the constantly tightening Western sanctions regime (Forbes.ru, December 21). The erratic behaviour of Russian energy corporations on global oil markets complicates Moscow’s relations with other producers in the OPEC+ format (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries members along with key partners, including Russia). Putin tried to explain away these tensions during his unexpected visit to the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia in early December 2023 (Forbes.ru, December 7). The secretive trip, however, demonstrated the sharp decline in Russia’s ability to wield significant influence in international affairs. ?

Veteran pundits, such as Sergei Karaganov and Dmitry Trenin, seek to reconfigure Russia’s acute ambitions for securing the status of a great power into the claim for leadership of the presumably anti-Western “global majority” (Kommersant, December 28).

In reality, for most politically diverse and self-centric states in Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East, the experiences of interacting with Russia serve as a warning about the risks of aggressive autocracy to global development (Nezavisimaya gazeta, December 24).

Russia has little to offer to countries seeking to accelerate modernization.

These countries are perfectly aware that Moscow is compelled to provide every natural resource and economic niche available to China. Beijing’s claims of being an answer to aspirations in the Global South are far from convincing.

Even so, countries in the Global South have every reason to take for granted Russia’s readiness to follow the course set by Beijing and responsiveness to reservations expressed by Chinese Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping (Riddle, December 26). ?

Political elites categorically deny the apparent reduction in Russia’s international status to that of a troublemaker, which inevitably narrows many of their perspectives and agendas (Moscow times, December 28).

By some accounts, the preference of Russian public opinion for ending the war rather than striving to achieve victory seems to be growing steadily (Re-Eussia.net, December 12). Habitual hopes for a better year ahead are mixed with sour expectations of more of the same, leaving the season of festivities lacking joy (Republic.ru, December 28). Pretenses of normalcy cannot camouflage the grim reality of an unwinnable war. As official discourse on traditional values departs further from the reality of social demoralization, it still determines the boundaries of acceptable behavior for the Kremlin (Novayagazeta.ru, December 30).? ?

The apt symbol of Russia’s current circumstances for the past year is the crash of the much-trumpeted Russian mission to the Moon, leading to a purge at state corporation Roscosmos (Izvestiya, December 14). This contrasts the successes of space programs in many other countries, from ambitious India to improbable North Korea.

There was one “success” that defined the hidden disarray in Russia’s domestic affairs: the suppression of the Wagner Group mutiny on June 23 and 24.

Putin will avoid mentioning this victory by reciting fake triumphs, as the liquidation of Yevgeny Prigozhin cannot erase the Kremlin leader’s personal responsibility for empowering the criminal entrepreneur (Meduza.io, December 30). ?

After the shocks of 2022, many Russians may find comfort in the perception of the gradual stabilization and normalization of the past 12 months, which they hope will continue in 2024.

The reality is that stabilization will likely mean steady economic degradation and a mutation of Putin’s autocracy into dictatorship. Normalization amounts to acceptance of the continued decay of the demoralized society, though the Russian population prefers not to openly acknowledge it.? ?

The war in Ukraine continues to scar and traumatize Russia. Millions of its citizens who either opted to escape or are compelled to wait it out in internal migration find it increasingly difficult to understand their country.

Russia’s leaders, who inhabit the bubble of servile loyalty and self-deceiving propaganda, have an even more distorted understanding.

One proposition that the Kremlin continues to mention now and again, but cannot possibly contemplate acting upon, is the call for a ceasefire and subsequent peace treaty. Ukraine will never agree to such a prospect so long as Russia occupies its sovereign territory. As a result, Ukrainian forces will have to endure more tragic losses and painful sacrifices in the new year before they break the Russian pattern of war-making and open the road to a renewed, stable peace in Europe.??? ? ?


Lavrov Asserts Russian Success Among ‘Global Majority’ ?

Boris Bondarev ?

On December 28, 2023, Russian state-owned news agency RIA Novosti conducted a comprehensive interview with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov (Ministry of International Affairs of the Russian Federation (MID), December 28, 2023). The ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the broader context of global politics have brought the need for a thorough reevaluation of the West’s understanding and response to Russian actions and strategies into sharp focus. Analyzing Lavrov’s recent statements provides critical insights into Russia’s projected goals and perceived strengths. These insights reveal the necessity for the West to recalibrate its approach toward Russia and counter Moscow’s aggressive revisionist narrative. ?

Lavrov’s narrative is woven around themes that serve the Kremlin’s strategic interests while undermining the Western response. His emphasis on “demilitarization and denazification” in Ukraine is a clear sign that Moscow’s goals in the war against Ukraine have not changed. As Russia sees it, a free and independent Ukraine cannot exist. This reality must be fully understood by Western populations and politicians, who still seem to be falling for the false narratives that the war is a “local, regional land dispute” and that Russian President Vladimir Putin can somehow be satisfied with only a portion of Ukrainian territory. The recent bombardment and air strikes on Ukrainian cities clearly show Moscow’s resolve to eradicate whoever stands in the way of the Kremlin, including Putin and his loyal esquire Lavrov (CurrentTime, January 2;?Kolezev, January 3). They will stop at nothing to get what they want: a total military victory over Ukraine and, consequently, the West itself.? ?

Lavrov also discussed the expansion of the BRICS format (originally a loose grouping of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa). He mentioned that many countries, especially in the developing world, have yet to support Western policy toward Russia, specifically economic and personal sanctions. The foreign minister presented this as a shared global perception of the situation that underlines a reluctance to align with the West against Russia. ?

In the interview, Lavrov used the term “World Majority” in reference to countries that have not “publicly declared [Russia] as an enemy” (MID, December 28, 2023). This marks a significant rhetorical shift. By framing the BRICS format as a representation of the global majority, Moscow hopes to project an image of widespread international support for its actions. This portrayal is a calculated move to counter the perception of Russia’s global isolation and challenge the legitimacy of Western responses to the Ukraine crisis. The term “World Majority” can become a substitute for “Global South,” as it flatters the ambitions and self-assessments of many emerging economies and developing nations. These new rhetoric subtleties should not be overlooked. ?

Lavrov’s discourse on expanding BRICS encapsulates a broader vision that the Kremlin promotes: a significant shift from a Western-dominated world order to a more multipolar global structure (MID, December 28, 2023). Lavrov’s remarks about BRICS and the global movement away from Western dominance reflect a strategic narrative aimed at challenging the current geopolitical status quo. In his view, BRICS represents an economic alliance and a geopolitical counterweight to Western influence. He perceives this group as a cornerstone of the emerging multipolar world, suggesting that the influence and dominance of Western countries are waning. ?

Lavrov’s promotion of BRICS expansion connects to the broader goal of limiting Western economic dominance, particularly the global financial system’s shift away from reliance on the US dollar (MID, December 28, 2023). The Russian foreign minister sees BRICS as a pivotal part of this shift, advocating for the development of alternative financial mechanisms and institutions that could counterbalance the Western-dominated global financial system. This push for “de-dollarization” aligns with Russia’s efforts to insulate itself from Western economic sanctions and encourage other nations to follow suit (see EDM,?September 27,?December 13, 2022).

This narrative resonates with countries that feel marginalized or constrained by the largely unipolar nature of the current global order, offering an alternative alignment that promises greater autonomy and influence. By framing BRICS as a champion for a more equitable global order, Russia positions itself as a leader in reshaping global power dynamics. ?

The discussion then turned to the direction of the war in Ukraine. Lavrov suggested a possible shift in Western tactics, given that the goal of causing Russia’s “strategic defeat” has failed in his mind. He insinuates that the West is looking for a face-saving way out of the conflict while still claiming a victory for Ukraine. Additionally, Lavrov mentioned the Copenhagen format, a diplomatic initiative excluding Russia that is aimed at rallying international support for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s peace plan (Lenta.Ru, October 26, 2023). Lavrov dismisses this as unrealistic and indicative of the West’s failed strategies. ? Lavrov’s confident assertion that the West’s goal to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia has failed highlights a perceived weakness in Western policy. This perception stems from the lack of a clear, long-term strategic vision regarding Ukraine and broader Russian aggression. The absence of articulated strategic goals gives the impression of a tactical rather than strategic response, which Moscow interprets as a lack of Western resolve. ?

Given these insights, the West must adopt a more cohesive and strategic approach. This would involve moving beyond reactive measures such as sanctions and military support to develop a more cohesive long-term strategy. The renewed approach should articulate clear objectives, not only for the immediate resolution of the Ukraine conflict but also for a future European security framework that addresses the Kremlin’s revisionist policies.? ?

The lack of a convincing response to Putin’s aggression will eventually lead many countries to seriously rethink their alliances with the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. They may also revive their interest in developing nuclear weapons, which seem to be the only working deterrent in today’s global landscape. ? The conflict in Ukraine and Russia’s broader geopolitical maneuvers call for a reevaluation of Western strategy. At a minimum, a clear, well-defined strategy is necessary. In the words of Ancient Roman philosopher Seneca, “If a man knows not to which port he sails, no wind is favorable.” ? ?

Some?Neighbors?Look at Georgia’s?Europeanization?With?Hope,?Others?With?Suspicion ?

Beka Chedia ?

On??December 14, 2023, the European Union granted official candidate status to Georgia?(Twitter.com/CharlesMichel,December 14, 2023;?European Commission, accessed January 2).

The decision?will presumably have a significant impact on the geopolitics of the South Caucasus. Inspired by Brussels’ pronouncement, Georgia intends to overtake Ukraine and Moldova on their path to EU membership, an objective the ruling elite have begun to declare publicly (Netgazeti.ge, December 22, 2023).?The Georgian Dream government announced in an action plan presented on December 25?that, in a year, it hopes to open a dialogue with Brussels on official membership?(Government of Georgia, December 25, 2023).

The accelerated steps taken by Tbilisi to join the European Union will entail significant changes for the wider region. ?

Georgia’s neighbors had a range of reactions to this historic development.

Türkiye, which has already been granted EU candidate status, met the approval of the new EU expansion package with some skepticism and resentment, as its prospective membership to the 27-member bloc has effectively stalled. Ankara declared that Türkiye “had long earned the right to join the bloc but was being kept waiting for political reasons.” Turkish President Tayyip Recep Erdogan has avoided the topic of Georgia’s candidate status and predicted that “the European Union will stall Ukraine and Moldova’s accession” (Ekathimineri.com, December 19, 2023). ?

The Azerbaijani government expressed congratulations for Georgia’s new status, while the public held contrasting views. President Ilham Aliyev stated, “We fully understand Georgia’s desire to join the European Union, and I wish our Georgian friends success on this path” (Interpressnews.ge, December 6, 2023). Azerbaijan is a participant in the EU’s Eastern Partnership with Georgia. Aliyev added that his country and Georgia could present themselves as a “united, strategically important team in Europe” (Agenda.ge, December 6, 2023). Azerbaijan has started discussing the possible creation of a “Benelux-style model for regional integration” with the participation of Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia??(Agenda.ge, December 7, 2023).

It is still unclear how realistic the new integration project will be. Georgia is an EU candidate, while Armenia and Azerbaijan are only Eastern Partners. In a wider sense, Tbilisi hopes to create a model of cooperation not only with the countries of the South Caucasus but with the governments of the Black Sea region as well.

? According to some Azerbaijani sources, many have expressed displeasure with Georgia’s candidate status. Some even went so far as to assert that “Tbilisi is a hub for the Azerbaijani opposition.” One source posted on X (formerly Twitter) called Tbilisi “the capital of the Caucasus” and mentioned that “whatever direction Georgia takes, it affects the [whole] region”?Twitter.com/Samed_shixi,??December 16, 2023).

Another Azerbaijani X user quotes the words of Zahid Oruj, a member of the Azerbaijani parliament from the ruling elite: “A small country like Georgia is incapable of altering the geopolitics of the region with this kind of decision. The various scenarios of the [European Union] will come to a standstill and discontinue in the future, and in the end, Azerbaijan will be the savior of Georgians”??(Twitter.com/AltayRashidoglu, December 15, 2023). ?

In granting candidate status to Georgia, the European Union has officially entered the South Caucasus.

This includes the presumptive Europeanization of the entire region in the foreseeable future. Over the long term, the European Union may pursue the goal of stimulating democratic changes in Georgia and the South Caucasus as a whole.

Such a prospect, fraught with loss of power, may frighten the current Georgian Dream government and neighboring Azerbaijan.

The European Union’s entry into the South Caucasus as a player promoting democracy is perceived in Azerbaijan with caution and some suspicion.? ? Armenia sees beneficial consequences for itself in Georgia achieving EU candidate status. Yerevan has participated in the EU’s Eastern Partnership for many years. Armenian authorities, however, have only recently—against the backdrop of a “misunderstanding” with the Kremlin—begun to demonstrate a growing openness to integration with the European Union.?In response to Georgia’s candidate status,?President of the Armenian National Assembly?Alen Simonyan stated that it was “an important event for the entire region”?(Gruziya Online, December 22, 2023).? ?

The decision to award EU candidate status to Georgia opens a path to Europe for Armenia. After the collapse of the self-proclaimed quasi-state of “Nagorno-Karabakh” and the betrayal of its ally Russia, Yerevan has been left with few partners in the region. As a result, the country is in the process of searching for new international patrons. For many years, Armenia could communicate with the outside world, especially with Russia, through Tbilisi. Now, Georgia can become a bridge between Yerevan and Brussels.? ?

Some sources indicate that Armenian may have carried out behind-the-scenes work to facilitate Georgia attaining candidate state.?The Georgian ambassador to Armenia,?Giorgi Sharvashidze, commenting on a completely different topic, let slip that “Armenia has done a lot of lobbying work” on our behalf?(Facebook.com/TVpirveli.ge, December 26, 2023).

Neither side has reported further on these rumors.?The transit of military equipment from France to Armenia through Georgian territory, however, seems to have played a role in this situation?(Radio Tavisupleba, November 13, 2023).

Georgia may have been pushed to authorize the action in exchange for Armenia’s lobbying support.

Immediately after Georgia received EU candidate status,?Yerevan expressed hope that it would soon be possible to establish a strategic partnership between the two countries (Gruziya Online, December 22, 2023).? ?

Russia responded to Georgia’s EU by provoking radical ultra-right groups within the country. These small, but aggressive pro-Russian groups started a serial campaign in which they began to burn EU flags (outwardly imitating Middle Eastern extremists) and broadcasted it on social media networks (Facebook.com/Formula, December 20, 2023).

The anti-European ritual also involved certain priests of the Georgian Orthodox Church who sympathize with the Kremlin. Overall, the church and its patriarch personally welcomed the European Union’s decision to award Georgia candidate status and characterized it as an opportunity to increase Tbilisi’s political influence internationally?(Patriarchate of Georgia,?December 15, 2023). ?

With EU candidate status, Georgia’s political weight in the wider region has increased and will likely continue to grow. The country now holds the keys to the possible Europeanization of the entire South Caucasus.

Under the Georgian Dream government (which is taking Moscow's interests into account), it is unlikely that Tbilisi will be able to cope with this historic task. Georgia itself, however, will strive to move ever closer to official EU membership with fervor and push the South Caucasus in a more westward geopolitical direction.

Eurasia Daily Monitor - Jamestown

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Future Minerals Forum 2024: Mineral innovation acceleration park announced at ministerial roundtable

The meeting marks the beginning of the third edition of Future Minerals Forum.

RIYADH: High-level ministers from more than 77 countries are gathering in Riyadh today to discuss challenges in the mining and metals sector.

The meeting marks the beginning of the third edition of Future Minerals Forum, a three-day event focusing on the future of the industry.

China, the US and the UK are represented, along with ministers from the EU, Germany and Russia.

The Gulf Cooperation Council, the World Bank, and the UN also have a presence at the meeting, according to the Saudi Press Agency.

The focus of Future Minerals Forum 2023 will be on promoting a green mineral supply chain, and?leveraging reliable hydrogen and renewable energy sources.?

Saudi Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Bandar Alkhorayef told the meeting: “I am proud to announce today the creation of a mineral innovation acceleration park. A partnership between King Abdulaziz City For Science And Technology, the Ministry of Industry and Mineral Resources, the National Industrial and Logistics Program and the Saudi Geological Survey.”

Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Bandar Alkhorayef opened the meeting and said: “We have a global commitment. We have momentum, and our topics are resonating with governments and stakeholders everywhere.”

He went on to say he is “extremely proud of what we have achieved together from past discussions.”

Future Minerals Forum 2024: Mineral innovation acceleration park announced at ministerial roundtable (arabnews.com)

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