Is it safe to change jobs in 2022?

The job market is holding strong despite ongoing concerns of a recession.

There were 11.3 million job openings in May, or roughly two jobs for every unemployed worker, according to the latest?Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey . Some 6.5 million people were hired into new jobs, and 4.3 million people quit for a new one. May marked six straight months of more than 11 million job openings, and 12 straight months of more than 4 million people voluntarily leaving their job.

The strong labor market stands in stark contrast against growing recession fears —?70% of Americans ?believe an economic downturn is on its way, driven by concerns over?high inflation , rising housing prices and a volatile stock market, according to one MagnifyMoney survey.

So is it a good time or a bad time to change jobs? Here’s what economists say.

It’s still a job-seeker’s market and employers have an “insatiable demand to hire,” says Andrew Flowers, a labor economist at Appcast. As of June, he says Appcast, which helps businesses with recruiting efforts, hasn’t seen a slowdown in employers’ intent to hire through the end of the year.

Current job postings are 61% higher than they were pre-Covid, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

Flowers expects jobs in leisure and hospitality to remain strong as people continue to travel, go to events, dine at restaurants and shop, even as inflation has ratcheted up in recent months.

But some jobs may be more sensitive to the rising interest rate, including in construction and manufacturing, which could see a drop-off in openings.

As for people who are seeing opportunities in their field right now, Flowers says to “strike while the iron is hot.”

Still, others warn that growing uncertainty is a reminder to be “cautious” about changing jobs, and to make sure you have a new one lined up before you quit.

″It doesn’t mean workers can no longer look for better opportunities, but I would hesitate to leave a job if I had no immediate prospects,” says Stephanie Aaronson, vice president and director of the Economic Studies program at the Brookings Institution.

The best thing you can do, she says, is to do some “on-the-job” searching to “make the exchange without a spell of unemployment. Your odds of finding a new job are still quite high, and there’s still a potential payoff to doing that.”

In the first quarter of 2022, job-switchers saw their pay grow by?8.7% year-over-year , while wages for job-holders went up by 6%, according to ADP data.

If hiring cools, it won’t be “enough to show up and be available to work,” she says. “Firms are going to be hiring fewer people, so there’s going to be more competition, and you’ll have to make yourself a more attractive candidate.”

References: CNBC, Forbes