Sadiq 3.0: What to expect from a third term

If the polls are to be believed, Labour’s Sadiq Khan will be elected to serve an unprecedented third term as London’s Mayor on 2 May. Connect’s Senior Counsel and former City Hall adviser, David Halliwell , ponders the political priorities and dynamics at play should Londoners place their trust in Sadiq again.

A third term Sadiq administration will seek to build on his well-established priorities and make real progress on delivering what matters for Londoners. Priorities including a further massive investment in a new generation of genuinely affordable housing, alongside commitments to abolish rough sleeping and improve conditions for renters in the capital. Social interventions like the extension of the free school meals pledge and funding more youth clubs in the boroughs. Popular transport policies such as once again freezing fares on TfL services to help with cost of living struggles. Growing London’s economy, ensuring the city is still a global powerhouse and upskilling Londoners to take the jobs of the future. And the vital importance of keeping London safe and tackling violence, especially against women and girls.

There will be few surprises. Sadiq is standing on his record and getting on with the job but also showing real ambition to make a fairer, greener, more prosperous city for all Londoners. Sadiq has a real impatience to go further and faster on the policies that matter to him. Take the example of tackling air quality and climate change, London is genuinely world leading in the measures it has taken to give Londoners clean air. ULEZ has been controversial but the Mayor has driven the policy forward.

More intriguing perhaps will be how Sadiq would work with a Labour government. Remember that Sadiq has had to contend with five adversarial Prime Ministers and even more Ministers responsible for key policy areas throughout his tenure as Mayor so far. Sadiq has been a vocal opponent against successive administrations on the impacts of Brexit, a fair transport settlement after the pandemic and tackling the worst impacts of government policy on the poorest Londoners. By the same token, the Conservatives have found a convenient target and villain of the piece at City Hall to deflect from their own woes, especially from the right of the party. These attacks seem to play better outside London though and Sadiq remains popular in the capital. But how will a Starmer premiership change the devolution dynamic in London and beyond.

The Shadow Chancellor has been clear that there will be few giveaways if Labour takes power. But will a supportive Ministerial team in DfT put the building blocks in place for the long awaited Bakerloo Line extension and other transport infrastructure that unlocks new affordable housing, jobs and ‘good growth’ regeneration for left behind parts of the capital? Will a Labour Treasury, with London’s former Deputy Mayor for Housing James Murray in as Financial Secretary, be more open to developing fiscal devolution policies that help pay for Londoners’ priorities and give London financial freedoms? How far does a Labour Education Team deliver the largescale further devolution of education, skills and employment policies to enhance the successes already achieved with adult education devolution? ?Does a Labour Housing Secretary provide a truly effective funding package to build the vast amount of social and affordable housing needed?

The truth is, the answers might be not be wholly positive straight away given the state of the economy but at least the door will be open to the Mayor, with a Government of his own party helping to shift the dial on a new settlement for a Labour London. A new Devolution Act early in the first term should refresh the powers and responsibilities of the Mayor and Mayor’s across the country. A government seeing the Mayoralty of London and the other metro mayors as partners not adversaries will breathe new life into devolution.

Sadiq’s policies over the last two terms have helped shape the party’s national manifesto in many ways and a City Hall influence is noticeable. Labour’s leadership has sensibly worked with its regional mayors and local authority leaders to test what works and, crucially what doesn’t, where Labour is in charge.

Of course, there will be bumps in the road. Tensions with the Labour leadership over ULEZ after the Uxbridge by-election shows that. The path to great Labour relations rarely runs smooth and devolution is much more appealing in opposition without a decent majority behind you. What happens when the Mayor meets resistance? The door being open and a constructive honest relationship between Ministers and Mayor should see public disagreements at a minimum but juggling the need for a thriving London and the levelling up needs of the rest of the country could be tricky. Labour will need to use every lever available to deliver economic growth and London will be critical to this mission. It is not a zero sum game. Labour has the chance to unify the country and make it globally competitive with a strong London working together with the UKs empowered great cities, towns and regions under Labour administrations.

In short, there will be no one happier than Sadiq if the honourable member for London’s Holborn and St Pancras makes the short move down the road to Downing Street. Their successes or failures might be intertwined in the Mayor’s third term and the shifting political dynamics will surely shape how London and the country is governed.

For relations between government and London’s Mayor, things can only get better.