Russo-Ukrainian war operations as of 29th of May 2022

Disclaimer

All information in the text was taken from public sources. I have no access to the direct military information, thus any claims below must be taken with care. However, as usual, I try to only publish the proved statements.

Primer

The most important events over the past week were the ongoing offensive of the russian terrorist in Luhansk Oblast, the evacuation of all Ukrainian defenders of Azovstal (Mariupol), and the USA decision to supply MLRS to Ukraine.

From the strategic perspective we see the culmination of the current trench war phase featuring the permanent russian terrorists attempts to breakthrough in the battle for Donbass. Within the next month russian terrorists are expected to exhaust the remaining reserves and proceed to the defensive operation with the aim to hold currently occupied territories. In contrast, the Ukrainian Army is expected to restore limited counter-attacks on some directions with the potential for the massive counter-offensive closer to the end of June or beginning of July.

Also, see the previous report from 15th of May 2022.

South Front

Only a few military actions took place on the wide south front between the Snake Island and the city of Donetsk since the last report. The russian navy seems to give up effort to turn the Snake Island into its military base after several major defeats from the Ukrainian missile and airforce strikes. The russian terrorist artillery continued to shell the city of Kryvyi Rih and its suburbs as well as several towns in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Still there were two quite important events shaping the future of the conflict as described in the below two sections.

Situation in Mariupol

After many weeks of pressure onto the russian terrorist regime from both civilized world and international organizations; russian army agreed to warrant life to the defenders of Mariupol in case of surrender. There are rumors that war criminal Putin personally controls this situation in exchange of some warranties to his own life from the world powers. One way or another, a week ago the Mariupol garrison fortified in Azovsteel megafactory received an order to save life of its personnel; that in less diplomatic language means surrender with warranties of life.

After the last Ukrainian heroes left Mariupol in the russian army convoys, this ends the heroic defence under the siege of Mariupol which lasted for 86 days between 24th of February and 20th of May 2022. Although this clearly means the russian victory in the battle for Mariupol, the Ukrainian Army heroes came undefeated from this battle: they stayed strong until the last day and were ready to continue the battle. It's the strategic situation which changed, not the battle conditions: as the russian terrorists left Mariupol 2 weeks ago giving up their siege attempts, the Ukrainian garrison could no longer perform its task which was to engage as many russian terrorists in battle as possible. Thus, their task was done and the surrender under warranty of life was the best outcome realistically possible.

Ukrainian soldiers were moved to the hospital of Novoazovsk and the prison near Volnovakha. Possibly, they might be subject to the mutual exchange of prisoners of war. Lets hope russians will stay true to their warranties and save life of the Heroes.

Situation near Kherson

As the majority of russian troops are engaged in the Battle for Donbass, their lines on other directions get thin over time. This allowed the Ukrainian Army to attempt several limited counter-attacks against their positions on the south front.

The most prominent attack happened north-east of Kherson with potential to grow into the counter-offensive similar to that north of Kharkiv two weeks ago. Using ponton bridges the Ukrainian Army forces crossed the Inhulets river between Snihurivka and Velyka Oleksandrivka a few days ago, and under the artillery support are now pushing russian forces to the east. This attack allows to open a new front against the russian groups north of Kherson, aiming to cut the supply lines of the large russian contingent which creates a constant threat of artillery shelling to the city of Kryvyi Rih.

Most probably this is the limited counter-attack to take control of an important road in the region; though it might grow into the encirclement of the russian troops to the north if it is accompanied by the simultaneous strike of the Ukrainian Army residing further north near the town of Apostolove.

As usual there were several more episodes of destroying russian weaponry in the famous village of Chornobayivka (by the Ukrainian artillery strikes). Nevertheless, russians continue to build up in this area with unreasonable dreams to restore the offensive towards the cities of Mykolayiv and Odesa.

Unfortunately, due to the full ignorance of russian occupants to nature there are ongoing ecological crises in the Kherson Oblast:

• Due to the misuse of Kakhovka dam there started the flooding of lands down the Dnipro river; risking the ecological and humanitarian catastrophy for the downstream inhabinants (including residents of Kherson).
• The russian terrorists don't allow locals of the Kinburn peninsula to fight the forest fires endangering both local population and indegenous flora and fauna (including several endangered species and unique natural habitats).

Situation near Zaporizhzhia

The Ukrainian guerillas and special operation forces activated near the cities of Melitopol and Berdiansk, increasing the rate of nightly attacks onto the russian supply lines. Also, despite the constant heavy artillery and mortar shelling of the russian terrorists, the Ukrainian Army was able to improve its tactical positions and even liberate a couple of small villages in the region. There are rumors about the limited counter-attack starting these days; although the details are not yet clear.

East Front

On the east front the primary battles continue over the Lysychansk - Siverodonetsk aglomeration, the towns of Lyman and Popasna, and north-east of city of Kharkiv:

• The russian terrorist army continue to push hard on the a small part Luhansk Oblast territory which still remains under the Ukrainian control. They have parted with their over-jealous plan to encircle the entire Ukrainian Army contingent in the Donbass region and now focus on smaller offensives on the easternmost piece of the frontline.
• Still, the major offensives near the important towns of Lyman and Popasna allowed russian terrorists to seize significant territories and threaten the Ukrainian Army supply lines towards Lysychansk - Siverodonetsk aglomeration.
• Meanwhile, the Ukrainian Army continues the counter-offensive east and north of the Kharkiv city, and successfully crossed the Siverskyi Donets river towards the important town of Vovchansk, threatening the russian military supply lines.

As one can see, it becomes one more time clear why experts constantly call this war "the war of artillery and supply routes". Both armies often target the enemy supply routes instead of positions, and massively use artillery to establish the zones of control over important roads.

Situation near Donetsk

The russian terrorist army continues their offensives towards the towns of Avdiyivka and New York between the cities of Donetsk and Horlivka. However, the Ukrainian defenses in this region (built over the past 8 years) stay firm; so much that flanking attacks of the russian army north of Avdiyivka did not allow them to take control over any important village. Still, they were able to move closer to New York threatening to start the street fighting inside the town.

Situation near Popasna

After the breakthrough near the important town of Popasna two weeks ago russian terrorist army got the moment and was able to materialize it into the significant territory gains over the past two weeks. Thus, while the Ukrainian Army still holds control over the situation, it became much harder to defend now.

South of Popasna the Ukrainian Army retreated from the towns of Svitlodarsk and Myronivskyi as well as the village of Troyitske; leaving a huge chunk of land to capture by the Vagner mercenaries of the russian army without fight. This was a necessary move: although this was an important protrusion allowing to start an offensive towards the city of Debaltseve, from defensive perspective it was less important; moreover, residing behind the Siverskyi Donets river from the main Ukrainian Army forces it was hard to defend. Thus, the Ukrainian General Staff took a decision to use the contingent more efficiently on other directions.

East and north of Popasna russian avangard troops were able to temporary seize control over the main supply route of the Ukrainian Army between Bahmut and Lysychansk. Although the Ukrainian Army returned control of the road, now russian control a huge chunk of territory in this area, creating several threats due to the larger area available to maneuver close to the backbone supply routes of the Ukrainian Army troops:

• artillery zone of control over the road Bahmut - Lysychansk;
• threat to attack the city of Bahmut itself;
• threat to attack the Ukrainian contingent around the town of Zolote east of Popasna, further threating to attack the city of Lysychansk.

In combination, these threats make defending the area quite challenging. So, we might witness the complex battle in this area during the coming weeks where both armies will engage in the smart maneuvering and severe fighting. Needless to say, in this area russian general staff have sent their most elite army troops, fully understaning the importance of this region for the offensive operation. However, many experts have noticed that over the last week the intensity of the russian attacks on this direction have stalled unveiling the problem with reserves in the russian army. Thus, there are all chances that instead of the intensifying warfare we might see quite the opposite in the coming days - stalling of the offensive similar to the situation with the Izium breakthrough a few weeks ago.

Situation near Lysychansk and Siverodonetsk

The russian terrorist army did not give up its attempts to take the important city of Siverodonetsk via the direct attacks. Over the past two weeks they attacked the city and its suburbs using all 4 available inroads from the north, east, and south-east. They were able to capture one village, move closer to the city, and take a bigger part of Rubizhne (a town north of Siverodonetsk withstanding the siege and street fighting already for 3 months); they were even able to capture a hotel building on the outskirts of Siverodonetsk. Yet still, the Ukrainian defenders of the city stand firm, destroying russian weaponry, armor, and personnel in huge quantities. It was reported that during the last month the daily loss of russian terrorist lives on this direction alone was no less than 50 persons every day, not counting the injured.

Situation near Lyman

Quite expectedly, after the fall of the village of Yampil to the south and the total destruction of the (road and railroad) bridge over the Siverskyi Donets river to the west 3 weeks ago; it was extemely hard to defend the important town of Lyman attacked by the russian troops invading from the east and north directions. Thus, after 5 weeks of the siege, the town have almost fall to the russians. There is still the street fighting ongoing, but the Ukrainian Army troops from Lyman and several villages to the south of it are now retreating north-west towards the town of Sviatohirsk. Still, the Ukrainian Army contingent in Sviatohirsk (and a few villages to the north) continue the defense as they are tactically in a much better situation due to the close proximity of two intact bridges over the Siverskyi Donets near it.

Although russian terrorist have shown their incompetence in using ponton bridges; after the fall of Lyman they are now able to threat constant artillery shelling of the city of Slovyansk and its suburbs (with a total population over 200'000 residents). The Ukrainian Army have already started the evacuation campaign of civilians from the area. A timely delivery of long-range MLRS from the allies could prevent the destruction of this beautiful city by the russian terrorists from afar.

Situation near Izium

The russian offensive from Izuim in the west and south directions have stalled completely. Although a large contingent of the russian terrorists in the area played a huge role in the battle for Lyman; they were not able to gain any of their goals on other directions. Contrary, it looks like the Ukrainian Army have started to restore control over the territory south of Izium: over the past month a couple of non-important villages were liberated.

Situation near Kharkiv

The Ukrainian Army continues the major counter-offensive north and east of Kharkiv. On the north several villages were liberated moving the front line further away from the large city. At the moment, the intensity of russian terrorist artillery strikes against the civilian building in city have decrease dramatically; moreover, now they only reach as far as the northernmost districts of the city. All russian attempts to enforce their contingent in the area proved useless and the Ukrainian Army continues to slowly yet gradually move north.

There were several occasions of crossing the border by the Ukrainian Army while chasing the retreating russian terrorists, but they were not intentional and were only restricted to uninhabited borderland territories. The main reason of these moves is that there are physically no border marks between Ukraine and Russia in the area due to the 30 year long sabotage of the russians to demarcate the border.

East of Kharkiv the Ukrainian Army have performed a successful crossing of the Siverskyi Donets river using ponton bridges between towns of Staryi Saltiv and Pechenihy a week ago (all road bridges in the area are already destroyed). Right now there is the fierce fighting ongoing on the left bank of the river as the russians try to not allow the Ukrainian Army to build up enough armor to start the offensive towards the town of Vovchansk. If the Ukrainian Army succeeds in this offensive - it will effectively cut the major supply route of the russian army contingent in Izium.

International Front

The USA land-lease program to Ukraine have started to play out quite well as the first M777 howitzers brigade proved efficient against the russian occupants. Also, there was an evidence of the France made Caesar self-propelled howitzers being used by the Ukrainian Army. Some experts also evidenced that Ukraine have received a few dozens of SU-35 and MiG-29 aircraft from the western allies in disassembled way (which were already re-assembled and used in missions). And the final cut to all this is the USA decision to supply the undisclosed amount of the highly needed M270 multiple launch rocket systems to Ukraine.

On the diplomatic front the situation is not as well. First, the russians have started a massive covert operations war against the european allies of Ukraine; this already resulted into the stop of all almost military supplies from Germany, the sabotage of such supplies from other countries, and the unreasonable talks of German, French and Italian leaders asking Ukraine to give up some more land to appease the war criminal Putin. Second, the EU again proved to be incapable to take important decisions quickly enough: the oil embargo against Russia loses track and risks to be stuck in the bureaucracy cabinets of EU for long. This is not at all surprizing as the oil embargo against Russia is the thing that alone is capable to stop the war in Ukraine within months; thus, russian agents fight against it using any means.

Future Predictions

As for the future, some experts state that the culmination point in the battle for Donbass is right now; and a lot of change is expected based on its outcome in the coming weeks. However, unlike so much wanted by the civilized world and the Ukrainians, the war is still far from its finish. In the coming weeks I expect the decrease in the intensity of the fighting as the russian terrorists run out of reserves and the Ukrainian Army is not yet ready for a massive counter-offensive. Thus, the situation will gradually stall on all fronts before the character of this war changes dramatically closer to July. By then the Ukrainian Army might attempt several limited counter-offensives on some directions, while russian terrorists will be only capable to defend on the temporary occupied territories of Ukraine.

• In the Black Sea the russian military commandment might attempt again to build a capable military base on the Snake Island. However, as the military capability of the Ukrainian Navy in the Black Sea constantly grows and the russian Black Sea fleet shrinks these plans have zero chance for success.
• On the south front, the situation is expected to be tense but without huge offenses from any side (previous prediction remains). The destruction of russian heavy armor near Chornobayivka will continue. The Ukrainian Army might attempt to push russians away from Kryvyi Rih towards the line Mylove-Snihurivka, and even encircle the russian troops to the north of this line. Still, a more likely prediction is that Ukrainian will make some local gains in order to improve their tactical position. Meanwhile, the russian terrorist army will continue attempts to build up a large military contingent in the Kherson - Beryslav place of arms with the goal to attack the city of Mykolayiv.
• The Ukrainian plan for the south-east front is quite obvious (as I described a month ago): liberate Enerhodar, then liberate Tokmak and Polohy, possibly also Melitopol, and finally liberate Mariupol and Henichesk. However, due to the much higher strategic importance of the battle for Donbass, there is almost no chance that it would be attempted in the coming weeks.
• No major offensives are expected between Vuhledar and Horlivka. Both sides have built massive strongholds on this frontline during the last 8 years. So that nobody is capable for successful offensives across this line without huge losses. Artillery warfare and local tactical battles are still expected.
• A shaky situation remains between Horlivka and Izium. Russians will attempt to evolve their offensive operation from Popasna and Lyman threatening to encircle the Ukrainian military contingent in Lysychansk - Siverodonetsk aglomeration. Also, they will continue direct attacks onto Siverodonetsk, Slovyansk, and Barvinkove. The situation on this part of the frontline can rapidly change in any direction. Still, I will try to make a (careful and uncertain) prediction that closer to the end of June the intensity of russian attacks in this region will gradually decrease due to the exhausted reserves. That will lead to the stalemate on this part of the frontline allowing the Ukrainian Army to prepare the counter-offensive in the area somewhere in July-August.
• The Ukrainian Army will continue to repell russian terrorists from Kharkiv, potentially clearing the entire border north of the city. After that, the Ukrainian Army will start a buildup for the offensive onto the supply lines of huge russian military contingent in Izium, which may happen at any time soon now. The Ukrainian Army have already selected the liberation of Vovchansk as the first goal, but that does not prevent it from simultaneously holding limited counter-offensives towards Balakliya, Kupyansk or Izium.
• Another good option would be to cross the russian border and take control over the important town Shebekino via a surprise attack. The international community is now prepared for such turnaround, and the Ukrainian Army is already capable of successfully performing such limited local offensives. Controlling Vovchansk (in Ukraine) and Shebekino (in russia) would allow to fortify this whole region making its defence easier and reliably disrupting the russian military supplies to Izium. The only question which remains open is if the Ukrainian government ready to take the political decision to allow attacking russian borderlands in order to liberate the entire territory of Ukraine.
• Russian airforce will continue mass missile attacks deep into the Ukrainian territory. Thus, it is important to receive the never ending anti-air and anti-missile supplies from the western allies. There are some signs that russian missile stockpile is deplating, so possibly the intensity of missile strikes far from the frontline will gradually decrease during the summer months.
• On the diplomatic front, the increase in heavy armor supplies to Ukraine are expected. Potentially, Ukrainian allies may impose the next round of economic sanctions against russia, but more probably they will happen in June.
• As the russian offensive gets stalled and the Ukrainian counter-offensive becomes imminent, russian propaganda speakers might resume their talks about the nuclear war threat again. Although, by now the world should be ready for these nonsense talks and will most probably ignore them.
• More guerilla actions of russian citizens against russian military will happen across the russian territory (already start happening). They have no chance to lead to any shift in the russian nazi regime policy making, but will evolve over time into more and more severe actions.
• There is a small chance that Vladimir Putin might not survive after his recent surgery, or that he will be disabled from power by his court. However, in no way that could result into the end of the Russo-Ukrainian war: it is not war criminal Putin who started this war - it is the russian nazi regime that started it. Even worse, this war was popularized by the russian propaganda for 20 years, and was supported by the majority of russian population. So it will continue until the disgraceful defeat of Russia in this war. The only question that remains open is this: will it end in Ukraine, or will it end deep within Russia? The world powers must convince the russian elites to capitulate early in order to save millions of lives and prevent even harder damage to the world.

In general, the hard times for Ukraine are far from being over, especially on the east and south-east fronts (in particular, the most dire situation is on the huge area between Bahmut and Siverodonetsk). However, from the military perspective the situation seems to become more favorable to Ukraine, despite the ongoing humanitarian crisis.

Trust the Ukrainian Army! Slava Ukraini!