In Russia’s Poorest Regions, War in Ukraine Exacts Heavy Toll
WSJ: In Russia’s Poorest Regions, War in Ukraine Exacts Heavy Toll
Many of the dead come from Siberia and other far-flung regions with fewer opportunities
KYZYL, Russia—In the opening months of?Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Vladislav Khovalyg, the head of Tuva, a region in remote southern Siberia, kept a running tally on social media of local men who had been killed fighting in the conflict, lauding their patriotism and heroism.
On March 5, he named Akhmet Maadyb and Sodunam Shalyk. Two days later, he posted news of the deaths of Adygzhy Kuular and Pavel Knyazev. Then on March 14 came Junior Sgt. Eduard Bilzen, Cpl. Adygzhy Mongush and Cpl. Romaz Oyun, all from the 55th Motorized Rifle Brigade, based in Tuva’s capital. More names followed in April and May.
Eventually, as the losses mounted, Mr. Khovalyg stopped listing them. Defense officials in Moscow haven’t offered any official count of the nation’s casualties since March. At that time, the toll stood at 1,351 killed in what Russia’s government terms a special military operation.
Authorities in Russia have sought to keep the lid on the number of Russian soldiers who have died in the?war in Ukraine. Neither the Kremlin nor Russia’s Ministry of Defense responded to a request for comment as to why updated war-dead figures haven’t been published since March, or to the claims by Western and Ukrainian officials that Moscow has been intentionally hiding the data from the Russian public since the March numbers were released following the Feb. 24 start of Moscow’s military campaign....
Many of Russia’s war dead are from places like Tuva and other less-developed communities on the country’s margins, based on obituaries in local media, social-media posts from relatives and information from regional officials. In these areas, jobs are often few and the military offers security and a chance at a better life....
Tuva ranks third from the bottom out of the nation’s 85 regions in overall socio-economic indicators that include poverty levels, unemployment and life expectancy, according to government data compiled by state news agency RIA Novosti and released in May....
The average monthly income is around 20,000 rubles, the equivalent of about $328 at current exchange rates, compared with Moscow, where it is $1,550 a month. And almost a third of Tuva’s population lives below the poverty line, meaning their earnings are below the nation’s recommended average monthly subsistence income of 11,908 rubles, around $196. Family sizes are typically larger than the national average of one-to-two children, sometimes consisting of four children, meaning incomes need to stretch further.
There isn’t a railroad through the region. The only way to get there is by air—a near five-hour flight from Moscow—or by road. The nearest big city from Kyzyl is a four-hour car ride away.
High casualty numbers have been recorded in other depressed areas, such as Buryatia in eastern Siberia, the Republic of Altai in southern Siberia, North Ossetia in the North Caucasus and, further west, in Pskov region, according to information gathered from obituaries published in local publications, social-media postings, statements from regional officials and municipal administration websites.
All of these are placed among the bottom 15 regions nationwide in terms of their social and economic development. And all, like Tuva, are located along Russia’s borders, often home to military bases...
Moscow?relies heavily on conscription, which provides a third of the total personnel. Men aged 18 to 27 are eligible for the draft and each year between 250,000 and 270,000 are conscripted for a 12-month period, according to government data. Potential draftees sometimes pull whatever strings they can to avoid being called up and desertion has been a problem according to some Western analysts, military decrees viewed by the Journal, as well as soldiers accused of desertion and lawyers defending them. In Tuva and other poorer regions, young men often seek out a military career. (ctd.)
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WSJ: In Major Advance, Ukraine Drives Russians Out of Key Eastern City
Ukraine marks its biggest strategic gain since mounting offensive this week, closing in on vital town and cutting off supplies to thousands of Russian troops
Ukrainian forces seized most of a strategically vital city in northeastern Ukraine on Saturday, cutting the main supply line to thousands of Russian troops near the eastern city of Izyum and marking the biggest strategic gain Ukraine has made since the start of?an offensive this week.
Photos from Russian and Ukrainian channels on Telegram showed Ukrainian soldiers holding the country’s flag in front of the city hall in Kupyansk, and Kremlin-loyal Russian military correspondents said Moscow’s forces had pulled back across the Oskil River to the eastern part of the city.
Ukraine’s control over the critical infrastructure of the city and the success of this week’s advance signal to Western backers?the effectiveness of weapons?the U.S. and Europe has given to Kyiv.
The Kupyansk rail and road hub located in the western half of the city was the last artery connecting Russia with thousands of troops on territory that represented the bulk of Russia’s gains in May and June. Ukraine’s control of the road network also threatens Russia’s hold on Izyum, a city Moscow had planned to use to launch further attacks on Ukrainian-controlled parts of the Donetsk region in the country’s east.
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The U.K. Defense Ministry said Saturday that Izyum was becoming increasingly isolated. Analysts say Ukraine is aiming to encircle a pocket of Russian troops around Izyum east of the Oskil River.
“Izyum will soon be ours,” said a Ukrainian commander fighting near the city.
In the weeks leading up to Ukraine’s offensive, Kyiv’s forces used Western-made weapons, including?High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or Himars, against Russian supply lines and front-line positions. With the Ukrainian thrust east building steam, Russian resistance has folded in recent days...
“Kupyansk is undoubtedly a tasty target for the Ukrainian Armed Forces insofar as it is an intersection of railroads and highways and is a logistical base that supplies materiel for practically all our troops west of the Siverskyi Donets River, so the stakes are very high,” he said.
The advances made by Ukrainian forces are important for Kyiv’s forces, which have been facing their own hardships with supplies of artillery and ammunition.
On Saturday, Oleh Synyehubov, the head of the Kharkiv region, where the bulk of Ukraine’s gains has been made in recent days, praised the armed forces from the city of Balakliya, which was taken from the Russians earlier this week....
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Ukraine Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment
The Russian Federation’s invasion of Ukraine, which began February 24, 2022, has caused significant civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure and has taken a severe human, social, and economic toll. As a result of the war, which still continues after more than six months, dwellings and public infrastructure have been demolished or damaged, public services and economic activity have been impeded, and significant numbers of Ukrainians have been displaced from their homes. This Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA) is part of an ongoing effort, undertaken jointly by the government of Ukraine, the World Bank, and the European Commission and supported by other partners, to take stock of Ukraine’s damage and losses from the war - but just as importantly to assess the scale of economic and social needs for Ukraine’s survival during the war and its prospering afterward.
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China Leadership Monitor?(CLM): From Strategic Reassurance to Running Over Roadblocks: A Review of Xi Jinping’s Foreign Policy Record
The conduct of China’s foreign policy over the past decade has grown more nakedly ambitious and tolerant of friction in pursuit of national objectives. China’s leaders seem to have concluded that the country has grown too strong to feign modesty of ambition. Rather than seek to placate external anxieties about China’s rise, they seem to have decided it is better to amass strength and compel others to accept China’s ambitions and conduct. During the past decade, China’s economy has grown and become more integrated within East Asia. The People’s Liberation Army has gained strength. China also has exercised greater leadership on issues of global governance and built a growing number of international partnerships. These and other developments have imbued China’s leaders with confidence that historic trends are in their favor. At the same time, Beijing’s growing assertiveness has activated pushback from the United States and its partners. China’s relations with virtually the entire developed world have grown strained and its image in these countries has plummeted. Even so, China’s leaders seem to want to put the world on notice that they are prepared to confront any country that dares stand in their path of “national rejuvenation.”?
About CLM: CLM was launched in 2002 under the editorial leadership of Alice Miller at the Hoover Institution of Stanford University.?
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