The Russian invasion of Ukraine: Some assumption and some important news

?RISKS BEFORE PUTIN’S GOVT FROM RUSSIA UKRAINE CONFLICT AS IT ENTERS 2023

?INTRODUCTION

World faces the most dangerous decade since World War II. A day after the US warning, Russian President Putin set to visit Iran next week. Putin bans 'unfriendly' investors from making transactions in Russia and repeats Putin's new message against nuclear war.?Russian President Putin's New Year's address to the nation usually is rather soothing and backed with a soothing view of a snowy Kremlin. This year, with soldiers in the background, Putin, in a nine-minute video shown on TV as each Russian time zone region counted down the final minutes of 2022 on Saturday, denounced the West and?Ukraine for aggression and accused the countries of trying to use the conflict in?Ukraine?to undermine Russia. The conflict in?Ukraine?cast a long shadow as Russia entered 2023. Cities curtailed festivities and fireworks. Moscow announced special performances for soldiers' children featuring the Russian equivalent of Santa Claus. It was a year of difficult, necessary decisions, the most important steps toward gaining full sovereignty of Russia and powerful consolidation of our society, he said, echoing his repeated contention that Moscow had no choice but to send troops into Ukraine because it threatened Russia's security. The West lied about peace but was preparing for aggression, and today it admits it openly, no longer embarrassed. And they cynically use Ukraine and its people to weaken and split Russia, Putin said. We have never allowed anyone and will not allow anyone to do this."

The Kremlin has quieted any criticism of its actions in Ukraine, shut independent media outlets, and criminalized the spread of any information that differs from the official view including diverging from calling the campaign a special military operation. But the government has faced increasingly vocal criticism from Russian hardliners, who have denounced the president as weak and indecisive and called for ramping up strikes on Ukraine. Russia has justified the conflict by saying that Ukraine persecuted Russian speakers in the eastern Donbas region, which had been partly under the control of Russian-backed separatists since 2014. Ukraine and the West say these accusations are untrue. For years, the Western elites hypocritically assured all of us of their peaceful intentions, including the resolution of the most difficult conflict in the Donbas, Putin said. Western countries have imposed wide sanctions against Russia, and many foreign companies pulled out of the country or froze operations after Moscow sent troops into Ukraine. This year, a real sanctions war was declared on us. Those who started it expected the complete destruction of our industry, finances, and transport. This did not happen, because together we created a reliable margin of safety, Putin said.

Despite such reassurances, New Year's celebrations this year were toned down, with the usual fireworks and concert on Red Square canceled. Some of Moscow's elaborate holiday lighting displays made a cryptic reference to the conflict. At the entrance to Gorky Park stand large lighted letters of V, Z, and O symbols that the Russian military have used from the first days of the military operation to identify themselves. The Russian news outlet Meduza, declared a foreign agent in Russia and which now operates from Latvia, posted a video of Zelenskyy, who was a hugely popular comedian before becoming Ukraine's president in 2019, performing in a New Year's Day show on Russian state television in 2013.

Zelenskyy jokes that the inexpensive sparkling wine Sovietskoe Shampanskoye, a popular tipple on New Year's, is in the record books as a paradox because the drink exists but the country doesn't. Adding to the irony, the show's host was Maxim Galkin, a comedian who fled the country in 2022 after criticizing the military operation in Ukraine.

?UKRAINE WAR: FIVE WAYS CONFLICT COULD GO IN 2023

?The conflict in Ukraine is about to enter its second calendar year. We asked several military analysts how they think events on the ground will unfold in 2023. Might it grind on to 2024?

'Russia's spring offensive will be key

??His invasion going backward on the ground - Putin is digging his forces in for the winter to await a new Russian offensive in the spring. Both sides need a pause but the Ukrainians are better equipped and motivated to keep going, and we can expect them to maintain the pressure, at least in the Donbas. Around Kreminna and Svatove they are very close to a big breakthrough that would throw Russian forces 40 miles back to the next natural defensive line, close to where their invasion effectively began in February. Kyiv will be reluctant to halt when the immediate prize is so great. Ukrainian offensives might, nevertheless, pause down in the southwest, following the recovery of Kherson. Crossing over to the east side of the Dnipro River to pressure Russia's vulnerable road and rail links into Crimea might be too demanding. But the possibility of Kyiv launching a surprise new offensive can never be ruled out.

How Russia is rebuilding its key bridge to Crimea

?For 2023, the key determinant will be the fate of Russia's spring offensive. Putin had admitted that about 50,000 of the newly mobilized troops are already at the front; the other 250,000 of those just mobilized are training for next year. There is no scope for anything but more war until the fortunes of those new Russian forces are settled on the battlefield. A short and unstable ceasefire is the only other prospect. Putin has made it clear he will not stop. And Ukraine has made it clear it is still fighting for its life.

'Ukraine will win back its land'

Ukraine will win by restoring completely its territorial integrity by spring 2023 at the latest. Two factors are shaping this conclusion. One is the motivation, determination, and courage of the Ukrainian military and Ukrainian nation as a whole, which is unprecedented in modern war history. The other is the fact that, after years of appeasement of a Russian dictator, the West has finally grown up to realize the magnitude of the historical challenge it faces. This is best illustrated by a recent statement by NATO GS Jens Stoltenberg. "The price we pay is in money. While the price the Ukrainians pay is in blood. If authoritarian regimes see that force is rewarded, we will all pay a much higher price. And the world will become a more dangerous world for all of us." The exact timing of the inevitable Ukrainian victory will be determined by the speed at which NATO can deliver a new game-changing package of military assault weapons (tanks, planes, long-range missiles).

?What weapons are being supplied to Ukraine?

?I Melitopol will become the key battle point in the coming months (maybe weeks). Having taken over Melitopol, Ukrainians will easily move to the Azov Sea, effectively cutting off supply and communication lines to Crimea. Russian capitulation will be formally agreed upon at technical talks after devastating Ukrainian advances on the battleground. The victorious powers - Ukraine, the UK, USA - will shape a new international security architecture.

'THERE IS NO END IN SIGHT

?Vladimir Putin expected Ukraine's passive acceptance of its more powerful neighbor’s actions, with no meaningful involvement of other countries. This grave miscalculation has led to a protracted conflict, with seemingly no end in sight. The winter will be difficult, as Russian attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure will try to break the morale and endurance of an already shattered population. But Ukrainian resilience has proved to be remarkable. They will stand firm. The war will drag on. The prospects for negotiation are bleak. For a potential peace deal, the core demands of at least one side need to change. There is no evidence that this has happened, or that it will happen soon.

?How will the end come, then?

The costs of the war, both material and human, might break the level of commitment of the Russian political elite. The key will be inside Russia. Past wars in which miscalculation was a crucial element, such as Vietnam for the US, or Afghanistan for the Soviet Union, only ended in this way. Domestic political conditions shifted in the country that had miscalculated, making exit - either "honorable" or not - the only viable option. This may only happen, however, if the West stands firm in its support for Ukraine, in the face of increased domestic pressures linked to the costs of the war. Sadly, this will continue to be a long-protracted political, economic and military battle of resolve. And by the end of 2023, it will most probably still be ongoing.

?No other outcome except Russian defeat'

Ben Hodges, former commanding general, United States Army Europe: It's too early to plan a victory parade in Kyiv but all the momentum is with Ukraine now and there is no doubt in our mind that they will win this war, probably in 2023. Things will move slowly over the winter but there's no doubt that Ukraine's forces will be better able to cope than Russia's because of all the winter equipment coming from the UK, Canada, and Germany. By January, Ukraine could be in a position to begin the final phase of the campaign which is the liberation of Crimea. We know from history that war is a test of will and a test of logistics. When we see the determination of the Ukrainian people and soldiers and the rapidly improving logistical situation for Ukraine, We see no other outcome but a Russian defeat.

?Can we expect peace talks to begin?

?The Russian pull-out from Kherson has partly led me to this conclusion. Firstly, as a psychological boost for the Ukrainian people, secondly as a profound embarrassment for the Kremlin, and thirdly by handing Ukraine's forces a key operational advantage - all approaches into Crimea are now within range of Ukrainian weapon systems. We believe that the end of 2023 will see Crimea fully restored to Ukrainian control and sovereignty though there may be some sort or agreement that allows Russia to phase out some of its naval presence in Sevastopol… perhaps even to the end of the treaty (approx. 2025) that had existed before Russia's illegal annexation of Crimea. Reconstruction efforts will be underway on the Ukrainian infrastructure along the Azov Sea coast, including the important ports of Mariupol and Berdyansk, and the reopening of the North Crimean Canal that diverts water from the Dnipro to Crimea will be another important project receiving attention.

?'Expect more of the same

Instead of "how it's going to end" here is what each side would like to achieve in the next phase. Only about half of Russia's 300,000 mobilized troops are already in the fighting zone. The rest, together with the forces freed for action after Kherson's withdrawal, gives the Russians an opportunity to launch an offensive. The occupation of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions will continue but a major Russian breakthrough like a drive from the south to Pavlograd to encircle the Ukrainian forces in the Donbas is less likely. More probable is a continuation of current tactics - a slow grinding of Ukrainian forces on narrow directions and a slow advance, like in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka areas, with possible same tactics in the Svatove-Kreminna area. Continuing targeting of Ukrainian energy infrastructure and other attacks on the Ukrainian rear will complete this war of attrition strategy.

?Significant Ukrainian forces were also freed after a Russian retreat from Kherson. For them the most strategically valuable direction is south, to Melitopol or Berdyansk, aiming to cut the Russian mainland corridor to Crimea. That would be a major Ukrainian victory, and that is exactly why Russians are fortifying Melitopol. Another option for Ukraine is Svatove - success there would endanger the whole northern flank of the entire Russian frontline. The big question is how many Ukrainian forces are free and available for the offensive at this point, and what timetable General Zaluzhnyi has on his desk stating how many new reserve brigades and corps that are being built will be ready in one, two, or three months from now, including manpower, armored vehicles, and heavy weapons. After the mud freezes, we will get the answer to this question. And this answer will get us a little closer to "how it's going to end".

?RUSSIA FACES THREE PIVOTAL MOMENTS IN 2023

In 2023, Russia faces three crucial issues—President Vladimir Putin’s plans for his future, the battle between the hawks and pragmatists in the elite, and looming government personnel changes—that could reshape the country. More than 10 months on from the invasion of Ukraine, the contrast between the scale of the external shocks faced by Russia and the relative inertia inside the country is striking. Despite military failings and punishing sanctions, most Russians have gone on with their lives as though nothing is happening, while the elites have tried not to think about what tomorrow may bring, instead putting their full trust in Putin. However, 2023 could prove a dramatic year for Russia and be make-or-break for its leadership’s resistance to change, with three internal questions, in particular, promising to shape the country’s development for decades to come.?

First, Putin will have to decide whether to run for re-election in 2024. Russia’s constitution was amended in 2020 to allow him to remain president until 2036. He may alternatively name a successor, though to leave enough time for campaigning, he would have to do so by the end of December 2023. For now, no one is sure what his plans are. This is by design, as Putin prefers to keep his elites in the dark. Indeed, in the summer of 2020, he justified the constitutional changes that made it possible to extend his rule as a guard against unrest among the elites, whom he said: “need to work, not look around for successors.” Following the revision of the constitution, both the presidential administration and elites operated on the assumption that Putin would hold on to power indefinitely. Today, the key question is how his calculations have been changed by the war and, in particular, the fact that it has not gone according to plan. Some believe that in unleashing grave problems and threats, the war has strengthened Putin’s resolve to stay in power beyond 2024. Given his contempt for “political deserters”—those who quit their posts in tough times—he is unlikely to become one of them. Others feel that not only is Putin open to giving up power, but he may also see doing so as part of a solution to the conflict with Ukraine. Even if that appears to be wishful thinking, part of the elite clearly hopes that such a reset will suffice to end Russia’s recent string of setbacks. However, both sides lack certainty about his designs. In any case, Putin is famously fond of making decisions at the eleventh hour, often based on situational factors and in defiance of popular expectations. The 2024 problem, then, has become a major source of anxiety for the elites. It will do more than any other issue to influence the events of 2023, as the political class tries to work out Putin’s intentions and plan around them with an eye to minimizing risk.

A second, related issue is the growing schism between those in the elites who favor escalating the war and those who warn against doing so. This divide emerged after Russia’s withdrawal from the Kharkiv region and relinquishing of the key city of Kherson, and was fueled by Ukraine’s strike on the bridge to Crimea, the referendums held on annexing occupied parts of Ukraine, and the authorities’ subsequent ambiguity on what Russia’s official borders are.?The pragmatists, who consist of technocrats as well as mid-ranking officials in the military and the security services, are united in their conviction that the war should be paused and rethought, and that the country should opt for a more realistic policy in keeping with its rather limited capacities. The hawks call for Russia to not only unleash its full military might against Ukraine but also to radically restructure its own political and economic system. The latter plank makes theirs a revolutionary faction (albeit pro-Putin, for now at least) whose aim is to supplant a government they see as stalled. Their struggle for supremacy is set to be one of 2023’s key political fights, and one that hinges largely on events on the battlefield: the worse Russia performs militarily, the more vicious the pragmatists’ battle with the hawks. The Kremlin will find its preferred mechanism for suppressing dissent—repression—ill-fitting if?used against the regime’s loyalists.

The hawks will take the offensive, targeting the military brass and politicians, as Yevgeny Prigozhin, the notorious head of the Wagner private military company, already has. The pragmatists, meanwhile, will express doom and gloom about the direction of the conflict, seeking to scale back Moscow’s war goals and force recognition that victory is impossible. Their message will be well received by non-military elites, who were taken by surprise by the invasion and fear its medium-term consequences. All this leaves Russia stuck between military madness and careful consideration of a possible de-escalation, and Putin is faced with a choice: between doubling down on his quixotic pursuit of Kyiv’s decisive defeat and returning to the negotiating table, with the West if not Ukraine. The third key issue Russia faces in 2023 revolves around government personnel changes, which are highly likely, even if it is hard to predict who will replace whom. One reason a reshuffle is near-certain is the increasing demand at the top for dynamism and effectiveness. Putin’s inclination to invite technocrats into the government may grow further, with senior figures in the cabinet, the presidential administration, and the power structures all aged and exhausted by the war and military failings forcing Putin to look for new ideas. Another is the coming presidential contest, given the historical record: reshuffles have preceded all but one of Russia’s presidential elections. A long buildup of tension within the government offers another reason to expect personnel changes. Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov are being blamed for corruption within the armed forces, while the FSB has been slammed for intelligence failures. Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev is seen as having lost the plot altogether, and Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin as too apolitical, while central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina is suspected of secretly opposing the war.

?The government’s senior figures are all dissatisfied with each other: a mutual dislike that gives Putin cause to switch things up. Still, his conservatism and apprehensiveness when it comes to firing underlings will likely lead him to try to strike a balance between stability and renewal.?These fateful developments will be profoundly influenced by events on the battlefield. If, as Kyiv has predicted, Russia attempts a large-scale offensive in February or March, it will likely be met with significant Ukrainian resistance. Otherwise, Moscow will continue slowly strangling Ukraine with attacks on its infrastructure, to which Kyiv will respond with diversionary attacks on Russian soil. Russian political life will remain in the grip of the war’s grim and oppressive atmosphere, leaving elites even more anxious and fearful of the future. Putin’s hypersecrecy and refusal to explain himself to anyone will do nothing to help the situation. Repression will undoubtedly grow, with all dissent criminalized, elements of a state ideology introduced, and new pretexts found for even longer prison sentences. In 2023, Russia’s already historic war with Ukraine will show its full transformational potential, finally changing Russia from within and straining its leaders’ ability to keep the situation under control and plan the decisions they make.

?Zelenskyy says Russia used anti-ship missile on the residential building; Biden speaks to top Dutch, German officials

Ukraine has said the battle for Soledar continues again rebuffing Russia’s claims that it controls the town but noted that Russian troops are trying to advance toward nearby Bakhmut, a long-standing target for Russia as it tries to gain control of Donetsk and the wider Donbas in east Ukraine. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Monday evening that he had been briefed by military and intelligence chiefs on Russia’s plans in the east and south of the country. Over the weekend, Russian President Vladimir Putin said the dynamics of the war in Ukraine were positive, with everything going according to the defense ministry’s “plan.” Putin has reportedly told his new commander in Ukraine, Gen. Valery Gerasimov, to seize the Donbas region by March. Rescue operations continue in the central city of Dnipro after an apartment block was almost entirely destroyed following a missile attack at the weekend. “The rescue operation in Dnipro will not be finished until the bodies of all the dead are found,”

Ukraine’s agriculture minister warns that a major share of the country’s corn is unharvested

?Ukraine Minister of Agriculture Mykola Solskyi said that a major share of the country’s corn crop is unharvested as Russia’s war disrupts agricultural work. Solskyi said that the corn that remains on the stalk will deteriorate up until harvest. He added that about 85% of the country’s corn has been harvested so far.

Miss Ukraine uses her gown to draw attention to Russia’s war at the Miss Universe competition

Ukraine’s Viktoria Apanasenko wore a stunning white gown with outstretched blue and yellow wings at the 71st Miss Universe competition to draw attention to Russia’s war on her country. She said her costume was designed and made in Ukraine by candlelight due to Russian shelling that has severely damaged civilian infrastructure. Her “warrior of light costume” represents Ukraine’s “fight against darkness,” Apanasenko wrote in a caption on Instagram. Before the pageant, said she wanted to “draw the world’s attention to the sorrows of Ukrainian people and call for all possible measures to stop Russia and cease its despicable and unjust war.”

Boris Pistorius to become Germany’s next defense minister

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz?said he will appoint a regional office as?the new defense minister following the resignation of the much-criticized Christine Lambrecht. The defense minister-designate, Boris Pistorius, is a member of Scholz’s Social Democratic Party and has served as interior minister of Lower Saxony state since 2013. “I am very pleased to have won Boris Pistorius, an outstanding politician from our country, for the post of defense minister,” Scholz said in a written statement. “Pistorius is an extremely experienced politician who has administrative experience, has been involved in security policy for years, and, with his competence, assertiveness, and big heart, is exactly the right person to lead the Bundeswehr through this change of era,” the chancellor added. Pistorius, 62, is scheduled to receive his certificate of appointment from German President ?Steinmeier and take his oath of office in parliament.

?US condemns ‘brutal and barbaric’ missile strike on Ukrainian residential building in Dnipro

The White House called Russia’s bombing of a missile strike on a residential building in the Ukrainian city of Dnipro “brutal and barbaric,” and a violation of international humanitarian law. “We will continue our work to hold Russian forces accountable,” White House press secretary Karine Jean Pierre said of the attack, which killed at least 40 people and wounded many more. Pentagon spokesman U.S. Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder also condemned the attack but declined to say whether the missile that hit the residential building was a hypersonic weapon.

Finnish prime minister calls on allies to support Ukraine for ‘as long as needed

Finnish PM Sanna Marin says that if Russia were to win the war in Ukraine, it should send the message that invading another country leads to gains of land or natural resources. She says Europe and other Western democracies should send Putin the message that “we will support as long as needed — five years, 10 years, 15 years, whatever it takes — we will support Ukraine, and this will not stop.” Speaking at the WEF meeting in Davos, Switzerland, Marin added, “it’s for Ukrainians to decide when they are ready to negotiate when they are ready to make some peace agreement.” She says “the story might have been very different” if Western allies had acted stronger when Russia illegally annexed Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula in 2014. The EU member that shares a long border with Russia is seeking NATO membership. Marin says Finland believed it was best to stay out of the alliance for its own security but then it saw “Russia is attacking another neighbor and we cannot rely on those relations anymore, so we have to seek partnership elsewhere.” All 30 NATO states must approve Finland and Sweden joining the Western military alliance, with just?Turkey and Hungary yet to sign on. Turkey is demanding the Nordic countries tighten counterterrorism measures.

Zelenskyy says Russian forces used anti-ship missiles against Ukrainian residential building

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy said the missile that struck a residential building in Dnipro was a Russian anti-ship missile. ?“An ordinary residential building. Destroyed by an anti-ship missile — an aircraft carrier killer, which was developed back in the days of the Soviet Union,” Zelenskyy said. “This is an unspeakable horror and this is a routine. Unfortunately, this is the routine of the war that Russia brought to our land,” Zelenskyy added. “We want to interrupt the routine of war. And restore the routine of peace.”

Biden discusses Ukraine with the Dutch prime minister at the White House

Netherlands Prime Minister Mark Rutte speaks with U.S. President Joe Biden. The U.S. has been putting pressure on the Netherlands to block exports to China of high-tech semiconductor equipment. The Netherlands is home to ASML, one of the most important companies in the global semiconductor supply chain. ?Biden met with Mark Rutte of the Netherlands at the White House and discussed ways to “further deepen” cooperation and address “global issues of mutual interest.” “They reviewed our steadfast political, security, economic, and humanitarian support for Ukraine in the face of Russia’s brutal war of aggression, including our efforts to hold Russia accountable for its abuses and for the war crimes committed by Russian forces,” according to a White House readout of the meeting. The two leaders also discussed trade and the importance of secure supply chains.

??Milley meets their Ukrainian counterpart in person for the first time since the war began

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff U.S. Army Gen. Mark Milley met in person for the first time with his Ukrainian counterpart. Milley traveled from a military base in Poland to an undisclosed location near the country’s border with Ukraine,?according to a report from The Washington Post. The meeting was previously not disclosed for security purposes. Milley also visited Grafenwoehr, Germany where the U.S. and allies host combined arms training of Ukrainian troops. The nation’s highest military officer is due in Brussels, Belgium on Wednesday for a NATO military chief meeting.

Biden speaks with German Chancellor Scholz as Berlin taps new defense minister

U.S. President Joe Biden spoke with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz about ways to aid Ukraine, according to a White House readout of the call. “The leaders discussed their steadfast support for Ukraine and condemned Russia’s aggression,” the readout added. Earlier in the day, Scholz named Boris Pistorius as Germany’s next defense minister after Christine Lambrecht resigned Monday over criticism of her handling of the slow supply of offensive weapons to Ukraine.

?Three ships leave Ukrainian ports under Black Sea Grain Initiative

Three vessels carrying 119,000 metric tons of grain and other food products have left Ukrainian ports, the organization overseeing the export of agricultural products said. Two ships are destined for Turkey and are carrying wheat. The third vessel is headed to China with corn. The?Black Sea Grain Initiative, a deal brokered in July among Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, and the United Nations, eased Russia’s naval blockade and saw three key Ukrainian ports reopen. So far, more than 650 ships have sailed from Ukrainian ports.

NATO sends surveillance aircraft to Romania to bolster its eastern flank

Romania receives NATO’s powerful Airborne Warning and Control System, or AWACS, surveillance aircraft. The militarized Boeing 767 plane is equipped with long-range radars and sensors designed to detect incoming air and surface threats. Mania will use the aircraft to monitor Russian military activity near the borders of the 30-nation military alliance. The Western military alliance has strengthened its presence in the region since Russia invaded Ukraine, which borders Romania, a NATO member. AWACS planes can detect aircraft hundreds of kilometers away, making them a key capability for NATO’s deterrence and defense posture. The planes arrived near Bucharest, and are part of a fleet of 14 NATO Boeing E-3A AWACS aircraft, usually based in Geilenkirchen, western Germany.

Ukraine’s first lady will deliver a letter from Zelenskyy to the Chinese leadership

Ukraine’s first lady told the WEF she would deliver a letter to China’s delegation setting out President V Zelenskyy’s proposals for ending Russia’s war?against his country. China, like Russia a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, is an important partner for Moscow and has refused to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In a speech urging delegates to do more to help end the war, Olena Zelenska said she planned to hand the letter to Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He who spoke after her for passing on to President Xi Jinping.

She said she also had letters for European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Swiss President Alain Berset. “Today I will give the colleagues participating in this part (of the forum) ‘formula letters’ from the president of Ukraine,” she said in Ukrainian.

Russia’s defense minister visits troops as the war in Ukraine drags on

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu arrives for a signature ceremony of an initiative on the safe transportation of grain and foodstuffs from Ukrainian ports, in Istanbul, on July 22, 2022. - As a first major agreement between the warring parties since the invasion, Ukraine and Russia are expected to sign a deal in Istanbul today to free up the export of grain from Ukrainian ports. The deal has been brokered by the UN and Turkey. Russia’s Defense Minister Sergei?Shoigu has visited Russian troops involved in Ukraine, the?ministry said. “Sergei Shoigu thanked the servicemen who courageously?perform tasks in the special military operation zone, and?presented state awards to the servicemen for their dedication?and heroism,” the ministry said in a statement on its Telegram?messaging app. Russia calls its invasion of Ukraine a “special military?operation,” while Kyiv and its allies say it is an unprovoked,?imperialist land grab.

?Ukraine’s Kuleba calls on European Parliament to establish a special tribunal to hold Russia accountable for its aggression

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba called on the European Parliament to establish a special tribunal to investigate Russian crimes against Ukraine and hold Moscow accountable. “I call on members of the European Parliament to support the establishment of a special tribunal for the crime of aggression against Ukraine by passing a relevant resolution this week,” Kuleba wrote on Twitter. “No impunity for Russia’s political and military leadership. They must be held accountable,” he added.

?UN says more than 7,000 killed in Ukraine since the start of the war

The United Nations has confirmed at least 7,031 deaths and 11,327 injuries in Ukraine since Russia invaded its ex-Soviet neighbor on Feb. 24. The Office of the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights said the death toll in Ukraine is likely higher because the armed conflict can delay fatality reports. “Most of the civilian casualties recorded were caused by the use of explosive weapons with wide area effects, including shelling from heavy artillery, multiple launch rocket systems, missiles, and air strikes,” the international organization wrote in a release.

Russian economy likely shrank 2.5% in 2022 but beating expectations, Putin says

President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday that the Russian economy was likely to have shrunk by 2.5% in 2022, but that it was performing better than most experts had predicted. Putin, who was speaking at a meeting with top officials including the finance minister and central bank chief, said real wage growth needed to be stimulated.

Russia needs to be pushed harder with sanctions, Lithuania’s president says

Ukraine’s allies need to apply more pressure on Russia through sanctions, Lithuanian President Gitanas Naus?da told CNBC at the World Economic Forum in Davos. “Sanctions have some impact on the Russian economy. Sometimes our expectations are higher than [the] real result but it does not mean that sanctions are not effective. They are effective but with a certain time lag,” Naus?da told Joumanna Bercetche. “Of course, the success of Ukraine’s armed forces on the battlefield is just critically important,” Naus?da said, calling for the provision of better air defense systems and tanks to the country. He also discussed the difficulty of Ukraine getting NATO membership in the near term due to the ongoing conflict and the need for the alliance to find “guarantees” for the country without membership; and Lithuania’s commitment to strengthening its own armed forces and increasing military spending to 3% of GDP.

Kremlin says the planned Russian army increase is due to the Ukraine war

The Kremlin has commented further on Russia’s proposals to increase the number of military personnel it has to 1.5 million, as announced in December, saying the West was a threat to Russia. Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov was asked by reporters to comment on discussions held by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu today on increasing the number of troops within Russia’s armed forces over the next few years. Russia’s defense ministry says it currently has 1.1 million military personnel,?state news agency Tass reported. Peskov said the defense ministry’s proposals to increase the size and structure of the armed forces were “due to the war that the countries of the collective West are waging, a proxy war that includes elements of indirect participation in hostilities, and elements of economic, financial war, legal war, going beyond the legal field, and so on,” he said, referring to the war in Ukraine, which Moscow (and equally many analysts in the West) see as a proxy war between the West and Russia. “The security of our country must be unconditionally ensured, and in this case, the Ministry of Defense is fulfilling its role,” Peskov said, in comments translated by NBC. There are continuing concerns in Russia that another wave of mobilization could take place as Russia looks to increase its manpower in Ukraine. In December, ?Putin said there was no need for more mobilization but that there hasn’t been enough to allay fears of another draft. Peskov claimed Tuesday that the “topic is constantly artificially activated both from abroad and from within the country. I still suggest that you remember all the time the relevant statements that President Putin made on this matter.”

?Russia plans ‘major changes in armed forces from 2023 to 2026

Russia said on Tuesday that its armed forces would undergo “major changes” from 2023 to 2026, including changes in its composition and administrative reforms. The defense ministry said that the changes would happen as Russia boosts the number of its military personnel to 1.5 million. “Only by strengthening the key structural components of the Armed Forces is it possible to guarantee the military security of the state and protect new entities and critical facilities of the Russian Federation,” Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said.

Putin has told a new army commander to seize Donbas region by March, official claims

Putin has reportedly instructed the new commander of Russia’s armed forces in Ukraine to seize the eastern Donbas region by March. Andriy Yusov, a representative of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, told the domestic Freedom TV channel that Putin had ordered Gen. Valery Gerasimov, a Putin loyalist, and head of Russia’s armed forces, to seize the region within months. “Putin does not pay attention to reality, that is why he has not changed his global goals: the destruction of Ukrainians as a people, a separate nation and the destruction of Ukraine as an independent state,” he said, according to comments translated and reported by news agency Ukrinform. Adding that the priority for Russia was capturing the Donbas (an aim openly and often stated by Moscow), Yusov said Gerasimov had been set a timeline for doing so, noting “this goal is to seize Donbas and form a security zone there, but already by March. “Gerasimov was appointed as the commander of Russia’s forces in Ukraine last week as Russian forces have made few advances in recent months, instead becoming caught in attritional combat in Donetsk, particularly around Bakhmut where intense fighting has continued for months. Yusov said Russia had previously set deadlines for capturing parts of Ukraine but that each time, these had been postponed. CNBC was unable to verify the information in Yusov’s comments.

Soledar shouldn’t be considered lost yet but Bakhmut is Russia’s next target, official says

Ukraine says its forces are continuing to fight in the Donetsk town of Soledar, which Russia claimed to have fully captured last week, and said Russian forces are trying to move toward nearby Bakhmut, which is seen as their larger target in the region. Serhiy Cherevatyi, the spokesperson for Ukraine’s eastern military command, commented on national television on Monday that “eastern Ukraine remains the main target of the aggressor’s attack.” “The enemy focused the main efforts on the Bakhmut direction, especially near Soledar, where battles are raging. Ukrainian units continue holding the defense in the city itself and its outskirts,” Cherevatyi said. Soledar cannot be considered to have been captured by Russia, he said, as battles for the city are still underway. “Our armed forces are making every effort to make them [Russian forces] pay an incredible price for every inch they are trying to move over,” Cherevatyi said. Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War?noted in an update Monday?that Russian forces made additional territorial gains north of Bakhmut and may be intensifying attacks south of the city, near Klishchiivka.

Maxar satellite imagery of bombed-out apartment buildings and homes in Soledar, Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy said Monday evening that he had received the latest briefings from commanders and intelligence chiefs regarding the war. “The situation in the Donetsk direction was considered separately and in detail. Soledar, Bakhmut, and other cities against which Russia has concentrated its last most prepared forces,” he said. “We also reviewed the situation on the southern front. We see what Russia is preparing,” he said, providing no further details.

Top U.S. general visits training site for Ukrainian soldiers

Monday was just Day Two for Ukrainian soldiers in the U.S. military’s new training program, but the message was coming through loud and clear. These are urgent times. And the lessons they will get in the next five weeks on weapons, armored vehicles, and more sophisticated combat techniques are critical as they prepare to?defend their country against the Russian invasion. “This is not a run of the mill rotation,” U.S. Army Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Monday afternoon as he met with commanders. “This is one of those moments in time where if you want to make a difference, this is it.” Milley, who visited the sprawling Grafenwoehr training area?to get his first look at the new, so-called combined arms instruction, has said it will better prepare Ukrainian troops to launch an offensive or counter any surge in Russian attacks. He spent a bit less than two hours at “Camp Kherson” — a section of the base named after a city in Ukraine where Ukrainian troops scored a key victory against Russia last year. More than 600 Ukrainian troops began the expanded training program at the camp just a day before Milley arrived.

?Ukraine prepares for attacks near border with Russian-ally Belarus

Ukraine is growing increasingly prepared for an attack near its border with Belarus, according to NBC News. Belarus and Russia began joint military exercises on Monday. That’s elevated concerns that Russia will launch a new ground offensive near the Belarus-Ukraine border as it did in February, NBC News reported. NBC News spoke to one Ukrainian soldier who described the need to be on high alert as an attack could come anywhere within a span of thousands of miles along the border.

Polish PM to Germany: send Ukraine all weapons, including tanks: A new Leopard 2 A7V heavy battle tank, the most advanced version of the German-made tank.

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said Germany should send Ukraine all the weapons it needs to defend itself against Russia’s invasion, including tanks. Delivering the keynote speech at a ceremony marking former conservative Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaueble’s half-century in parliament, he implicitly criticized Social Democrat Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s reluctance to send heavier weaponry. “I call for decisive actions by the German government,” he said, to applause from gathered, mostly conservative, German legislators. “For all sorts of weapons to be delivered. The battle for freedom and our future is raging as we speak... Tanks must not be left in storehouses, but placed in their hands.”

Latvia’s president says the Western world must help Ukraine resist Russia

Latvia’s President Egils Levites said it’s important to maintain support for Ukraine as the war with Russia continues. “The first reason is that the international community should keep the standard of international law, which is provided for in the Charter of the United Nations from 1945, and we cannot afford to lower this standard,” he told CNBC’s Joumanna Bercetche in Davos, Switzerland “Therefore all states that have committed to peaceful order in the world should commit to helping Ukraine resist this unlawful attack,” he added. Latvia — which itself declared independence from the Soviet Union in 1990, shortly before its collapse — has been, and remains, a staunch ally of Ukraine. Levits said Russia’s invasion was the “gravest violation of the sovereignty of a democratic state” and that solidarity between democracies was vital. “I think all states which are lawful and which want to keep the standard of international law, there is only one decision and that is to support Ukraine.”

Putin’s Wins and Losses

Ukraine’s winter slowed the war, but there have been major developments. Going into the winter, military analysts expected that the fighting in Ukraine?would slow down?as wet and snowy terrain made it too difficult for either Russia or Ukraine to make major offensive pushes. Sure enough, the territorial lines have remained largely the same since a successful Ukrainian offensive in the late summer and fall. Still, some recent battles have been good for Putin, Russia’s president. But other developments especially continued Western unity in support of Ukraine, have gone badly for Russia. (Still, others are just horrible, no matter how they affect the war outcome, including a Russian strike on civilians in the city of Dnipro over the weekend?that killed at least 35 people.) How these developments unfolded could help to decide the next phase of the war.

Putin’s wins

Russia has recorded few battlefield wins since the late summer. Instead, the losses have piled up as Ukraine retook territory in the east and south. But Russian forces recently made gains around the city of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine and?seemingly took Soledar, a town on the outskirts of the city. Ukraine claims it’s still fighting. A victory in Soledar would be more symbolic than strategic, military analysts say. Russia has been deprived of wins in recent months, so any kind of success could help maintain support for Putin’s war. But Soledar itself likely will not play a major role in retaking Bakhmut or the greater region of Donbas, which has been one of Putin’s primary targets. Another success for Putin in recent months is the lack of battlefield losses. Russian defenses appear to have been held in the east and south. Again, analysts expected that battlefield lines would not move much during the winter. But that was not always guaranteed; Ukraine, for one,?promised to continue?its offensive push even in the winter months. That hasn’t happened, allowing Russia to hold territory. By maintaining its defensive strategy, Russia has prevented a cascading, catastrophic collapse — which would be the best hope for a dramatic Ukrainian victory,” said my colleague Julian Barnes, who covers national security for The Times.

Putin’s losses

As the winter began, supporters of Ukraine worried that Western unity could begin to break. Europeans in particular faced the prospect of a cold winter and skyrocketing energy prices, fueled by sanctions against the Russian oil and gas that provided power for much of the continent. But with proper preparation and some luck, the worst has not come to pass. European nations stocked up on gas from alternative sources, like the U.S., Nigeria, and?Qatar. And the winter proved to be relatively warm, allowing Europeans to avoid some of the higher fuel prices, as?my colleague Somini Sengupta wrote. Subsequently, Western unity around Ukraine has been held. If anything, it has strengthened. Western powers are promising Ukraine?tanks and other armored vehicles, discarding fears that providing these weapons would be seen as too provocative by Russia. “The debate is not about whether to do less but how to do more for Ukraine,” Julian said. Putin has again changed Russian military leadership in Ukraine. Russia?recently replaced?Gen. Sergei Surovikin, who also headed Russia’s brutal campaign in Syria, with a close ally of the Kremlin, Gen. Valery Gerasimov. It was the second leadership change in three months, signaling that Putin is unhappy with how the war is going.

Looking forward

Recent events mostly amount to a mixed picture for both Russia and Ukraine. While Ukraine has performed much better than many analysts expected at the onset of the war, it still must make major battlefield gains in the east and south to have any hope of a favorable peace deal. Continued Western unity — and tanks — could help achieve those victories. But Russia’s recent battlefield wins and leadership changes could also help its military overcome previous Ukrainian momentum. Ukrainian officials warned recently that Russia was?preparing for a new offensive, one that could push into their capital, Kyiv, once again. American officials are less sure that Russia has the ability to mount a major new push. Regardless of which side pushes first, the coming battles, as wet and snowy conditions recede, will decide who has the advantage.

• Rescue workers?are still digging?through the ruins of the apartment building in Dnipro, Ukraine, after the deadly missile attack there on Saturday.
• Russians and Ukrainians are?learning to live together?in Bali, Indonesia.
• The families of detainees in Russian-occupied territories are?hoping for a further Ukrainian counteroffensive.

IMPORTANT

• The United States?is set to finalize?a huge military aid package worth around $2.5 billion that includes, for the first time, Stryker combat vehicles, two sources briefed on the matter told CNN. The announcement is not expected to include tanks or the long-range missiles that have been sought by Ukraine.
• President Zelensky reiterated his desire?for Ukraine to join NATO, telling leaders gathered at the World Economic Forum that the alliance is the "best security guarantee for us."
• Ukraine's?interior minister?was among at least 14 people killed after a?helicopter crashed?in a Kyiv suburb Wednesday, officials said.
• Ukraine’s military said Russia is?pressing its offensive?in the direction of the city of Bakhmut, which is?in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region.

?The foreign minister of Turkey and the US secretary of state discuss support for Ukraine

US Secretary of State Antony?Blinken?and?Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu meet at the State Department in Washington, DC, on Wednesday, January 18, 2023. Turkey's Foreign Minister Mevlüt ?avu?o?lu met with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, where they "conducted an extensive dialogue on a broad range of areas of bilateral cooperation and emphasized the significance of our partnership as NATO Allies," according to a joint statement released by the governments of the Republic of Türkiye and the United States. "Minister ?avu?o?lu and Secretary Blinken underlined their unequivocal support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity against Russia’s unacceptable war and reaffirmed their support to find a solution to end the war," the joint statement read. The two discussed methods to strengthen NATO "coordination and solidarity in the face of current threats and challenges," the statement read. Topics of discussion also included NATO's open-door policy as well as letting Finland and Sweden join NATO. Turkey has been the only member?that has voiced opposition?to its membership, on the grounds of terror concerns.?

US set to finalize massive $2.5B aid package for Ukraine

?The United States is set to finalize a huge military aid package for Ukraine totaling approximately $2.5 billion worth of weaponry, including — for the first time — Stryker combat vehicles, two sources briefed on the next tranche of aid told CNN. The package is not yet finalized, one of the sources said but could come before the end of the week.?The new package is one of the largest to be announced since the war started last February, according to one source. It would include more armored Bradley Fighting Vehicles that, combined with the Strykers, is a significant escalation in the armored vehicles the US has committed to Ukraine for its fight against Russia. Mine-resistant ambush-protected vehicles, known as MRAPs, are also on the list, the source said. The announcement is not expected to include tanks or the long-range missiles that have been repeatedly asked for by Ukraine. The US is expected to send Ukraine more ammunition for its artillery systems and HIMARS rocket systems that have been consistent in recent aid packages.?Ukrainian officials have been fiercely lobbying Washington for longer-range missiles known as Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS), which have a range of around 200 miles (300 kilometers). The Biden administration has resisted sending them out of fear of escalating the conflict with Russia. The administration has also?pushed back on sending M1 Abrams?tanks because of logistical and maintenance complications.

Funds for energy support:?The Biden administration also intends to provide $125 million in additional energy support for Ukraine, according to the US Agency for International Development. The funding, which will be drawn from the?2023 Additional Ukraine Supplemental Appropriations Act?passed in December, builds on existing contributions to assist Ukraine in the face of attacks from Russia.?“USAID will utilize the $125 million to procure vital equipment including additional gas turbines, high voltage autotransformers, distribution substation repair equipment, and backup power for Kyiv’s water supply and district heating services,” a statement read.

Ukrainians accuse Russian military hackers of disrupting press briefing on cyberattacks

Russian military hackers appear to be responsible for a cyberattack that briefly disrupted a Ukrainian government press briefing Tuesday on the subject of Russian hacking threats, Ukraine’s main cybersecurity agency said. The briefing, held Tuesday in Kyiv, experienced technical glitches not long after it began, but eventually proceeded. The incident is an example of how control of the information space has been a key aspect?of the nearly yearlong full-scale Russian war in Ukraine.?Ukrainian officials said they thwarted the hack, “no matter how many attempts you make to muffle the voice of the Ukrainian media space,” Ukraine’s state news agency declared on its Telegram channel. A notorious hacking group known as Sandworm, which the US Justice Department has linked to Russia’s military intelligence directorate, was likely responsible, according to a statement from the Ukrainian agency, the State Service of Special Communications and Information Protection (SSSCIP). Sandworm caused power outages in Ukraine in 2015 and 2016, according to cybersecurity researchers, and?tried to do so again?in April 2022, two months into Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.?

?Russian operatives have continued to pummel Ukrainian organizations with a variety of hacks in the months since, according to analysts, from hacks that wipe data from a network to those that knock communications offline. But US officials have credited Ukraine for becoming more resilient to digital disruptions than in years past.?Russian hacking during the war has been "designed to increase the chaos of a conventional invasion, reduce the country's governability, and damage critical infrastructure,” SSSCIP said in a report this week. The rescue operation lasted?more than nine hours, and a criminal investigation into the incident is being conducted by the?Security Service of Ukraine, Zelensky said in his nightly video address. US President?Joe Biden?and Secretary of State?Antony Blinken?expressed their condolences following the deadly helicopter crash, while NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg called it a “new tragedy” for a country that has already suffered during the war.

UN nuclear watchdog?finalizes deployment of permanent missions?to Ukrainian power plants:

The UN nuclear watchdog finalized the?deployment of permanent missions to Ukrainian power plants — including the plants in?Rivne, Chornobyl, and south Ukraine, according to the Ukrainian prime minister following his meeting with the?head of the International Atomic Energy Agency on Wednesday.?The IAEA mission at Khmelnytsky nuclear power plant will also?be functioning soon, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said at a news conference, with all the missions' work continuing during wartime and afterward to restore any damage.?The IAEA continues to expand its presence in Ukraine, Director General?Rafael Grossi said.

Putin?announces so-called "special operation"?to end the war in the Donbas region:?Speaking at a meeting with World War II veterans and survivors of the?siege of Leningrad, Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly said that effectively “full-scale hostilities in Donbas have not stopped since 2014 — with the use of heavy equipment, artillery, tanks, and aircraft.” Putin said “everything we do today, including in the special military operation, is an attempt to end this war," according to Russian state media RIA Novosti. Putin added: "That is the meaning of our operation. And to protect our people who live there, in these territories."

Zelensky reiterates?Ukraine's priority of joining NATO:?"Security guarantees are among the top priorities for us," Zelenksy said virtually via a translator in response to a question from CNN's Fareed Zakaria. "We understand that at the?moment, we're not there yet, unfortunately, Russia?does understand this well, and?they do their damnedest to not?make it easy for us to join. But we are on the way toward NATO, because NATO is the best security guarantee for us, for our country, for our kids."

Ukraine's military says?Russia continues to focus on the offensive?in the eastern city of Bakhmut:?Russia has not abandoned "its intention to capture the Donetsk region,"?Ukraine’s General Staff said in its regular evening statement on Wednesday.

NATO official says the alliance?should prepare for the "long haul"?as Russia’s war in Ukraine continues:?NATO’s Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoan? warned Wednesday the alliance must be prepared “for the long haul” with regards to Russia's war on Ukraine. Addressing defense chiefs at a NATO military committee meeting in Brussels, Geoan? said allies should invest more in defense, ramp up their capacity to manufacture weapons and ammunition, and “prepare for potential future wars.”

?UN nuclear watchdog finalizes deployment of permanent missions to Ukrainian power plants

The UN nuclear watchdog finalized the?deployment of permanent missions to Ukrainian power plants — including the plants in?Rivne, Chornobyl, and south Ukraine, according to the Ukrainian prime minister following his meeting with the?head of the International Atomic Energy Agency. The IAEA mission at Khmelnytsky nuclear power plant will also?be functioning soon, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said at a press conference, with all the missions' work continuing during wartime and afterward to restore any damage.?The IAEA continues to expand its presence in Ukraine, Director General?Rafael Grossi said. Following the meeting,?Shmyhal said,?"For the first time in the history of mankind, nuclear facilities have become an element of an offensive military strategy," adding that Grossi pledged the IAEA's full support in "our efforts to ensure nuclear safety," including at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.

?Zaporizhzhia, with six reactors, is the largest nuclear power station in Europe. The area, and the nuclear complex, have been under Russian control?since the beginning of the war. Grossi and other nuclear experts have been concerned about the threat of a nuclear accident amid shelling around the plant. Shmyhal said Ukraine has asked that the control of the Zaporizhzhia facility is returned to Ukrainian authorities and that there is a "complete withdrawal" of?Russian troops and Rosatom personnel from the plant.?Grossi assured Ukraine that the IAEA would never recognize Russia as the owner of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant., according to Shmyhal. The prime minister added that Ukraine will "continue to insist on limiting Russia's rights and privileges in the IAEA and terminating cooperation with Russia in the nuclear sphere."

?CONCLUSION

There are wild predictions that Russia's war on Ukraine will persist. But it could also end soon. Kremlin regime change, a Russian army collapse, or a Ukrainian win are possible. None of these possibilities should be excluded. The West has crossed many self-imposed red lines. It was once reluctant but now provides Ukraine with?Stinger?and?IRIS-T?low-altitude anti-air missiles,?HIMARS?rocket artillery, and?Patriot?high-altitude air defenses. The United States and Germany have said they will supply?infantry fighting vehicles. Despite this generous Western support and Ukraine's plucky military gains, pessimists are legion. Some foresee a?frozen conflict. Some worry that Russian President Vladimir Putin will dig in his heels, viewing the fight as existential and?denying Ukraine's identity. Some say he?plans a long war?or predicts?no one will win. The conflict has lasted longer than many regional wars, and no victory or retreat is in sight. The doubters may be right. The conflict has lasted longer than many regional wars, and no victory or retreat is in sight. Predictions merit only guarded confidence when so many have proven wrong, e.g., that Kyiv could?fall within days?or Russia would quickly gain?air superiority?over Ukraine. Policymakers might be judicious, however, to consider not only the possibilities of a long war but also how it might end sooner.

Putin Could Fall

Putin's ex-KGB cohort in the Kremlin could be in trouble. A surprise,?poorly executed draft?of several hundred thousand men has been unpopular. Defeats in Ukraine have sparked a torrent of?hardline pro-war criticism. Some?Kremlin insiders?may be experiencing growing discontent. Putin could be pressured or ousted by?renegade security forces, such as those led by hardliners Yevgeny Prigozhin (Wagner Group) or Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov.

My comment:

It is certain that Ukraine can not win the war or proact only from the USA, NATO, EU, etc. support directly and indirectly. Initially, the above was supported by condemnation but the relief provided was not adequate. In diplomacy, Ukraine won undoubtedly. It is logically wrong that by annexing Ukraine, Russia will further make strength, there is better to introspect about how much they gain or lose. Putin in diplomacy does not show their adroitness. Now it is the cyber era or virtual world. It is expedient to remain in the mainstream of global arena. Since the beginning, Ukraine has been showing itself a victim and needs more weapons to fight and in their action, their leaders show arrogance. This is the reason any effective steps to solve the problems through peace talks . ?