Sanctioned but not Silenced: Putin’s Diplomatic Masterstroke at it's Peak

President Vladimir Putin has long been known for his shrewd political maneuvers, both domestically and internationally. Despite being under heavy sanctions from the West due to the ongoing Ukraine conflict, his diplomatic strategy took center stage at the BRICS 2024 summit held in Kazan, Russia. While many predicted that the summit would focus on the continued economic cooperation between BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), it instead became a geopolitical milestone for resolving one of the most dangerous and simmering tensions in Asia: the conflict between India and China.

The successful mediation of this long-standing conflict was nothing short of a diplomatic masterstroke by Putin. This article delves into how, despite Russia’s pariah status in the West, Putin orchestrated a historic agreement between India and China, bringing the two nuclear-armed giants to the negotiating table. In the process, Russia reaffirmed its relevance in global geopolitics and revitalized the significance of BRICS as a counterbalance to Western-dominated global institutions.

The Geopolitical Context of BRICS 2024: Putin’s Challenge

In the lead-up to the BRICS 2024 summit, Russia found itself increasingly isolated from Western markets and institutions due to the Ukraine conflict. Russia's economy had been under strain from unprecedented sanctions targeting its energy sector, financial institutions, and defense capabilities. Yet despite these challenges, Putin managed to retain strategic alliances with key global powers, especially within the BRICS framework. BRICS nations, notably China and India, maintained neutral stances on the Ukraine war, focusing instead on mutual economic benefits and global governance reforms.

For Putin, the BRICS summit in Kazan is not just another diplomatic forum; it is an opportunity to reassert Russia’s role in the emerging multipolar world. Facing isolation from the West, Russia’s global relevance increasingly hinged on maintaining and strengthening its partnerships with non-Western powers, particularly through platforms like BRICS. What emerged from the 2024 summit is a testimony to Russia’s adept use of multilateralism to serve its geopolitical goals.

The India-China Conflict: A Long-Standing Flashpoint

The India-China conflict centers on the long-disputed border known as the Line of Actual Control (LAC). Spanning thousands of kilometers across the Himalayan region, the LAC has been a continuous flashpoint for the two Asian giants, resulting in multiple military skirmishes since the 1962 Sino-Indian War. Tensions escalated significantly in June 2020, when a deadly clash in the Galwan Valley claimed the lives of 20 Indian soldiers and 35 Chinese soldiers (As per Pentagon Sources). Subsequent incidents and standoffs only heightened the risk of a larger military confrontation, putting pressure on both countries to seek diplomatic solutions.

The persistent nature of the border dispute has impacted not just the bilateral relations between India and China but also the larger geopolitical dynamics in Asia. India, under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has moved closer to the West in recent years, particularly through its membership in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (the Quad), which also includes the U.S., Japan, and Australia. China, meanwhile, has aggressively expanded its global influence through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), further fueling India’s security concerns.

With such divergent geopolitical trajectories, it seemed unlikely that India and China would reach a peaceful resolution without external mediation. This is where Russia’s involvement through the BRICS framework proved instrumental.

NSA Ajit Doval’s September 2024 Visit to Moscow: Laying the Groundwork

The turning point in resolving the India-China conflict came just weeks before the BRICS summit when India’s National Security Advisor (NSA) Shri Ajit Doval visited Moscow in September 2024. The visit marked a critical moment in India’s strategic calculations, indicating its openness to a diplomatic resolution brokered by Russia.

Shri Doval’s trip to Russia followed a period of quiet diplomacy between the Indian and Chinese leaderships. Both countries recognized the need for de-escalation, particularly as they faced growing economic challenges and internal pressures. For India, the ongoing military standoff with China was a distraction from its developmental goals, especially as Modi’s government faced increasing domestic demands for economic growth. For China, the conflict risked diverting attention from its ambitions in Taiwan and the South China Sea, as well as the mounting challenges from its economic slowdown.

During his Moscow visit, Shri Doval met with Russian President Vladimir Putin and high-ranking Russian officials. These discussions laid the groundwork for a potential breakthrough at the upcoming BRICS summit. Russia’s unique position—close ties with both India and China—allowed it to play the role of an honest broker. As Doval and Russian officials discussed potential mechanisms for de-escalation, Putin skillfully navigated the complex diplomatic landscape, balancing Russia’s historical ties with India and its deepening strategic partnership with China.

The BRICS 2024 Summit: Putin’s Diplomatic Mastery on Display

By the time the BRICS 2024 summit was about to get commenced in Kazan, Russia on 22nd October, 2024 the stage was set for significant diplomatic achievements. While the official agenda focused on strengthening economic ties and addressing the challenges of global inflation and energy security, the underlying tension between India and China loomed large.

It was during closed-door negotiations, facilitated by Russia, that India and China finally reached a historic agreement to de-escalate their border tensions. Although the full details of the agreement have not been publicly disclosed, it is understood to include a phased disengagement of troops from key flashpoints along the LAC, as well as the establishment of new communication channels between the two countries’ militaries. Additionally, both nations agreed to resume high-level diplomatic talks to address other outstanding issues related to their border dispute.

Putin’s role in these negotiations was pivotal. By positioning Russia as a neutral intermediary, he ensured that both India and China felt secure enough to engage in dialogue without the fear of losing face. Russia’s strategic interests were also served by preventing a larger conflict between its two most important Asian allies, which could have destabilized the region and weakened the BRICS bloc as a whole.

A Diplomatic Victory for Putin and BRICS

The successful mediation of the India-China conflict before BRICS 2024 represents a significant diplomatic victory for Vladimir Putin. Despite the economic and political challenges Russia faces from Western sanctions, Putin demonstrated that Russia remains a key player in global diplomacy, capable of resolving complex regional conflicts.

For BRICS, the resolution of the India-China conflict underscores the bloc’s growing relevance as a platform for conflict resolution and global governance. Traditionally viewed as an economic forum for emerging markets, BRICS is now evolving into a geopolitical force that can address security and political issues among its members. This shift aligns with Putin’s long-standing vision of BRICS as a counterbalance to Western-dominated institutions like the G7 and the United Nations Security Council.

The expanded membership of BRICS, which now includes countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iran, Egypt and Ethiopia further reinforces the bloc’s global clout. By leveraging BRICS to resolve the India-China conflict, Putin has not only strengthened Russia’s influence within the bloc but also ensured its continued relevance on the global stage.

Russia’s Strategic Gains: Beyond BRICS

Putin’s diplomatic success at BRICS 2024 has broader implications for Russia’s geopolitical strategy. First, it has reinforced Russia’s role as a key player in Asia, particularly in the context of its relationships with India and China. By mediating the India-China conflict, Russia has positioned itself as a critical stabilizing force in the region, countering the narrative that its global influence has diminished due to sanctions and the Ukraine war.

Second, the successful mediation has helped to mitigate the risk of a BRICS split. The rivalry between India and China had long been viewed as a potential threat to the bloc’s unity, with analysts warning that unresolved tensions could derail BRICS’ ability to function as a cohesive unit. By stepping in as a mediator, Putin has ensured that BRICS remains united, with both India and China continuing to see value in their membership.

Finally, the resolution of the India-China conflict has bolstered Putin’s domestic standing. Despite the economic hardships imposed by sanctions, Putin can now point to a major diplomatic victory that showcases Russia’s continued relevance in global affairs. This is particularly important as Putin seeks to consolidate power ahead of future elections and maintain support among Russia’s political elite.

India and China: Strategic Calculations and Benefits

For both India and China, the resolution of the border conflict represents a pragmatic diplomatic move. For India, the agreement allows it to refocus on its economic growth and domestic priorities without the constant distraction of military tensions with China. It also enables India to maintain its strategic autonomy, balancing its relationships with both Russia and the West amidst Nijjar Killings controversy fueled by Canadian Government.

For China, the agreement helps to de-escalate one of its most contentious regional disputes, allowing it to concentrate on its broader strategic goals, including its ambitions in Taiwan and the South China Sea. By resolving the conflict through BRICS, China also reinforces its commitment to multilateral diplomacy, a key pillar of its foreign policy.

The Long-Term Impact on BRICS and Global Governance

The resolution of the India-China conflict under Putin’s guidance demonstrates that BRICS is not just an economic bloc but a serious geopolitical player. For years, the Western-led international system, including institutions like the United Nations and NATO, has dominated global security decisions. However, with the successful mediation between two of the world’s most populous and powerful nations, BRICS has shown that emerging powers can handle complex regional conflicts through diplomatic means. This signals the possible formation of a new multipolar world order where Western hegemony is counterbalanced by cooperation among rising powers in the Global South.

This event also solidifies Russia’s role within BRICS. Despite the Ukraine conflict and heavy sanctions, Russia under Putin remains indispensable within the bloc. This demonstrates that sanctions, while impactful, have not diminished Russia’s ability to influence global politics, particularly in its own neighborhood and among non-Western powers. Putin's leadership in the summit marked Russia's resurgence as a mediator in conflicts outside of its immediate vicinity, setting a precedent for future roles in other international conflicts.

Strengthening BRICS Unity

India and China’s rivalry had been viewed as one of the biggest threats to BRICS’ cohesion. The potential for discord between these two nations could have weakened the bloc and undermined its ability to operate as a unified entity on the world stage. However, by brokering peace between these two nations, Putin has ensured that BRICS will remain united and effective in its geopolitical goals.

This newfound unity comes at a critical time, as BRICS continues to expand its membership. With new members like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iran, Ethiopia and Egypt joining the bloc, the need for internal stability is more important than ever. The successful mediation of the India-China conflict provides a blueprint for how BRICS can manage internal tensions in the future, further cementing the bloc’s relevance in global affairs.

The Role of Economic Diplomacy

While the focus of the BRICS 2024 summit is largely on the diplomatic achievements, economic cooperation remains at the core of the bloc’s agenda. By resolving the India-China conflict, BRICS has also paved the way for smoother economic relations between the two countries. Trade between India and China had been severely impacted by the border tensions, with both countries imposing restrictions on each other’s goods and services. The de-escalation of the conflict will likely lead to a resumption of normal trade relations, benefiting both economies.

The BRICS nations have long advocated for a more equitable global economic system, one that is less dominated by Western institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. By leveraging their economic interdependence, the BRICS nations were able to create an environment conducive to conflict resolution, further enhancing the bloc’s credibility as an alternative to Western-led economic systems.

Strategic Realignments: Russia, India, and China

For Russia, the success of the BRICS 2024 summit allows it to reposition itself as a central figure in global diplomacy, despite its ongoing conflict with Ukraine and isolation from the West. Putin’s ability to mediate between India and China reinforces Russia’s role as a key player in Asia and demonstrates that Russia is not as isolated as many Western analysts had predicted. It also strengthens Russia’s ties with both India and China, two countries that will be crucial to its future economic and geopolitical strategy.

For India, the resolution of the border conflict is a welcome relief, allowing it to focus more on its domestic agenda and its growing role in global governance. Prime Minister Narendra Modi can now point to a successful de-escalation of tensions with China as evidence of his government’s commitment to securing India’s borders and maintaining peace in the region. Moreover, India’s continued engagement with BRICS allows it to balance its relationships with both the West and non-Western powers, ensuring that it maintains strategic autonomy in its foreign policy.

For China, the agreement allows it to de-escalate tensions with one of its key regional rivals, freeing it to focus on other strategic priorities, such as its territorial claims in the South China Sea and its long-term goal of reunifying Taiwan with the mainland. The resolution of the India-China conflict through BRICS also aligns with China’s broader foreign policy objective of promoting multilateral diplomacy as an alternative to Western-led conflict resolution mechanisms.

Conclusion: A Diplomatic Turning Point for the Global South

The successful resolution of the India-China conflict represents a diplomatic turning point not just for Russia, India, and China, but for the entire Global South. In a world that is increasingly characterized by great power rivalry, the BRICS bloc has emerged as a credible alternative to Western-led institutions, capable of resolving conflicts and promoting peace through multilateral diplomacy.

For Vladimir Putin, the summit is a personal and political triumph, reaffirming his role as a master diplomat capable of navigating complex geopolitical landscapes. Despite the challenges posed by Western sanctions, Putin demonstrated that Russia remains an indispensable player in global affairs, particularly within the context of BRICS. The successful mediation of the India-China conflict is a testament to Putin’s diplomatic skill and Russia’s enduring influence in global geopolitics.

Looking ahead, the success of BRICS 2024 could set the stage for further conflict resolution efforts within the bloc, particularly as it continues to expand its membership. With new members like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iran joining the fold, BRICS is poised to play an even greater role in shaping the future of global governance. As the world becomes more multipolar, BRICS will continue to serve as a platform for emerging powers to assert their interests and challenge the dominance of Western institutions.

In conclusion, Putin’s diplomatic masterstroke at BRICS 2024 has not only resolved one of Asia’s most dangerous conflicts but also demonstrated the power of multilateral diplomacy in a rapidly changing global order. The India-China agreement, brokered under Russia’s leadership, marks a new chapter for BRICS and solidifies its place as a key player in global geopolitics. For Putin, it is a legacy-defining achievement that will shape Russia’s role in the world for years to come.