Russia's strategy now and Nazi Germany then: remarkable similarities

When evaluating political situations, it helps to understand what happened in the past, and what was the underlying strategy. In the 1930’s, European countries were concerned about the potential expansion by Hitler. Likewise, there are now concerns about Putin’s urge to expand. In both cases, the leaders were the dominant factor.

The rise of Nazi Germany

In Germany, being defeated in World War I, Hitler appealed to the “loser” feeling of the population by promising that Germany would become great again under his leadership. That, combined with providing jobs in the war industry, made Hitler popular.

As European countries were following Germany’s actions, Hitler decided to operate step-by-step. In 1938 he negotiated the Munich treaty, a peace agreement between Germany, France and the UK. France and the UK convinced Edvard Bene?, the president of Czechoslovakia, to give back the part of his country, where the majority of the population were ethnic German (“Sudeten Deutscher”) lived, to Germany. The historic movie “Im Angesicht des Krieges” (in the face of war) suggests that Mr. Chamberlain chose to accept the treaty, even though he knew that Hitler did this to delay a war with Germany and France. This allowed the UK to strengthen their defense forces.

In 1939, Germany started World War II.

Russia’s urge to expand

In analogy, the Crimea autonomous republic within Ukraine has a large ethnic Russian population. Russia’s annexation in 2014 of the Crimea peninsula was excused by “correcting a historical error”. The international community protested, but the move was not big enough to justify military action. Likewise, Russia’s so-called support for the pro-Russian separatists was actually more close to a small invasion. Last October, Russia started moving?army troops and military equipment close to the border with Ukraine. Until now, they kept increasing their presence, sparking concerns over a potential invasion.

Over the past decades, Russia gradually increased its involvement in international conflicts, such as in Syria. Putin did not hide that he wants Russia to be taken seriously as one of the leading powers.

It is obvious that Putin has expansion plans: he wants to bring back the glory of the Soviet Union in a step-by-step mode, similar to Hitler’s strategy to avoid direct war. The Russian “support” involvement in Belarus and Kazakhstan (last week) fit that plan.

The NATO dilemma

Like in 1938, Europe and the USA wish to avoid war and try diplomacy as long as possible. When Russia would do a large-scale invasion, this would certainly invoke a large-scale NATO response. Like Hitler did in 1938, the most likely move by Putin will be to continue with small steps. Don’t be surprised when Russia takes over control in Belarus and/or Kazakhstan with the excuse of “help to their brother nations in trouble”

Economic sanctions may be the only answer when Russia continues the step-by-step approach. In the meantime, it is high time to strengthen the European defense forces with high priority. Only when the West is stronger, there is no incentive for Russia to start a war. Because like Hitler, Putin is a smart strategic thinker, I regret to admit. He will not start a war when the odds are against him.

However, when Putin has a chance to expand and get away with it, there is no reason to assume that he will not seize the opportunity.?That is the real threat and I hope the leadership will not give him the opportunity by acting as one front and strengthening and uniting (close cooperation) the European armies.

Update February 17

I am glad to see that the NATO partners have shown to act as one force and sent arms to strengthen Ukraine, as well as leaving no doubt that the sanctions in case of an invasion would be the most severe ever. That will have slowed down Putin, as the cost of war is an important criterion. The danger of an invasion however is not gone. Although Russia says to withdraw troops and materials, intelligence reports show an increase in border activity. It is good that this is a very visible public discussion.

My view is that, even when the invasion does not take place and Putin returns to smaller-scale games, there will be another long cold war with Russia. Don't be surprised as Russia will continue to suppress the gas output, causing high prices - like now. This way they have a form of control over the West and they enjoy higher prices.

If I were the leader, I would choose to increase nuclear energy ASAP (as much as I am a renewable energy advocate, but I know RE cannot solve the gap - at least not fast enough) and rush the energy transition. Both take many years, but if you don't make a start, it will take longer...

P.S. A retired general of the Netherlands, Tom Middendorp, wrote an interesting, eye-opening book, explaining how climate change can lead to wars. Link to the TV program "Een Vandaag" of 16feb2022 hereto (in Dutch): https://www.dhirubhai.net/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6899996519227801600?

Update February 19

Donetsk rebel families are being sent to Russia stating the fairy tale that this was urgently necessary because they are being threatened by Ukraine forces. Putin apparently thinks that this is an acceptable excuse to invade Ukraine.

Another similarity between Germany and Russia is they faced humiliation some 2 decades ago (Germany lost WW1 and the USSR was dismantled). Hitler and Putin have in common being despots, who nip all opposition in the bud.

I have no doubt that Putin will give the sign for the attack anytime now. Likely rockets, followed by ground troops. I sincerely hope that a miracle happens and I will be proven wrong.

My generation was lucky to experience life in peace. Needless to say more.