“Same As Ever” – a book review

During the Easter break, I finished reading a fascinating book about how we think about the future that really relates to what we do as Competitive Intelligence (CI) professionals.

“Change captures our attention because it’s surprising and exciting. But the behaviors that never change are history’s most powerful lessons, because they preview what to expect in the future.”

In a world obsessed with the new and the next big thing, I think Morgan Housel's latest book "Same as Ever" offers a refreshing perspective.? The book argues that beneath the surface of change, fundamental human behaviors remain remarkably constant. Already on the first page, there is a great example of what was the number one candy bar in 1962 and still is today; Snickers.. Through 23 short chapters, Housel explores these lasting patterns, drawing on history, psychology, risk and finance.

“We are very good at predicting the future, except for the surprises– which tend to be all that matter. The biggest risk is always what no one sees coming, because if no one sees it coming, no ones prepared for it; and if no one′s prepared for it, the damage will be amplified when it arrives.”

The book challenges CI professionals specifically. We often chase the "next big thing," but Housel suggests focusing on the unchanging aspects of human nature, such as our desire for certainty, our susceptibility to fear and greed, and the way our past experiences shape our present decisions.

"Same as Ever" equips you to make better choices by understanding these unchanging forces.? You'll learn why major historical events often hinge on random chance, why economic bubbles inevitably burst, and how to manage risk by recognizing the limitations of your knowledge. By understanding this, we can become more strategic thinkers and focus our efforts on being prepared for any scenarios.

“Invest in preparedness, not in prediction”. - Nassim Taleb

I highly recommend it, not just for CI professionals, but for anyone trying to navigate a world of constant change. By focusing on the things that never change, you can make sounder financial decisions and gain a deeper understanding of the world around you.

The final chapter includes a series of questions of which the one that stuck with me most was: “What are we ignoring today that will seem shockingly obvious in the future?”