Russia's Amphibious Assault Warships Consolidation in Black Sea spells - War

On April 21st at 10 am BST, 12 noon MSK, 5 am ET., Putin's much delayed annual Federal Assembly - State of the Nation Address will occur. The prospects for this speech containing claims of justification for military actions are a pregnant possibility. The issue of water supply for the Crimea will no doubt factor predominantly as a health emergency justifying any military action. The effects of climate change are on full display in Crimea and the implications from the violation of Ukraine's territorial integrity. Lack of rain during the winter season has depleted the 22 reservoirs to critical levels, with a potential combined capacity of 334 million cubic meters. Health concerns abound since the illegal seizure of the Crimea by Russia. In response to the invasion Ukraine cut the supply of Crimea's traditional source of drinking water from the mainland. Ukraine had supplied roughly 80% of Crimea's supply of fresh water from the Dnieper River - Northern Crimean Canal. Putin, a master at perception management most likely will attempt to justify any military action with such a public health pretext. Like a man who takes over a bank to rob and then complains he is victim when the authorities shut off the electricity and water.

Russia has now consolidated additional amphibious warfare vessels into the Black Sea. This is well beyond mere military exercise levels. Traditionally the Black Sea fleet comprised three Project 1171 Alligator-class vessels. They are used for weekly the "Syrian Express" resupply run to the Russian garrison. Additionally the Black Sea Fleet has four larger Ropucha-class military landing ships. Now Russia has consolidated vessels from the Northern, Baltic and Caspian Fleets into the Black Sea. The augmentation of the Black Sea Fleet includes: 8 vessels of Serna-, Dyugan-, and Ondatra-class landing ships transferred from the Caspian Flotilla and passed under the Kerch Bridge, including three artillery boats, and four support vessels; additionally four Project 775 Ropucha-class large landing ships the Kaliningrad and Korolevfrom the Baltic Fleet, and Kondopoga and Aleksandr Otrakovskiy from the Northern Fleet. They passed northbound through the Bosphorus en route to the Black Sea on April 17th.

Lastly, the Ropucha-class ship Novocherkassk is in the Mediterranean, potentially giving the Black Sea Fleet eight large amphibious ships to participate in any operation to land naval infantry units of the Crimea-based 810th Naval Infantry Brigade on Ukraine’s coast. This is well beyond any previous naval exercise and must be understood as a war footing decision. The “most likely” attack plan is a maritime and land assault on southern Ukraine from Crimea to seize water supply facilities.

Since the occupation of Crimea, Russia has continued to build up its military forces. The build up of these forces in Crimea have sufficient capability and mass for offensive purposes. Ukraine military describe this as "potentially used to conduct unpredictable offense escalatory actions" from Crimea. The military further describes the situation as thus: "Effectively, Kremlin had been turning Crimea into a powerful military outpost. Moscow had already created a formidable standing formation in the Peninsula of more than 32.0 thousand military personnel and very significant amount of naval and air striking platforms."

Russia has deployed over 50 military aircraft to participate in Black Sea exercises. According to the press service of the Russian Military Southern District:

• Su-27SM, Su-30SM fighters and Su-24M and Su-34 bombers, as well as Su-25SM3 attack aircraft, will participate and carry out rocket launches and bombing at sea targets.
• "Pilots of two formations (the 4th Army of the Air Force and Air Defence and the Black Sea Fleet - IF) will carry out the tasks of escorting naval strike groups and acting as part of reconnaissance strike complexes while ensuring security in the Black Sea,"
• Su-25SM3 attack aircraft from the Stavropol Territory were redeployed to the airfields of the Crimea.
• Transfer of formations of the 58th Combined Arms Army, which is stationed in the North Caucasus, for exercises in the Crimea.
• Intelligence received from an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) from the naval aviation and air defence of the Black Sea Fleet was transferred to a detachment of missile ships at sea. 
• "The events will also involve air-planes and helicopters of naval aviation and air defence of the Black Sea Fleet," the press service of the fleet said.

Over the latest few weeks, Russia has accelerated military deployments on the Crimea peninsula:

13 battalion size tactical groups (BTG),

5 mission tailored artillery units, including 6 short-range ballistic missile systems “Iskander”,

one special operations detachment, 

one Electronic Warfare tactical group, 

as well as brigade size helicopter tactical unit.

By the end of the month, the Russian land component in Crimea could account for 23 battle groups with 42.000 troops.

They have integrated all these military assets in joint striking formations that are capable of implementing the entire range of kinetic weapon systems for offensive combat operations.

These military buildups have been matched with the closure of several sections of the Black Sea to passage by foreign vessels between 24 April and 31 October, according to the weekly bulletin of the Navigation and Oceanography Directorate of the Russian Ministry of Defence. The US Navy has been warned to stay out of the Black Sea "for their own good".

Recent additional Operational Dispositions of Russian Forces from the North East Direction

The extraordinary and threatening size of the Russian 110,000 troop military buildup along the Ukrainian border should also be reviewed in particular:

10 battalion size tactical groups (BTG);

2 mission tailored artillery units;

1 special operation detachments;

1 missile air defence unit;

1 Electronic Warfare tactical group; 

4 short-range ballistic missile systems “Iskander” [SS-26 Stone];

up to 60 main battle tanks;

over 440 armoured combat vehicles;

and more than 80 artillery systems, including 22 Multiple-Launch Rocket platforms.

Therefore, in summary, with all these recent deployments Russia could potentially muster 56 battle groups fully combat ready with 110 thousand troops in the vicinity of Ukraine borders.

Sabotage is an additional serious threat

The recent exposure of sabotage in the Czech Republic should now be considered in light of Ukrainian events. The Czech Republic's decision to charge two known Russia’s GRU operatives with suspected poisoning a man who allegedly supplied weapons to Ukraine, and of organizing the detonation of a warehouse in , which destroyed ammunition intended for the Ukrainian army. The Czech police have identified two suspects in the preparation of the explosion: Alexander Mishkin and Anatoly Chepiga.These are the same two GRU operatives from Unit 21955 identified in the 2018 Novichok poisoning of former GRU officer Sergei Skripal and his daughter Julia in Salisbury, UK. This pair, “Russlan Boshirov” and “Alexander Petrov”, have left a trail of death and destruction in operations throughout Europe, unexplicably using the same aliases.

This is a stark warning for all NATO countries that the GRU is operating on war footing and must be considered an active threat for countries supporting the Ukrainian military, especially with ammunition, military weapons etc. Ukrainian Military and Security forces should take particular note and special security measures, including denial and deception of their most important weapon and supply systems, including anti-tank, missiles and air defense assets.

Summary

Moscow now has at least 110,000 heavily armed troops on the North-Eastern border of Ukraine and in Crimea. Russian commanders have moved forward and deployed sniper units all along the East Ukraine border. Russia has also advanced artillery and mortar teams supported by drone aircraft closer to the North East Ukrainian border. The Black Sea is filled with naval vessels and most concerning is consolidation of their amphibious warfare vessels in the Black Sea. This has been matched with over 50 strike aircraft and additional troops have now reached about 50,000 combat troops. The situation is threatening and perilous.

Putin's speech tomorrow is one not be missed!

N.B. My special thanks to my old colleague and friend, Bruce Jones in the UK for keeping me informed of the latest Russian military deployments and to the Ukrainian Military for keeping me up to date on the Russian status of forces.