Sanctions, Red Sea Shocks and the Future of European Security

From bolstering sanctions against Russia to the effects of the Red Sea crisis, War on the Rocks has you covered on what you need to know now. Plus, a conversation with Ankit Panda and Jeffrey Michaels about the future of U.S. extended deterrence in Europe.

Read below.

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Articles

The Red Sea crisis, rather than the beginning of a new era of instability, could mark such an era’s end, and the transition to a new — and perhaps more stable — normal.

Vasabjit Banerjee and Benjamin Tkach reflect on their 2022 piece "Helping India Replace Russia in the Value Arms Market" and whether their recommendations have been taken up.

The gains achieved by the sanctions against Russia have not been as dramatic as some imagined they would be. But that does not mean they are not worth the effort to implement and enforce.?

The surprise of Hamas’ Oct. 7 attacks can be attributed to abundant noise, deception, wishful thinking, groupthink, and failure of imagination. Nevertheless, careful analysis of the case at hand further highlights several additional factors.

Last week, leaders of the Department of the Air Force "unveiled sweeping plans for reshaping, refocusing, and reoptimizing the Air Force and Space Force.”

Lee Hsi-ming’s “Taiwan’s Plan for Victory: An Asymmetric Strategy of Using the Small to Control the Large” (2022) stands out as both a theoretical framework for deterrence and a set of concrete proposals for asymmetric resistance against a People’s Liberation Army invasion.

“While nuclear deterrence theory and rationales for the triad can be mysterious, we can try to understand how the Air Force has developed the numbers for the Sentinel program.”

With the U.S. pivot to Asia and NATO’s renewed focus on the eastern flank of Europe, Italy is now called upon to play a more autonomous role in the increasingly unstable Mediterranean region.

The foreign policy elite descended on Munich again this weekend, primed for beer, brats, and bilats. For all the conviviality, however, a somber mood prevailed this year.?

Today, Americans continue to debate the merits of foreign intervention. But we do so without the input of our leading beer brands.

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Podcasts

In this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Aaron O’Connell sat down with Rob Rakove to discuss Rakove’s new book, "Days of Opportunity: The United States and Afghanistan Before the Soviet Invasion."

On Thursday, a Houthi missile struck a commercial ship in the Gulf of Aden, while another was intercepted en route to the Israeli port of Eilat. Thomas Juneau joined the WarCast to discuss.

Nick sat down with Rob Geist Pinfold to discuss the article, "Hamas Is Returning to Northern Gaza Because Israel Has No Plan for the 'Day After'," which was published on February 16.?

Tom Shugart joined the WarCast to tell us about the failed Trident nuclear missile test and what this says about the efficacy of the United Kingdom’s nuclear deterrent.

Ankit Panda sat down with Jeffrey Michaels to discuss the future of U.S. extended deterrence in Europe.

Aaron sat down with Stephen Wertheim for a debate with Paul Poast about the framing of the Biden administration’s foreign policy, and what role — if any — democracy promotion should play in its execution.

National Assembly elections in Pakistan earlier this month returned a hung parliament and were marred by allegations of mass electoral tampering. Tamanna Salikuddin joined the WarCast to tell us more.

Last week, Nick Danforth sat down with Denise Natali, Doug Ollivant, and Bilal Wahab to discuss the latest in Iraqi politics.