Saudi Arabia was the world’s third-highest crude oil and condensate producer, the world’s top crude oil exporter, and OPEC’s top crude oil producer in 2023.1
As part of its OPEC+ membership, Saudi Arabia agreed to 0.5 million barrels per day (b/d) in additional crude oil production cuts that began in May 2023. In June 2024, OPEC+ extended these cuts through December 2025. Saudi Arabia unilaterally cut an additional 1.0 million b/d of OPEC+ production starting in July 2023, which (at the time of writing) it plans to gradually restore from November 2024 through the end of 2025.2
Saudi Arabia seeks to increase its electricity generation capacity from natural gas and renewable energy sources as part of the country’s Vision 2030.3 The Saudi Power Procurement Company (SPPC) awarded bids for four natural gas-fired power plant projects in October 2023 and began receiving bids for four additional projects in January 2024. Each project has 1.8 gigawatts (GW) of additional capacity.4 Saudi Arabia’s government has over 21 GW in planned renewable energy projects as of mid-2024, the majority of which are for solar power.5
Petroleum and other liquids
Saudi Arabia produced 9.5 million b/d of crude oil in 2023, a 9% decrease from 10.4 million b/d in 2022. This decrease reflects OPEC+ production cuts from 2023 intended to balance the market amid increased production from non-member countries. Total liquid fuels production in Saudi Arabia decreased 8%, from 12.1 million b/d in 2022 to 11.1 million b/d in 2023 (Figure 2).6
Saudi Arabia produces five grades of crude oil: Arabian Heavy, Arabian Medium, Arabian Light, Arabian Extra Light, and Arabian Super Light. In general, the majority of Saudi Arabia’s crude oil is considered sour because its sulfur content is greater than 1% (Table 2).7
In January 2024, Saudi Aramco, Saudi Arabia’s national oil company (NOC), halted plans to expand crude oil production capacity to 13 million b/d by 2027, which would have been a 1 million b/d increase from the its stated capacity of 12 million b/d in 2023.8 Saudi Aramco had large expansion projects scheduled for the Safaniya, Manifa, Zuluf, Marjan, and Berri oil fields as part of previously planned capacity increases. Saudi Aramco canceled the bid process for Safaniya and Manifa development projects. However, construction and engineering activity continued for the Majan, Berri, and Zuluf oil fields, which Saudi Aramco plans to use to maintain maximum sustainable capacity at 12 million b/d while allowing currently producing reservoirs to decline more quickly (Table 3).9
Saudi Arabia accounted for nearly 40% of the Middle East’s oil consumption in 2023 and was the world’s fifth-highest consumer of liquid fuels after the United States, China, India, and Russia. Total liquid fuels consumption in Saudi Arabia increased 2% year over year, from 3.6 million b/d in 2022 to 3.7 million b/d in 2023.10
Saudi Arabia held an estimated 17% of the world’s proved oil reserves and 22% of OPEC’s proved reserves in 2023, according to OPEC data. Saudi Arabia’s reserves include Ghawar and Safaniya, the world’s largest onshore and offshore oil fields, respectively (Figure 3).11
Petroleum product output in Saudi Arabia declined 9% from 2.8 million b/d in 2022 to 2.5 million b/d in 2023, a 76% average utilization rate for Saudi Aramco’s 3.3 million-b/d domestic refining capacity (Table 4). Gasoline and distillates made up 67% of Saudi Arabia’s petroleum product output in 2023. This proportion increased by an average of 1.5% each year in the 10-year period from 2014 to 2023, which was primarily driven by increased middle distillate production from Saudi Arabia’s SATORP, YASREF, and Jazan refineries, which came online in 2014, 2015, and 2021, respectively (Figure 4).12
Map of major oil and natural gas fields in Saudi Arabia
Natural gas
Saudi Arabia meets all of its natural gas consumption with domestic production. The country produced 4.3 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of dry natural gas in 2022 and 2023, remaining flat year over year because of decreased crude oil production and associated natural gas production (Figure 5).13
As of 2021, Saudi Aramco expected domestic demand for natural gas to grow 3.7% per year until 2030 because of increased demand for natural gas-fired power generation.14 In 2023, nonassociated natural gas, which has been generally increasing as share of total natural gas production since 2003, represented 51% of natural gas production in Saudi Arabia, up from 48% in 2022.15 Nonassociated natural gas allows Saudi Arabia to meet domestic natural gas demand despite shifts in crude oil production that limit associated natural gas output.16
Saudi Arabia holds the world’s sixth-largest proved natural gas reserves after Russia, Iran, Qatar, the United States, and Turkmenistan.17
Jafurah, the largest unconventional natural gas field in Saudi Arabia, contains 229 Tcf in natural gas reserves, which includes 15 Tcf of additional proved reserves announced by the Saudi government in early 2024. Jafurah is under development, and initial start-up is planned for late 2025. Saudi Aramco expects natural gas production to reach 2.0 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) by 2030 (Figure 3).18
Saudi Arabia has six major natural gas processing facilities (Table 5). Saudi Aramco’s Fadhili natural gas plant is the company’s first nonassociated natural gas plant for both onshore and offshore fields, and in April 2024, Saudi Aramco awarded contracts to increase the Fadhili plant’s processing capacity from 2.5 Bcf/d to 4 Bcf/d by the end of 2027. The plant became fully operational in 2021, and Saudi Aramco expects the planned increase to support Saudi Arabia’s goal to increase natural gas production.19
Saudi Arabia ranked as the 10th-highest natural gas flaring country by volume for 2023. That year, it flared 88 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of associated natural gas at an average intensity of 25 cubic feet per barrel (cf/b), up from 66 Bcf at an average intensity of 17 cf/b in 2022.20
Electricity
Saudi Arabia generated an estimated 453 terawatthours (TWh) of electricity in 2023, with 62% from natural gas, 38% from oil, and less than 1% from renewables. Natural gas-fired electricity generation increased 8% year over year, from 260 TWh in 2022 to 280 TWh in 2023. Renewable-based electricity generation increased 153% year over year, from 1 TWh to 3 TWh. Oil-fired electricity generation remained relatively flat (Figure 6).21
Total electricity consumption in Saudi Arabia increased 6% year over year, from 372 TWh in 2021 to 393 TWh in 2022. The Middle East Economic Survey reports that annual electricity consumption increased another 5% in 2023 and increases continued through the first half of 2024.22
Increases in Saudi Arabia’s electricity consumption, especially during peak summer season, have led to greater oil-fired power generation. Monthly burn of crude oil and fuel oil in Saudi Arabia reached 1.419 million b/d in June 2024, the country’s highest since June 2022 (1.481 million b/d) (Figure 7). Oil-fired power generation supplements natural gas-fired power and renewables-based power to help meet demand for electricity, especially during peak summer months, despite continued increases in capacity from other sources.23
Water desalination represented 6% of Saudi Arabia’s electricity consumption in 2020, and the Saudi Water Authority (SWA) expects water desalination capacity to exceed 3.4 billion gallons per day (gal/d) across 43 operating desalination plants in 2024. In 2021, Saudi Arabia desalinated nearly 1.6 billion gal/d of water across 32 plants.24
Saudi Arabia plans to increase the country’s natural gas power plant capacity from 46% of total power generation capacity in 2022 to 50% by 2030, continuing operations of its existing natural gas power plants and constructing several planned power plants (Table 6 and Table 7).25
Saudi Arabia’s National Renewable Energy Program (NREP) had 5 GW in planned project capacity for renewables in 2020, mostly for solar power. Five of these projects (2.8 GW) represented Saudi Arabia’s installed renewable energy capacity at the end of 2023 (Table 8).26
Saudi Arabia’s government seeks to have renewable energy sources represent 50% of electricity generation capacity by 2030, up from 3% at the end of 2023, with over 21 GW in planned renewable energy projects as of mid-2024. From those projects, 9.7 GW are planned for completion through 2026 (Table 9).27
In June 2024, Saudi Arabia launched NREP’s Geographic Survey Project for Renewable Energy. The survey will install 1,200 solar and wind energy measuring stations across more than 328,000 square miles to identify potential development sites for renewable energy projects. 28
Energy trade
Crude oil and petroleum product exports from Saudi Arabia represented 34% and 26%, respectively, of OPEC exports in 2023. Saudi Arabia exported 7.0 million b/d of crude oil in 2023, down 5% from 7.4 million b/d in 2022, because of decreased oil production. Saudi Arabia’s petroleum product exports declined 8% year over year, from 1.4 million b/d in 2022 to 1.3 million b/d in 2023 (Figure 8).29
Asia is Saudi Arabia’s primary export market for crude oil, receiving 75% of Saudi Arabia’s total annual crude oil exports in 2023. China, Japan, South Korea, and India were its top crude oil importers (Figure 9).30
Saudi Arabia shipped 42% (6.2 million b/d) of the crude oil that transited the Strait of Hormuz in 2023. The Strait of Hormuz is the seaborne entrance to the Persian Gulf and one of the world’s most important oil transit chokepoints. Most exports of petroleum and natural gas from the Persian Gulf to Europe and North America pass through several chokepoints, including the Strait of Hormuz, the Suez Canal or the SUMED pipeline, and the Bab el-Mandeb (Figure 10).31
Saudi Arabia can circumvent the Strait of Hormuz and Bab El-Mandeb by transporting crude oil to the Red Sea via the country’s 5 million b/d East-West crude oil pipeline, which is temporarily expandable to 7 million b/d when needed (Figure 10).32
The proportion of seaborne crude oil exports from Saudi Arabia originating from Yanbu, the country’s primary crude oil export terminal on the Red Sea, reached a record 18% in the second quarter of 2024 (Figure 11).33 In early 2024, Saudi Aramco began exporting Arab Heavy from Yanbu, which is usually exported from Saudi Arabia’s gulf coast, to circumvent ongoing threats of Houthi attacks on cargo vessels going through the Bab el-Mandeb.34
Saudi Arabia imported 375,000 b/d of seaborne fuel oil in June 2024, a monthly record since at least 2019 and a 57% increase year over year from 239,000 b/d in June 2023 (Figure 12). Driven by domestic electricity demand and discounted prices, fuel oil imports from Russia to Saudi Arabia began to increase in the summer of 2022, until Russia banned fuel exports in 2023. After Russia’s export ban was lifted in early 2024, by July 2024, over 40% of Saudi Arabia’s monthly seaborne fuel oil imports originated from Russia.35
Saudi Arabia exported 0.4 TWh of electricity in 2022 and imported 0.3 TWh of electricity, each remaining flat compared with 2021.36 Electricity from Saudi Arabia can be traded through interconnected electricity grids between member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, and Oman.37
In partnership with the Gulf Cooperation Council Interconnection Authority (GCCIA), Saudi Arabia officially launched a 1-GW electricity interconnection project with Iraq in 2023, connecting Arar, in northern Saudi Arabia, with Baghdad.38 Saudi Arabia expects an electricity interconnection project with Egypt to be fully operational by 2026. The project, initially launched in 2022, could transmit up to 3 GW of electricity between the two countries.39
Endnotes
U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Statistics database (accessed August 2024); OPEC, Annual Statistical Bulletin, Data download, Crude oil production in OPEC and non-OPEC DoC Members (accessed August 2024); OPEC, Annual Statistical Bulletin, Data download, World crude oil exports by country (accessed August 2024).
U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Statistics database (accessed July 2024); U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook Data Browser (accessed July 2024).
World Bank, Global Gas Flaring Reduction Partnership (GGFR), Global Gas Flaring Tracker (accessed August 2024).
U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Statistics database (accessed July 2024); Energy Institute, Statistical Review of World Energy, 2023; Electricity generation for 2023 is estimated based on year-over-year growth rates from Energy Institute's Statistical Review of World Energy.
Joint Organisations Data Initiative, Oil World Database (accessed August 2024); U.S. Energy Information Administration, “Country Analysis Brief: Saudi Arabia,” October 11, 2023.
Energy Institute, Statistical Review of World Energy, 2023; OPEC, Annual Statistical Bulletin, Data download, World exports of petroleum products by country (accessed August 2024); OPEC, Annual Statistical Bulletin, Data download, OPEC Members’ crude oil exports by destination (accessed August 2024).
Global Trade Tracker, Analytics, Country Level Tradeflows (accessed August 2024); Vortexa Energy Flows Analytics (accessed August 2024).
Since 2014, and especially since 2022, Russia’s economy has been subjected to severe international sanctions.
Yet assessments of their impact vary greatly. Russian President Vladimir Putin and his cronies boast that the sanctions make Russia stronger, but they incessantly call for all restrictions to be lifted. At the same time, many claim that the sanctions have had little impact, while others argue that this is because the sanctions are too timid.
My own view is that the current sanctions regime shaves off 2%-3% of gross domestic product each year, condemning Russia to near stagnation. Moreover, the situation will get only worse for Putin, perhaps even impeding his campaign of aggression against Ukraine.
At the Yalta Europe Strategy Conference in Kyiv on Sept. 14, Kyrylo Budanov, a Ukrainian general, reported that Ukrainian military intelligence has obtained Russian documents suggesting that the Kremlin wants to sue for peace at the end of 2025 for economic reasons. Whether true or not, this scenario would make sense. The financial, technological and demographic hurdles facing the Russian economy are more formidable than is commonly understood and Putin’s war has already made history for both its cruelty and its stupidity.
Regardless of the outcome on the battlefield, Russia will be the biggest loser. Wars are costly and the Russian economy has grown by only 1% per year, on average, since it illegally seized Ukrainian territory in 2014. Russian GDP has slumped from $2.3 trillion in 2013 to $1.9 trillion in current dollars.
No longer a superpower, Russia is what the late U.S. Sen. John McCain memorably called “a gas station masquerading as a country.” In fact, its unreliability has reduced its credibility as an energy supplier. The only sectors of the Russian economy that are growing are the military and related infrastructure, where state-owned companies sell to the state at (probably inflated) administered prices. The rest of the economy is flat at best.
This is exactly what previously happened in the Soviet Union, where the economist Grigory Khanin and journalist Vasily Selyunin detected hidden annual inflation of about 3% per year. One indicator of this today is that the Russian central bank maintains an interest rate of 19%, while claiming that annual inflation is only 9.1%. Nobody should believe such figures. Most likely, the authorities are repackaging inflation as real growth.
Hidden inflation also suggests that Western financial sanctions are far more effective than many observers appreciate. Yes, Russia’s total foreign debt fell from $729 billion at the end of 2013 to only $303 billion at the end of March 2024 and its public debt is only 14% of GDP. But this does not help it much, because it cannot borrow abroad. Instead, it must live on tax revenues and reserves and half of its foreign-exchange reserves have been frozen in Western jurisdictions since February 2022. Meanwhile, the liquid reserves in Russia’s national wealth fund have shrunk to $55 billion — or 2.8% of GDP — as of March 2024, from a peak of $183 billion in 2021, and most of the remainder has been invested and is not liquid.
Owing to these constraints, Russia has had to limit its annual budget deficit to 2% of GDP year since its full-scale invasion (2022-24). With a GDP of $1.9 trillion, such deficits cost about $40 billion per year, implying that state reserves should run out next year, as Budanov indicated. Though Russia is raising its personal and corporate income taxes, this will not help much in a stagnant economy and the government cannot sell many bonds domestically.
Western technology sanctions also continue to bite. Not only is Russia extremely isolated, but the mass emigration of its educated young people, Soviet-like repression and Putin’s kleptocracy have aggravated its technological backwardness. The Kremlin has managed to alleviate the worst effects by purchasing sanctioned Western technology from China, Turkey and Central Asian countries; but the West has gradually closed off these channels through secondary sanctions.
At the same time, Russia’s arms exports have collapsed, because it needs all of them for its own use. Much to its shame, the Kremlin has been forced to import artillery shells from its even more backward neighbor, North Korea. While Russia’s production has continued, its arms have proven substandard. It is worth remembering that Nazi Germany’s own arms production peaked in July 1944 despite months of intense Western bombing. Ultimately, it is quality, not quantity, that can make the difference.
Putin is also running out of soldiers. The U.S. estimates that 120,000 Russian soldiers have been killed and another 180,000 injured. Although Putin has just decreed that the Russian military must add 180,000 troops, Russia’s reported unemployment rate of 2.4% suggests that its manpower is already severely constrained. Moreover, given that more than a million healthy Russians fled the country in 2022 alone, many argue that Putin would not dare to call for another major mobilization.
Including all the hidden costs, Russia will probably spend about $190 billion, or 10% of GDP, on the war this year — and that figure presumably represents the peak — given the constraints imposed by Western financial sanctions. Whenever Russia can no longer finance a budget deficit, it will have to cut public expenditures, and its nonmilitary outlays have already been pared to the bone.
By comparison, Ukraine has held Russia in a stalemate by spending about $100 billion per year on the war — half from its own budget and half in kind through arms donated from abroad. Considering that Russia pays its soldiers (and the families of dead soldiers) much more and that its arms are substandard, Ukraine could win the war if it had an additional $50 billion per year as well as a green light to bomb military targets inside Russia.
The West can secure that sum by seizing the $300 billion of frozen Russian sovereign assets. That money is critical to Ukraine’s ability to fend off the aggressor and restore its territorial integrity.
Anders Aslund is the author of "Russia’s Crony Capitalism: The Path from Market Economy to Kleptocracy" (Yale University Press, 2019). ? Project Syndicate, 2024
Cars sit in traffic as they flee the southern villages of Lebanon amid ongoing Israeli airstrikes, in Sidon, Lebanon
In the last few weeks, Israel has reshuffled the decks in Lebanon, and Iran's crown jewel proxy force Hezbollah is facing a crisis as the IDF takes out leader after leader. Iran will try to resist, but the middle eastern powers are now looking at an opputunity to rethink Lebanon without Hezbollah
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who visited Beirut on Friday and Damascus on Saturday, had bad news for Lebanon's people. "We'll stand with Lebanon," he promised, a statement that can only raise a wave of sharp responses on social media. "Iran is sleeping quietly and Lebanon is paying the price," said one man on X. "You've robbed the country and now you're coming to stand with us," posted another furious responder. "Lebanon's destruction is on you," he wrote.
The key question asked on news site and TV interviews with commentators and experts in Lebanon and other Arab countries over the weekend wasn't "whether", but "how" Israel would strike Iran. The possibility that Israel would not respond or that its response would "measured" or "symbolic" was not raised.
The consensus in both Israel and the region's countries is that the Israeli response is fate or an unstoppable natural disaster. But at a time when nerves are frayed, the behavior of Lebanon's provisional Prime Minister Najib Mikati; the strong and influential statesman, Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri, the 86-year old leader of the Shia Amal party; and the heads of Hezbollah's rivals are experienced in trying to draw up a scenario for the day after and try and realize what they have been unable to do for the past three years: agree on the appointment of a president, who will enable the establishment of a government with the authority and consensus to lead Lebanon to diplomatic agreement and end the country's continued devastation.
The leaders of the Gulf States, headed by the Saudi heir, Mohammed Ben Salman, along with the leaders of the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Egypt, France, and the U.S. are partners to the initiative. These countries (except for the UAE) have been trying for two years without success to bring about this Lebanese political miracle, but now, at least some of them, see a new opportunity created by the liquidation of Hezbollah supreme command, especially Hassan Nasrallah, the crushing of its civilian leadership, and the humanitarian disaster created by the Israeli attacks and bombings.
The working assumption is that more than one and a quarter million people have been uprooted from their homes, tens of thousands are homeless, and that more than 200,000 people, most Syrian refugees, but a quarter of whom are Lebanese, have fled to Syria, the war-torn country, which before the war, was considered unsafe for refugees to return to. With non-functioning hospitals, Lebanon's need for humanitarian aid indicates that it is approaching the status of Gaza. The political leadership will have to shake off the traditional political disputes that have driven the country into the worst economic and political crisis since the end of the civil war, and agree to cooperate.
Saudi Arabia is the hardliner in the group, demanding a "technocratic government", a term known from the Palestinian arena, which means the removal of Hezbollah from any political involvement. In effect, Saudi Arabia is proposing for Lebanon a solution similar to the one demanded for Gaza – establishment of an alternative government to Hamas, which will break its civilian grip and the possibility of establishing a government when the war end or when a cease-fire is achieved, if achieved.
But Lebanon is not Gaza. Its ethnic-religious structure not only guarantees the cooperation of the Shia, who are the country's majority, but also Hezbollah as their representative, and it greatly hinders neutralizing the organization from the political system. Egypt and Qatar recognize this difficulty and they are not demanding Hezbollah's removal at this time, but propose a more realistic perspective to the Saudis, under which Hezbollah will be required to make major political concessions on the issue of appointing a president, and in particular to agree to implement U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701.
But within this fabric of discussions, which began last Wednesday when the Gulf States foreign ministers convened in the Qatari capital Doha, some of them also met Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, who was visiting Qatar at the same time. Iran was adamant against the outline. It fears that such an outline is liable to not only remove Hezbollah from the political scene, but Iran itself. Two days later, Iran's foreign minister reiterated Nasrallah's formula for a "simultaneous cease-fire in Gaza and Lebanon"; i.e. Iran has not yet given up linking the two fronts, thereby making it clear to Hezbollah's forces too, that they must continue fighting Israel so long as no cease-fire is announced in Gaza.
But Iran may now find itself facing a different internal-Lebanese front than the one at the start of the war, and the question to be tested now is whether the Lebanese political forces that oppose Hezbollah want and can gain a new political output that can at least force its will on Hezbollah and Iran, even if it cannot fully drive Hezbollah out of politics.
Iran can be expected to fight with all its might against such a result, which could mean the loss of its most important strategic stronghold in the Middle East. Because a Lebanese government without Hezbollah or with a weakened Hezbollah means not just a forced withdrawal of its forces from southern Lebanon to north of the Litani River, but also an effort to disarm it, as prescribed by Resolution 1701.
Iran can also assume that, later, the government will delegitimize the idea of "resistance" that gave Hezbollah its status as the only military body in Lebanon that could deal with the Israeli threat and by virtue thereof earned it a "national" right to bear arms. Lebanon already had such a government that clipped Hezbollah's political wings in 2006, when Fouad Siniora was prime minister, and approved and adopted Resolution 1701.
U.S. special envoy Amos Hochstein meets with Lebanon's caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati in Beirut, Lebanon, August.
That is not the only fear guiding Iranian policy. The appointment of a president who is not considered a Hezbollah supporter – and in this context the name of Lebanese Army Commander General Joseph Aoun has again been raised – and the establishment of a government in which the dominant Shia party is Berri's Amal, would be welcomed by Saudi Arabia, which will again own the house of Lebanon as was the case during the term of the late Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, who was assassinated in 2005, and his son, Saad Hariri.
This means that Saudi Arabia could also be the country that will lead Lebanon's reconstruction, which would also undermine the economic grounds that gave Hezbollah, and Iran, their civilian support. Although diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran were renewed in March 2023, the zero-sum game between the two countries is not over and Iran has not intention of giving up Lebanon. But, just as Nasrallah liked to say, "Developments in the field will dictate policy."
The political harmony between Hezbollah's rivals has not yet ripened, their internecine revulsion and hate rivals what they feel toward Hezbollah, and there is no certainty that even in the face of the destruction of Lebanon will they be able to close ranks. Hezbollah is still demonstrating fighting ability despite the loss of its senior commanders, and the political road map that now appears optimal may disappear if a regional confrontation begins following the expected Israeli strike against Iran.
As a result of a contact to one of us by the Washington Post reporter Evan Hill on October 4, 2024, we learned that the Israelis reportedly bombed the Al Qusayr Underground Facility in Syria (close to the Lebanon border) and another nearby site in Lebanon. For years, the Institute has been following and reporting on this site, where construction started as early as 2009 and continued until recently. We decided to seek and analyze post-attack imagery.
Hill also provided X.com reporting on these strikes. Emanual Fabian, a Times of Israel military correspondent, reported early morning October 4, 2024, that “Israeli fighter jets struck a 3.5 kilometer-long tunnel that crossed between Lebanon and Syria, which the IDF says was used by Hezbollah to smuggle Iranian weapons.” 1 He stated that Hezbollah Unit 4400, tasked with delivering weapons from Iran to its proxies in Lebanon, used the tunnel. Fabian added that a “separate overnight strike targeted “infrastructure” at the Masnaa Border Crossing, between Lebanon and Syria, after the IDF said it identified attempts to deliver Iranian weapons to Hezbollah.”
An anonymous person, Samir, @obretix, soon afterwards highlighted on X.com that the distance between the Al Qusayr site and the building destroyed near the Masnaa Border Crossing is slightly over three kilometers. 2
The recent destruction described in Fabian’s reporting can be seen in commercial satellite imagery on October 5, 2024. Imagery showed that the sites were intact during the daytime of October 3rd. Based on a Google Earth derived elevation profile, a tunnel from Al Qusayr to the building in Lebanon is feasible.
Background on Institute Work on Al Qusayr
The Institute’s focus on Al Qusayr resulted from a decision to follow up a 2015 Der Spiegel report stating a nuclear connection with the Syrian Al Kibar reactor destroyed by Israel in 2007. Prior to its destruction, the Al Kibar reactor was an unfinished plutonium production reactor at Al Kibar that was being built with North Korean assistance. An unanswered question after the 2007 bombing was the location and fate of the many tonnes of uranium fuel that North Korea had shipped to Syria for this reactor. Our investigations could not confirm any link between Al Qusayr and the Al Kibar reactor project, however the site appeared to serve an important military purpose and long-term ongoing internal excavation was evident from satellite imagery. Our more recent analysis, including extensive commercial imagery of the site, are below:
Using a MAXAR October 5, 2024, image, the Institute’s bomb damage assessment finds that there were likely multiple strikes on each of three main buildings at Al Qusayr that had provided underground access (Figures 1 and 2). Two other bomb craters can be seen in the vicinity. One crater was centered on the Security Checkpoint at the entrance to the Al Qusayr facility (which could have damaged some service utility structures (water and power) that were known to have served the site. The second crater, measuring eight meters in diameter, was near the entrance road between the checkpoint and the underground entrance area. The likely ventilation structure uphill from the facility, identified in earlier Institute studies, had not been hit.
The Institute obtained commercial satellite imagery of the second site in Lebanon situated 3.1 kilometers from the Al Qusayr Underground Facility showing that it was also completely destroyed between October 3, 2024, and October 5, 2024. (We are naming this building as the Mrah El Zakbeh site, given that this is the name of the closest hamlet). The Mrah El Zakbeh site consisted of a single large drive-in revetted building set into a cut-out hillside where a tunnel could be accessed (See Figures 3, 4, and 5). It also had a small solar panel array on the roof as seen in Figure 4. Note that on the shadowed northwest side there appears to have been a large ventilation type grid set into the hillside. So, it was not merely a retaining wall, there is/was likely something inside the hill. Figure 5, Google Earth images from February 9, 2021 (top) and June 17, 2023 (bottom) show that the building was butted up to the hillside, and had a large drive through door on its southeast side.
A Google Earth derived elevation profile between the two destroyed sites shows that it is indeed possible that the two sites could have been connected via a tunnel. See Figure 6.
Last Word
The Israeli statement is credible that these two long-standing sites were part of a transportation system to move arms from Iran to proxies in Lebanon. It is still worth knowing, or at least eliminating the possibility that the Al Qusayr site had other purposes as well such as storage for a host of illicit materials that could have included nuclear or missile related materiel.
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