Saturday S.A.

There is a concept in Defence, National Security and Law Enforcement that known as situational awareness. In short - understanding and awareness of what is occurring in your environment and in particular recognising warning signs of an imminent threat. I thought it'd be worthwhile scanning the week and collecting my thoughts on the current context - Saturday Situational Awareness and three key events that caught my attention this week...

1?? This is one wild Lame Duck period. With Trump's election victory, the Biden administration's time in power is fast coming to an abrupt end and key figures appear to be trying to accelerate aid and escalate in Ukraine to set conditions for more favourable negotiations once Trump seeks to end the war. We are seeing a tit for tat escalation in Ukraine that is teetering at the brink of an unthinkable expansion of a regional proxy war to something larger.

North Korea's joining of the war was used as the pretext for the US and UK to allow ATACAMS and Storm Shadow strikes in Russia. The long range targeting ATACMS relies upon can only be achieved with US / NATO involvement in the targeting process, which has then been seized on by Russia to trigger an unprecedented use of an IRBM. It is hard not to feel a sense of detachment from a world where escalating

The War Zone has a good article here with an explainer on Russia's use of an Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile.

As always, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Missile Threat micro site is a excellent resource to build your understanding of the weapon systems being employed by both NATO and Russia in this war.

2?? Unintended consequences. So a proxy war in Ukraine between Russia and NATO leads to a more cohesive autocratic alternative to the US dominated rules based global order. Sanctions on Russia and demand for the consumables of combat have led to a Russian - North Korean relationship that has seen an increase in supply of military hardware, military technology assistance and oil for North Korea.

The Guardian is reporting that Russia has provided S400 air defence weapon systems to Pyongyang as part of two way trade that has seen North Korea supply munitions, manpower and self propelled artillery to Russia. I suspect North Korea's missile and space programs will be getting additional support as well. The National Interest describes North Korea as the 'only winner' in the Ukraine War in an article here.

3?? Cable cutting in the Baltic Sea. Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) is reporting on several underwater telecommunication cables being cut in the Baltic Sea. Hybrid warfare has been a feature of the proxy war in Ukraine with the severing of the Nord Stream II being the most notable example. Interestingly as the ABC reports below this incident may have involved a Chinese ship ??

The Danish military is staying close to a Chinese ship in its waters after two underwater telecommunication cables were cut. Some European countries say it was likely an act of sabotage and investigations into the incident have started. Russia has strongly denied any suggestions it was behind the severed cables.

Given the heavy reliance on undersea cables to enable our modern digital world this is something that should be front and centre of Australia's security of critical infrastructure considerations as well. No doubt our potential adversaries have scoped out many if not all of the key conduits of communication in our region.