Is it safe?
In the film Marathon Man, there's a particularly harrowing scene, involving Dr Szell (Laurence Olivier) interrogating 'Babe' Levy (Dustin Hoffman). Szell, a former Nazi dentist, repeatedly asks "Is it safe?", while drilling into Babe's teeth.
In 2020, we might ask ourselves the same question, in relation to the planned re-opening of schools: is it safe? Governments on both sides of the Atlantic seem keen to down-play the risks and reassure us. I find myself rather skeptical.
There seem to be several critical questions:
- Do children spread the virus between themselves?
- Can children spread the virus to adults, e.g. family members?
- If a child becomes infected with Covid-19, are they likely to suffer long-term negative health effects?
The latest scientific evidence suggests that the answer to each of these questions is a pretty resounding YES, which ought to make us extremely nervous.
The government WANTS it to be OK. They WANT to kick-start the economy. They WANT kids to be back in school, so that parents can return to work. This mind-set appears to have blinded them to the risks.
We've already seen what happens when people race ahead of a sensible re-opening strategy; the Covid-19 spikes in Leicester and Greater Manchester are a perfect illustration of what can happen, when desire trumps rational thought.
If we see a similar situation with the re-opening of schools, we may find ourselves in a nightmare scenario, where schools start back in September, only to have to close again within a week or two. Instead of preparing for the continuation of distance learning, supplemented by *some* face-to-face activity, the schools will have spent all their time and effort preparing for a scenario that isn't going to exist, i.e. a full-blown return to the way things were in January.
Surely it would be more sensible to take a conservative approach to the science. This would probably include the following elements:
- Do as much as possible outside, including any eating or drinking
- Mandate mask-wearing for any indoor activity, for both teachers and pupils
- Continue teaching online for a substantial proportion of the school day
The UK government does not show much sign of wanting to be led by the science; perhaps this is because of Michael Gove's well-publicised distrust of "experts". Yet the re-opening of schools, if done carelessly, has the potential to bring down the current government. Time will tell.....
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4 年I know several parents who have no intention of putting their families at risk. What are the consequences going to be? Is there any justification for fining, prosecuting and potentially imprisoning parents for refusing to compromise the health of their families?