Russia’s War on Ukraine: Escalation? But How?
Dr. Heiner Neuling
Dr.rer.nat., Chief Science Officer @ Neuraimplant | Computer-brain-interfaces
Putin is between a rock and a hard place, his Army is losing, he has to up the ante and make the West stop and think before he loses Crimea…
Between a rock and a hard place, holed up in his Moscow bunker, President Vladimir Putin surely has three immediate priorities (I’m ignoring the ruble crash as just being ‘noise’ to him) :
His personal safety (family optional)
Preservation of his power base
Getting out of the his mess in Ukraine
The first and second priorities are handled by his close-in security team and the?Rosgvardiya?in the wider sense. The FSB will also be involved, although their enthusiasm may be in some doubt — the mystery of Prigozhin’s June 24 March on Moscow is still a puzzle to outsiders.
Specifically now, I’m going to look at his third priority. Ukraine, of which Crimea is his crown jewel.
I’m only an amateur observer but from all the reading and thread following I’ve been doing over the last eighteen months, I haven’t seen any discussion about what I’ll conclude here. That’s because it’s not mainstream thinking, I guess.
Crimea
Since day three of Russia’s attempted invasion of Ukraine there has been plenty of talk about an ‘off ramp’ for Putin, but I’m ignoring that for the purposes of this discussion. To me, Crimea is Putin’s ultimate red line.
For him to keep control of Crimea I believe that he will do anything except perhaps initiate nuclear war — he cannot do that because Xi Jinping told him not to go nuclear.
If he loses Crimea, he is dead.
And there’s no doubt that Ukrainian forces are making progress towards recovering their sovereignty of Crimea.
It’s apparent that Putin cannot bring Ukraine to the negotiating table and keep Crimea. Certainly there has been discreet Western pressure on Ukraine to settle and give up the peninsula. But that has changed as Ukraine’s war successes have ramped up.
Ukrainian pilots are well into training to fly F16s and the US has agreed that Denmark and the Netherlands can supply F16s to Ukraine. Pilot trainign has started.
US approves sending F-16s to Ukraine from Denmark and Netherlands
The United States has approved sending F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine from Denmark and the Netherlands to defend against…
WASHINGTON, Aug 17 (Reuters) — The United States has approved sending F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine from Denmark and the Netherlands to defend against Russian invaders as soon as pilot training is completed, a U.S. official said on Thursday.
Ukraine has actively sought the U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets to help it counter Russian air superiority.
Washington gave Denmark and the Netherlands official assurances that the United States will expedite approval of transfer requests for F-16s to go to Ukraine when the pilots are trained, the official said. —?Reuters
This is not a game changer, but will certainly accelerate progress and neutralise the problem of the Russian KA-52 Alligators on the Southern Front.
Ukraine has already far exceeded Western expectations, fighting a combined arms op without air superiority but with a huge measure of innovation and commitment to break through Russian lines in the Kherson region and threaten the amputation of Crimea from the Russian land corridor.
Ukraine’s innovative warfare skills have Russia reeling — and Putin must be worried. For example:
The deployment of aerial drones to hit Moscow and airbases deep in Russian territory.
The use of thermal imaging to map minefields and breakthrough Russian main defence lines.
The use of naval surface drones to keep the Russian navy at bay and damage military shipping in the Black Sea.
The successful conversion of the ancient SA200 Gammon AA missiles into effective ground-to-ground ballistic missiles.
Clearly Russia is on the back foot, but still committing war crimes on a vast scale. He cannot frighten Ukraine into submission. Whatever he does, they push back harder.
So, given that Putin is in danger of losing Crimea perhaps even before the year’s end, what are his options?
Putin’s options
When compiling a list of options, number one is always ‘do nothing’. Putin certainly has that option. But if he ‘does nothing’ then events will certainly overtake him. So, other than that first option, what can he do to halt or reverse the negative progress of his illegal war?
Option: Negotiation
Ukraine will not come to the negotiating table any time soon. The only item left on Ukraine’s shopping list is US ATACMs missiles. German Taurus cruise missiles would be great too, but ATACMs are the key. Now, it’s only a matter of time — and that’s one commodity that Putin is short of.
Ukraine feels that the momentum is with them despite rumours that Washington wants negotiations and that Ukraine should cede territory so that Putin is not toppled and an unstable Russia results.
President Zelenskyy’s view about Russia’s Belgorod and NATO gives an idea of the likelihood of negotiations happening. Zelenskyy will never sit at a negotiating table with Putin.
Option: Foment distractions for the West
This is already happening — Niger is one example. The objective is to reduce Western commitment to supporting Ukraine. This is only part of a wider strategy and takes time to create war fatigue in Western politicians and their public.
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But it’s too slow to save Crimea.
Option: Play for time
Essentially the do-nothing option with the other options in part. Putin has been playing for time to give his arms industry time to rebuild equipment losses.
Putin has been playing for time hoping that the 2024 US Presidential Election will tip the balance in his favour. But Trump is looking increasingly unelectable.
But it’s too slow to save Crimea.
Option: Escalation — increased Land Forces Activity
This will require another round of mobilization and probably a change of leadership. There are rumours that the FSB is pushing Putin in this direction in readiness for the 2024 Russian Presidential election.
According to [Bloomberg], some supporters of tougher warfare, the so-called “war hawks” in the FSB supported the demands of the head of PMC “Wagner” Yevgeny Prigozhin, who insisted on changing the military leadership of the country. In general, the “war hawks” in the Russian special service propose to start fighting in Ukraine more aggressively: to declare martial law and full-scale mobilization.-?textreport.com
The problem is that Russia has taken huge hits to its equipment inventory and to its command structure, losing several thousand tanks and almost three thousand senior officers, for example.
But it’s too slow to save Crimea.
Option: Escalation — issue a major warning
This would be done below the radar — and the sea — outside of Ukrainian territory. It would be deniable. But everyone would know it was Russia.
Russia’s long range TU-95M (‘Bear’) bomber fleet is still highly functional. It regularly tests European and US air defence systems, quite legally, over the North Sea and Arctic. They are already used for launching Kh-101 missiles against Ukraine. But attacking a Western asset would be highly visible — dropping bombs is hardly deniable.
Russia’s Navy is still highly functional — at least outside the Black Sea. They have major ocean-access submarine bases in Archangelsk and Vladivostok. They do not need to send submarines through the closely monitored Denmark Strait or UK-Iceland gap to access the North Atlantic.
In February 2023 the Russian Navy carried out a joint exercise with?South Africa and China?off the South African coast, and just recently an exercise with?China in the Bering Sea.
Nearly a dozen Russian and Chinese ships now moving away from Alaska, officials say
The 11 Russian and Chinese ships that sailed near Alaska's Aleutian Islands as part of a joint exercise are now moving…
So what could the Russian Navy do that would issue a warning to the West and be deniable, at least?prima facie?
They have at least of the older 4 Sierra class and 4 Akula class boats with 3 modern Yasen class nuclear attack submarines currently in service. I couldn’t discover whether any of these were in attendance at the joint exercises off South Africa — or whether those exercises were monitored by NATO vessels.
The South Atlantic and southern Indian Oceans are not seen as particularly strategic from a naval perspective but I guess joint exercises are always of interest for data-gathering.
M-1 Abrams tanks
Consider that the US transports M-1 Abrams tanks and other heavy equipment on ships to the Dutch port of Vlissingen to strengthen NATO’s flanks. And will shortly do so to provide older M-1 Abrams to Ukraine.
These transport ships cross the North Atlantic from ports on the US Eastern seaboard, such as Norfolk. The US has committed to sending M-1 Abrams to Ukraine. Presumably they will follow a similar route and reach Europe in September. Whichever route, it is easily discoverable.
U.S. expects to begin delivering Abrams tanks to Ukraine in September
The news, provided by six people familiar with discussions, marks the most specific information to date on Washington's…
I don’t know whether the US finds it necessary to shadow their Military Sealift Command transport ships with a submarine — I would guess no.
It would be a simple matter for one of theses ships to be sunk by a Russian attack submarine. It could be done by a torpedo or mines, in very deep water, mid-Atlantic. It would be deniable. It would take months — if ever- to prove that it was a Russian device.
How long would it take to prove that it was Russia, to obtain a level of proof sufficient to persuade Joe Biden to go to war with Russia?
Deep ocean recovery is expensive and complex as the CIA found out when they tried to recover the USSR’s K-129 submarine using the purpose-built Glomar Challenger in?Project Azorian.
It would be a warning. It would be non-nuclear.
It would make the West pause and think, but would it be in time to stall the re-capture of Crimea? Perhaps.
You are probably laughing your socks off at this idea.
But remember the Nordstream gas pipelines being blown up in the Baltic?
Was it Russia or was it Ukraine responsible?
My money is on Russia.
Maybe the US should be shadowing the Military Sealift ships.
Conclusion
Who knows what Putin will do next, but he is desperate isn’t he? he is running out of options.
If he sunk a US military sealift ship, it would be a big risk and an act of war, but deniable with plenty of arguments. ‘It could have been an old mine’. ‘The ship carried tanks and ammunition — a smoking accident’. And so on. But it would not be as risky as using a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine — which I am sure he would dearly love to do, but for China.
Whatever Putin does, he will have to do it quickly, because Ukraine’s recovery of Crimea will surely be his death-knell.