The Sahel Tragedy: The Tripartite Nexus of Climate Change, Conflict, and Governance

At the intersection of conflict, climate change, and governance, the Sahel area of West Africa is experiencing a mounting catastrophe. This region, which spans the nations of Senegal, Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Chad, is home to more than 200 million people, many of whom are already battling poverty, food insecurity, and inadequate access to essential services. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), temperatures in the Sahel have risen by an average of 0.7 degrees Celsius during the past century, with an increase of 1.5 to 3.0 degrees Celsius anticipated by the end of the 21st century.

This rise in temperature makes it more difficult for farmers and herders to cultivate crops and rear cattle, so adding to the region's food insecurity and poverty. According to the World Food Programme (WFP), the Sahel area is one of the driest in the world, with an average annual precipitation of less than 500 millimetres. According to the IPCC, climate change is causing an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events such as droughts and flash floods in the Sahel. These catastrophic occurrences have a noteworthy influence on agriculture and cattle output, as well as the region's infrastructure and communities.

The IPCC predicts that global sea levels will rise by 0.5 to 1 metre by the end of the 21st century, which could have substantial consequences for coastal areas in the Sahel, such as Senegal and Mauritania. This rise in sea level might result in the loss of important agricultural land and fishing grounds, the displacement of populations, and an increase in their susceptibility to coastal erosion and storm surges. However, the situation is aggravated by the interaction of war, climate change, and governance issues, which are producing a complex and dangerous scenario with far-reaching effects for the area and beyond.

Armed organisations and criminal networks exploiting the security void left by poor administration and a dearth of basic amenities are a key source of instability in the Sahel. In addition to competing for resources such as land and water, ethnic conflicts and religious differences frequently drive the conflict. According to the United Nations, there were over one thousand documented deaths in the Sahel as a result of fighting in 2020, and the situation has only worsened in recent months, with millions of people affected by rising violence and displacement.

At the same time, the Sahel area faces substantial climate change-related issues. The region is currently among the world's driest, and climate projections show that temperatures will continue to climb, while precipitation will become more sporadic and unpredictable. This exacerbates current food and water security issues and makes it more difficult for farmers and herders to earn a livelihood. According to the World Food Programme, over 20 million people in the Sahel are food insecure, and this figure is anticipated to increase as the effects of climate change intensify.

Governance issues in the region exacerbate the difficulties created by armed conflict and climate change. The Sahel is home to some of the poorest nations in the world, with weak and ineffective governance systems that are unable to deliver basic services to their citizens or handle the conflicting demands of numerous stakeholders. This has produced a scenario in which many people are disenfranchised from the democratic process and criminal networks and armed organisations are able to exploit the security void to seize control of critical resources and places.

To address the complex and interconnected issues faced by war, climate change, and governance in the Sahel, interventions are required. However, the design and implementation of these interventions must consider the regional environment and the needs of its inhabitants.

Governance is one of the most critical areas in which actions are required. This involves enhancing the ability of national and local governments to deliver essential services like as healthcare, education, and access to water and food. This may be accomplished through efforts that strengthen the capacity of government institutions, offer technical help and training, and support changes that create more inclusive and effective governance systems.

Another important area of involvement is conflict resolution and peacebuilding. This might include programmes that encourage communication and reconciliation between diverse communities, assist the disarmament and reintegration of armed organisations, and strive to address the root causes of conflict, such as resource competition and ethnic conflicts.

In addition to these measures, climate change-related concerns must also be addressed. This can include initiatives that support the development of more resilient agricultural and pastoral systems, promote the use of renewable energy and energy-efficient technologies, and conserve natural resources, such as forests and wetlands, which play a significant role in regulating the regional climate.

In the end, the most effective initiatives in the Sahel will be those that take a comprehensive and integrated approach to the difficulties posed by war, climate change, and governance. This will require cooperation between governments, civil society groups, the corporate sector, and international organisations, in addition to a willingness to invest in the region's long-term development.

The Great Green Wall effort, which aims to prevent desertification and enhance food security in the Sahel by planting a 15-kilometer-wide strip of trees and plants from Dakar in Senegal to Djibouti in the east, is a potential example of such an integrated strategy. The effort, which is being carried out by the African Union and its partners, aims not only to improve the environment, and mitigate the effects of climate change, but also to advance economic growth, social inclusion, and peacebuilding in the area.

The Sahel Alliance, a cooperation between the European Union, the African Union, and the United Nations, intends to help the development of the Sahel area by tackling the underlying causes of poverty, insecurity, and war. The Alliance collaborates with local partners to promote economic growth and sustainable agriculture in the region, as well as to assist governance and peacebuilding projects.

The intersection of violence, climate change, and governance in the Sahel area of West Africa is complex and dynamic, requiring a coordinated and integrated response. By investing in governance and peacebuilding initiatives, promoting sustainable agriculture and environmental protection, and supporting the development of inclusive and effective governance systems, we can mitigate the effects of conflict and climate change and build a more stable and resilient future for the Sahel Region's inhabitants.