Russian influence is due to spies, and economic blackmail, while the USA still does not understand "influence" and neglects battlefield victories.

A good case can be made that the USA has not a clue as to the meaning of geopolitical influence, i.e. Germany lost world war II partly due to making use of second raters like Mussolini in Italy, and Quisling in Norway, and the USA allies in Afghanistan were in the Afghani standpoint as lousy as Quisling in Norway, Whereas the collapse in Afghanistan made Americans think Putin was invincible: This is what the dunderhead Putin whom is NOT a geo strategic genius just did.

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Hundreds of German civil servants working in the education and cultural sectors will need to leave Russia following a request by Moscow, a German government source told Agence France-Presse on Saturday, May 27.

The move comes after Russia's decision to force Germany to slash its diplomatic staff and presence at public institutions such as the Goethe Institute cultural organization and the German school in Moscow by the beginning of June, the source said.

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This is called destroying a bridge of soft power between Germany and Russia. Freaking idiotic, but it gets better: The USA due to its disaster in Afghanistan has completely under rated Ukrainian ability to innovate and improve

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Ukraine's success in using the US-made Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems to down Russian weapons has amazed even the Pentagon, a military analyst said.

Ukrainian officials have claimed they have used the?weapon?to?shoot down several?Russian hypersonic Kinzhal missiles, which Moscow previously boasted were unstoppable.

"The United States thought for a long time, discussing whether to give us Patriots or not," Ivan Kirichevskiy, an expert at the?Ukrainian military news publication Defense Express, told Ukraine's Radio NV, according to?Newsweek.

"It turns out that our air defense forces with crash course training literally squeezed out of the Patriot a capability that the Pentagon did not think was possible."

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In Afghanistan, the Afghani soldiers and the like had no real motivation to fight, and were wasting equipment, whereas Ukraine is hyper efficient in use of any hardware offered

whereas this is the blow out point as to the American misconception of Deterrence

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Deterrence, however, is not a tangible object. It is instead a psychological?state. While deterrence is not entirely divorced from the tangible things like the deployment of platforms and stockpiles of munitions, perceptions tend to matter more than action itself. This basic insight should help us better understand the perceived “trade-off” between deterring China and fighting Russia

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It is a state of mind

Here is what Ukraine will do this summer

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May 27, 2023

Ukraine’s top military commander signaled on Saturday morning that the nation’s forces were ready to launch their long-anticipated counteroffensive

“It’s time to get back what’s ours,” Ukraine’s supreme military commander, Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, wrote?in?a statement.

The blunt statement, accompanied by a slickly produced video of Ukrainian troops preparing for battle?and released on social media, appeared?intended to rally a nation weary from 15 months of war and to?deepen anxiety within the Russian ranks. But General Zaluzhnyi offered no indication of?where and when Ukrainian forces might try to break Russia’s hold on occupied territory.

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There was never this level of initiative on the part of Afghani forces, and the Ukrainians have initiative due to the circumstances of the war in Ukraine being totally different from that of Afghanistan

Deterrence is also muddied about due to one real cock up in debates in the USA

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Don’t Sweat the Details

The Ukraine War has depleted American stockpiles, particularly of ground munitions, in the short term. But this raises an interesting question: Does such a shortfall affect deterrence? Perhaps not.

Policymakers too often think about military power in its crudest forms. Case in point: no number of Russian hypersonic missile strikes has?deterred?the United States and its allies from aiding Ukraine.

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The only saving grace is the weakness of Russian soft power in the Ukraine war, as it is backed by spies, espionage and the Russian Mafia

The Russians really suck at "soft power" whereas the USA continually screws up its metrics as to what constitutes deterrence and influence

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GERMANY

WAR IN UKRAINE

Hundreds of German civil servants to leave Russia

A close economic partner with Russia before Moscow invaded Ukraine, Germany has since moved away from Moscow, financially and militarily supporting Kyiv.

Le Monde with AFP

Published yesterday at 12:05 pm (Paris)?

Time to1 min.

Share

Moscow's Red Square on October 21, 2021. DIMITAR DILKOFF / AFP

Hundreds of German civil servants working in the education and cultural sectors will need to leave Russia following a request by Moscow, a German government source told Agence France-Presse on Saturday, May 27.

The move comes after Russia's decision to force Germany to slash its diplomatic staff and presence at public institutions such as the Goethe Institute cultural organization and the German school in Moscow by the beginning of June, the source said.

The source confirmed a report in the German daily newspaper Sueddeutsche Zeitung, which described it as a "diplomatic declaration of war by Moscow."

"This is a unilateral, unjustified and incomprehensible decision," the German foreign ministry said. A close economic partner with Russia before Moscow invaded Ukraine, Germany has since moved away from Moscow, financially and militarily supporting Kyiv in the conflict.

Since the onset of the war, Russian espionage in Germany has grown at a rate rarely equaled in recent years, according to German security services.

In April, Germany expelled a number of Russian diplomats "to reduce the presence of intelligence services" which prompted a tit-for-tat response from Moscow with the booting out of some 20 German embassy staff.

The Russian foreign ministry in April set a ceiling for the number of German diplomats and representatives of public organizations allowed to stay in Russia, the German foreign ministry said.

"This limit set by Russia from the beginning of June implies major cuts in all areas of (Germany's) presence in Russia," the source said.

The ministry did not provide a figure for the number of people affected, but a government source said the Sueddeutsche Zeitung's report of several hundred people affected was "correct." German authorities have tried in recent weeks to get the Russian ministry to reverse its decision, but without success, the paper said.

During the spring of 2022, Germany already expelled some 40 Russian diplomats who Berlin believed to represent a threat to its security.

Last October, the head of German's cybersecurity agency, Arne Schoenbohm, was fired after news reports revealed his proximity to a cybersecurity consultancy believed to have contacts with Russian intelligence services.

A month later, a German reserve officer was handed a suspended prison sentence of a year and nine months for spying for Russia.

Read more Article réservé à nos abonnés 'Behind Ukraine's planned military counteroffensive, there are still incompatible diplomatic ulterior motives'

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Whereas

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HOME??MILITARY & DEFENSE

Ukraine has squeezed out of the US-Patriot missile system a capability that the Pentagon did not think possible, military analyst says

Alia Shoaib?May 27, 2023, 10:17 AM EDT

• Ukraine claims it has used US-made Patriot missile systems to down Russian hypersonic missiles.
• A military expert said Ukraine's success with the weapon had amazed the Pentagon.
• The weapons are among the most advanced surface-to-air missiles sent to Ukraine.

Ukraine's success in using the US-made Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems to down Russian weapons has amazed even the Pentagon, a military analyst said.

Ukrainian officials have claimed they have used the?weapon?to?shoot down several?Russian hypersonic Kinzhal missiles, which Moscow previously boasted were unstoppable.

"The United States thought for a long time, discussing whether to give us Patriots or not," Ivan Kirichevskiy, an expert at the?Ukrainian military news publication Defense Express, told Ukraine's Radio NV, according to?Newsweek.

"It turns out that our air defense forces with crash course training literally squeezed out of the Patriot a capability that the Pentagon did not think was possible."

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had long been requesting the US to send defensive surface-to-air missile systems,?which can strike aircraft, cruise missiles, and shorter-range ballistic missiles.?

The US-provided systems finally arrived in Ukraine in April, with Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov?tweeting: "Today, our beautiful Ukrainian sky becomes more secure."

The Netherlands and Germany also said they would send Ukraine the weapons.

It is unclear how many Patriot missile systems Ukraine has, but they are among the most advanced surface-to-air missiles sent to Ukraine.

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Also

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WHAT WASHINGTON GETS WRONG ABOUT DETERRENCE

RAPHAEL S. COHEN

MAY 22, 2023

COMMENTARY

Ever since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine almost 15 months ago, two camps have consistently opposed American military aid. Unsurprisingly, there are the traditional?anti-war?activists and “restraint” advocates who opposed most American military involvement in foreign wars. While these groups generally condemn Russian aggression, they note that Russia did not directly attack the United States. As such, the costs of long war with Russia and the risks of escalation outweigh the benefits of backing Ukraine.?

A second but perhaps more interesting group, though, is the China hawks. While much public attention has been focused on Ukraine, China has?ramped?up its military pressure on Taiwan and engaged in increasingly?caustic?rhetoric toward the United States. As a result, some?Republican politicians,?commentators,?and?conservative voters?have drawn a causal relationship between the two stories. This grafted narrative goes something like this: America’s?provision?of thousands of pieces of equipment, millions of rounds of ammunition, and tens of billions of dollars in aid to Ukraine has wound up undermining its deterrence vis-à-vis?China. A deterrence chit, proponents of this story claim, that has been spent on one region has come at the direct expense of another.

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Deterrence, however, is not a tangible object. It is instead a psychological?state. While deterrence is not entirely divorced from the tangible things like the deployment of platforms and stockpiles of munitions, perceptions tend to matter more than action itself. This basic insight should help us better understand the perceived “trade-off” between deterring China and fighting Russia. From a purely military perspective, Ukraine aid has not harmed efforts to protect Taiwan as much as its critics claim. More importantly, on a psychological dimension, the Ukraine War — and the robust response of the United States and its allies to the challenge — has strengthened the perception of America and its deterrence capabilities.

A Detriment to Deterrence?

Whether America’s aid to Ukraine actually comes at the expense of its ability to defend Taiwan if necessary is, at best, murky. True, the United States has already?obligated?over $100 billion in aid to Ukraine. But as high as that number sounds, it is about?one-eighth?of the Pentagon’s total defense budget, and?less than half?of the $100 billion comes from military assistance; the rest is humanitarian. Moreover, Congress voted that Ukraine aid would come from supplemental funding, which means that the money spent on supporting Ukraine did not come at the expense of other Defense Department efforts, which include deterring China.

Operationally, the Ukraine war has depleted the Army’s arsenal. The United States has sent?thousands?of Javelin anti-tank missiles, Stinger air defense missiles, 155 mm artillery rounds, and scores of HIMARS rocket artillery, howitzers, Bradley fighting vehicles, Abrams tanks, and other weapons systems to Ukraine. It will take the defense industrial base some?time?to replace these losses.

But these “losses” must be taken in context. Despite the war, the Army has doubled down on the capabilities?needed?for the Pacific fight, including long-range missiles and multi-domain task forces. Much of what the Army supplied to Ukraine has been?older weaponry, which will eventually be backfilled with a newer, and presumably better, kit. That, admittedly, will take time given the atrophy in the Western defense industrial base, but the process is slowly under way. The Ukraine War, for example, has prompted the United States?to?correct?a?decades-old?systemic shortfall in its ability to produce its munitions. And it is not just the Defense Department that recognizes the shortfalls; Congress is?seized?with correcting the munitions problem, too. Over the long term, the United States could well be in a better position than before the conflict began.

More importantly, geography dictates that stopping a Taiwan invasion would fall mostly to air and maritime forces, neither of which have been impacted much, if at all, by U.S. assistance to Ukraine. The Air Force’s most recent budget request?grew?the F-35 stealth fighter fleet and the number of KC-46 tankers in order to operate at range in the Indo-Pacific. In December, the service?unrolled?its new long-range B-21 stealth bomber to much fanfare. Perhaps most importantly, the Air Force?continues?to buy more long-range munitions meant to dominate the air and sink ships.

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The Navy offers a similar story. Like the Air Force, the Navy’s budget request for the coming fiscal year grew by over?$11 billion. The service is?continuing?to buy more Columbia-class ballistic missile submarines, Virginia-class attack submarines, and a host of other manned and unmanned naval and air systems — all of which are designed with the Indo-Pacific in mind. As with the Air Force, few if any of these capabilities have been sent to Ukraine. And while the Navy needs more of these capabilities, the defense industrial base?suffers?from a series of constraints, and so even if resources were redirected from Ukraine, it would not solve the naval shortfalls overnight.

Adding to the already robust growth in the Air Force and Navy is the dramatic?growth?in allied military capabilities caused by the Ukraine War. While these do directly count toward the Defense Department’s goals, they also factor into the?deterrence?equation versus China. For example, despite the Ukraine War, a series of allies — including France and, for the first time, Germany —?joined?air exercises in the Indo-Pacific, as Europe has grown more?wary?of the threat posed by China.

Ultimately, it is not clear just how much the Ukraine War hurts America’s ability to respond to aggression in the Indo-Pacific. In the short term, the Ukraine War might have?taken a toll on the U.S. ability to wage a ground war in the region, but as Secretary Robert Gates?quipped, “Any future defense secretary who advises the president to again send a big American land army into Asia … should have his head examined.” Over the long term, the U.S. military — ground forces included — may come back stronger because of the conflict in Ukraine.

Don’t Sweat the Details

The Ukraine War has depleted American stockpiles, particularly of ground munitions, in the short term. But this raises an interesting question: Does such a shortfall affect deterrence? Perhaps not.

Policymakers too often think about military power in its crudest forms. Case in point: no number of Russian hypersonic missile strikes has?deterred?the United States and its allies from aiding Ukraine. Similarly, China vastly?expanded?both its nuclear and conventional military arsenals over the years, but that seemingly has not?dampened?American?willingness?to defend Taiwan. Time and again, it’s the bigger picture — such as?the likely toll of the conflict in national blood and treasure — that matters to deterrence, rather than how many munitions or platforms are in the arsenal. And so the emphasis should not be on stockpiles, but rather on how the war in Ukraine has shaped the broader strategic narrative of U.S. capabilities and defense.

What, then, might those “big” impressions coming out of Ukraine be? There are at least three of them.?First, on the technical level, Western weaponry — even relatively old systems — still work well. One need only look at the hundreds of thousands of Russian?casualties?and the nearly?10,000?pieces of Russian equipment damaged, destroyed, or captured — including some state-of-the-art systems — to see the tangible effects of American military assistance. Given that Taiwan already receives?billions of dollars?in U.S. military hardware, that’s got to give Beijing pause.

Strategically, the Ukraine War underscores that the West is neither as weak nor as divided as?many?presumed. Prior to the Ukraine War, it was an?open question?as to whether the United States and its allies would fight. After all, the United States was mired in internal strife from a contested election and had just suffered an ignominious defeat in Afghanistan.?Polls?showed?rising isolationism among the American population, pushed by “American First” sentiments on the right and anti-war progressives on the left. Two years ago, a slim majority of Americans?supported?defending Taiwan if it was attacked — not particularly robust support, especially given that a war with China would almost?certainly?be?long?and?bloody.

Despite its typical apathy to foreign policy, the American public has shown?remarkable and sustained?interest in Ukraine a year on. That interest and support are important, as military capability is only half of the deterrence equation. The?other?— and in some ways more challenging — aspect of the deterrence equation is demonstrating the will to use force.

Critics often?note?deterrence is context-dependent, and a response to one crisis certainly does not preordain a similar response to another. That is true. But in this case, recent history reinforces Taiwan-specific military investments and less tangible no less important pledges. The Biden administration repeatedly?promised?an even more robust response to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan than it has mounted to Russia in Ukraine, and?polls?suggest?that significant numbers of Americans would support such a move. It’s the cumulative deterrence effect, then, that should be the goal.

Above all, the Ukraine conflict shows that wars are fundamentally unpredictable. In Ukraine, a war that?nearly?everyone?thought?would be over in a matter of days and offer a relatively clean Russian victory has ended up dragging on for well over a year and?put?the?Vladimir?Putin?regime?on increasingly shaky ground. That’s an uncomfortable implication for all leaders thinking about using force in the future — no matter whether they are sitting in Moscow, Beijing, or Washington.

Avoiding Strategic Reductionism

At some level, the critics of U.S. support for Ukraine have a point.?Deterrence vis-à vis?China?is?eroding.?Unlike the American-Russian military balance, at least some?military?trends?are going in China’s favor. As a result, Chinese leader Xi Jinping, unlike President Vladimir Putin, can afford to be patient. No matter what the United States does in Ukraine, in the long run, China will be more difficult to deter as its power and ambition grow.

As a matter of policy, however, the key question is how the United States will use the tools it has today to maximize its deterrent effects. From an operational perspective, the Ukraine War has not hurt the military balance versus China. In fact, the United States has demonstrated that it can continue to pursue its Indo-Pacific-focused capabilities while still aiding Ukraine. Moreover, the Ukraine War may even help in the long run if it spurs both the United States and its allies to understand that industrial warfare is not just a topic for the history books and to prepare accordingly.?

More importantly, if indeed deterrence is primarily a psychological effect, then another key question is, what packs more of a punch: a few extra Javelins and HIMARs sitting in Taiwan, or seeing a fellow authoritarian regime with whom you have a friendship that knows “no?limits” impale itself invading a smaller, weaker neighbor?

In an increasingly precarious world, there is an understandable draw toward strategic reductionism — to focus on China as “pacing threat” to the exclusion of everything else. Giving in to this temptation is a mistake. As a global power, the United States?faces?multiple challenges; it simply lacks the luxury of getting to choose one adversary in one region. But even if it did get to choose, deterrence is an elastic commodity. While the United States does face some binary strategic choices, deterring China versus fighting Russia in Ukraine is not one of them.

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Raphael S. Cohen is the director of the Strategy and Doctrine Program at the nonpartisan, nonprofit RAND Corporation’s Project AIR FORCE.

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Whereas

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It’s Time’: Ukraine’s Top Commander?Says Counteroffensive Is Imminent

A blunt statement, accompanied by a slickly produced video of Ukrainian troops preparing for battle, appeared designed to rally the nation and to spread anxiety among Russian forces.

By?Marc Santora?and?Eric Schmitt

Marc Santora reported from Kyiv, Ukraine, and Eric Schmitt from Washington

May 27, 2023

Ukraine’s top military commander signaled on Saturday morning that the nation’s forces were ready to launch their long-anticipated counteroffensive following months of preparations, including recently stepped-up attacks on logistical targets as well as feints and disinformation intended to keep Russian forces on edge.

“It’s time to get back what’s ours,” Ukraine’s supreme military commander, Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, wrote?in?a statement.

The blunt statement, accompanied by a slickly produced video of Ukrainian troops preparing for battle?and released on social media, appeared?intended to rally a nation weary from 15 months of war and to?deepen anxiety within the Russian ranks. But General Zaluzhnyi offered no indication of?where and when Ukrainian forces might try to break Russia’s hold on occupied territory.

Other senior Ukrainian officials also suggested that the counteroffensive was imminent.

Oleksiy Danilov, the head of the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council, told the BBC?in an interview?released on Saturday that Kyiv’s forces were “ready” and that a large-scale assault could come “tomorrow, the day after tomorrow or in a week.”

Ukraine has spent months amassing a powerful arsenal of Western-supplied weapons and training tens of thousands of soldiers in sophisticated offensive maneuvers for the campaign, which military analysts have suggested will most likely focus on Russian-occupied areas of southern and eastern Ukraine.

There were no public indications of large-scale troop movements along the vast front?line on Saturday morning. Both Ukraine and Russia have?engaged in robust informational campaigns?using videos and social media throughout the war.

But the statements from General Zaluzhnyi?and Mr. Danilov?come?as a growing number of senior Ukrainian officials — including the head of military intelligence — have said in recent days that Ukraine now has what it needs to go on the attack.

In many ways, military analysts have noted, the counteroffensive may already have begun.

For weeks, Ukraine has apparently?been seeking to set the stage for the campaign and?“shape” the battlefield through a series of coordinated strikes deep behind enemy lines?aimed at undermining critical Russian logistical operations,?degrading Russia’s combat abilities and compromising Moscow’s capacity to move its forces around the battlefield.

In recent days,?the tempo and range of attacks?deep inside Russian-held territory have increased. While Ukraine’s military has not explicitly claimed responsibility, local Russian proxy officials in occupied areas have reported strikes.

The State of the War

• Wagner Group:?Days?after the capture of Bakhmut, the private military company said that?it was turning the Ukrainian city over to the Russian Army, which must now try to hold on to it without the mercenary force’s help.
• Old Bombs:?Ukrainian and American officials say Russian warplanes?are dropping Soviet-era bombs, which are harder to shoot down, over Ukraine.
• Kremlin Drone Attack:?U.S. officials said the drone attack on the Kremlin this month?was most likely orchestrated by one of Ukraine’s special military or intelligence units.
• Attacks in Russia:?Anti-Kremlin fighters?aligned with Ukraine led a?rare?cross-border assault?into southern Russia. The raid appeared partly intended to?force Moscow to divert its soldiers from the battlefield.

Adding to speculation that the start of a counteroffensive was near, internet and telecommunications went down in some Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine?late Friday.

NetBlocks, which tracks internet outages around the world, said?internet service was disrupted?on the Crimean Peninsula and in parts of the?Zaporizhzhia region?in southern Ukraine — including in the town of?Enerhodar, where Russian forces are occupying Europe’s largest nuclear power plant. Internet service also went down in Berdiansk and Melitopol, two strategically important cities that Russia has turned into military strongholds, according to Netblocks.

“The reason for the internet outage is interruptions in the work of the Russian internet provider Miranda Media, which operates in Crimea,”?the organization reported.

The outage came as Russia and Ukraine accused each other of preparing a provocation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, which is not far from?the front line. On Saturday, the morning after Ukrainian military intelligence warned that Russia was preparing to?“simulate an accident” at the plant, Ukrainian officials said the night had?passed without incident.

Ukrainian officials have been deliberately vague in outlining their military plans, most likely in hopes of maintaining an element of surprise in what has become a widely telegraphed campaign. They have said that the counteroffensive would not be marked by a single event and would probably feature feints and deceptions at the outset.

At the same time, Ukrainian officials also?have sought to temper expectations, warning of a long and bloody fight in the months to come.

Russia still controls more than 40,000 square miles of land across southern and eastern Ukraine, which amounts to about 17 percent of the country, and have had months to fortify their defensive positions.

While?Kyiv continues to seek more advanced weapons for its forces, senior Ukrainian and Western officials have said in recent days that Ukrainian forces?have what they need to launch the counteroffensive.

And the arsenal will continue to grow. A week after?President Biden told U.S. allies that he would allow Ukrainian pilots?to be trained on American-made F-16 fighter jets, a step toward eventually letting other countries give the planes to Ukraine, Ukrainian soldiers started training in Germany on how to operate and maintain American M1 Abrams tanks, according to the Pentagon.

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Whereas

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A secret dealer of death: how Russia avoids sanctions and builds up military power

12 May 2023, 00:00

48 хв

How Russia avoids sanctions and builds up military power?/ 24 Channel

For years, the Kremlin has been building spy networks all over the world in order to interfere in the internal affairs of other countries, to wage wars of aggression and carry out coups. At the same time the Kremlin was able to bear no responsibility for all crimes. This architecture was built by presidents, diplomats and numerous spies who worked undercover.

https://en.24tv.ua/semyon-baghdasarov-helped-russia-circumvent-sanctions-and-trade_n2306994

• 1How Russia exported terrorism to Africa, and how Bagdasarov and the head of ismailites were involved2Friendship with the Germans, influence on Georgia and creation of Armenian proxies3What did the FSB officers rely on when preparing for the occupation of Crimea, and why does Russia need Kherson?4Bagdasarov as a member of slaughter in Syria5Bagdasarovs’ direct ties to russian military industry6UAE, Turkey and Iran: how Russia circumvents sanctions thanks to Baghdasarov7Raiffeisehbank, Ardishinbank and parties in Dubai8To stop Baghdasarov's schemes is a critical task for the whole world

Semen Bagdasarov?is one of such spies. And he is the one through whom the Kremlin purchases spare parts for stolen Boeing and Airbus, trades oil from the UAE, and supplies its petrol industry with raw materials from Turkey. At the same time, the activities of Bagdasarov are carefully hidden, and for the public he remains a propagandist and a former deputy of the State Duma, as well as the head of the organization "Center for the Study of the Middle East and Central Asia". However, this position serves as a cover for many schemes, because the pursuits of the 68-year-old criminal have no more in common with science than the russian church has with religion. Moreover, Bagdasarov is an adviser to the head of JSC "High Precision Systems".

The 24 News Channel learned about these facts after analyzing more than 16,000 letters from Bagdasarovs e-mail, hacked by the?Cyber Resistance team.

After careful examination of each document, we found out how Bagdasarov was involved in Russia's initiation of wars in many countries of the Middle East, Africa and directly in Ukraine, and also exposed a number of large-scale schemes to circumvent the Kremlin's sanctions restrictions. More details - in our material.

It should be noted that for the public Baghdasarov?is associated with propaganda on TV and openly anti-Western rhetoric.?He positions himself as an expert on Eastern issues and a prototype of Zhirynovsky – due to his rough statements. Instead, behind the screen of a scandalous figure hides a well-balanced head of a large intelligence network, the owner of several companies engaged in land theft in the Moscow and Krasnodar regions, as well as the leader of Russian expansion around the world.

How Russia exported terrorism to Africa, and how Bagdasarov and the head of ismailites were involved

The official biography of Baghdasarov claims that he left the military service back in 1995. However, there is a good chance that the "colonel in reserve" is still working for Russian intelligence and the Kremlin elites, who are involved in military coups in many countries.

According to the correspondence of Putin's minion, Bagdasarov was very actively involved in the dense development of a huge pro-Russian intelligence network 14 years ago. Most likely, Bagdasarov started this activity back in the 90s, at least then Yeltsin secretly awarded him the Order "For Personal Courage". The other side of Bagdasarovs’ involvement was a secret mission in "remote areas of Tajikistan and Afghanistan."

It was not surprising that after the official end of military service, Bagdasarov became a head of department for cooperation with Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan of the relevant ministry of Russia. Such a “spy/diplomatic” position.

Bagdasarov in the 90s / Picture from the so-called russian media

In the future, the connections of the "Middle East expert" only expanded, and already in 2009, he was building the relations of the ”gas station masquerading as a country” not only with Asian, but also with many African countries. Of course, we are not talking about official diplomatic relations, but about local gang- and political clans.

Moreover, we can clearly see a very interesting pattern: in almost every African country where Russia established business through Baghdasarov, later coups took place, wars broke out, and units of "Wagnerits" also appeared.

While Baghdasarov was communicating with the head of diplomatic affairs of the Ismaili Imamate, Shafik Sachedina, at the end of August 2009, he wanted to fix some controversial issues regarding the activities of "some famous Russians" in Mali through the the Aga Khan Fund ( Aga Khan – the leader of the Shia movement of the Ismailis).

Baghdasarov's mail regarding the coordination of the Russians' work in Mali / Screenshot from the mail of the russian terrorist

The Aga Khan Development Network was founded to overcome poverty in the countries of Asia and Africa. Nevertheless, the relations of its representatives with Baghdasarov and the Russians for some reason (what a surprise) related to the mining of phosphorite ores in the former French colony.

According to the correspondence, the representatives of the spiritual leader of the Ismailis were unhappy with the fact that the Russians had come to their market and tried to exclude them from the mining.

Deputy Bagdasarov was involved in the organization of phosphate mining in Mali / Screenshot from the mail of a russian terrorist

However, the russians were unhappy with such circumstances, so Baghdasarov demanded from Sachedina that his confidant in Mali, Victor Astrein, should meet with Ahmad – a representative of the IsmailisIn fact, Bagdasarov threatened his business partner / Screenshot from the mail of the russian terrorist

Translation from the document:

According to the latest information, received from our representative Viktor lately, your representative in Mali incorrectly uses the personal data against us. Taking into consideration the seriousness of the organization in russia that viktor represents in Mali, I'm afraid that this situation could worsen the relationship between your organization and us. Thus, out of my great respect for His Highness, the Shia Imam of the Ismaili Muslims, for you personally I wish for a successful cooperation in Africa, especially in Mali. Therefore, we are ready to discuss further cooperation. On this basis, I appeal to you, as my friend, that your representative, Mr. Ahmad, should contact our representative in Mali after the completion of the tender. Mr. Ahmad should know Victor's phone number.

It is still unknown for sure whether Russia was involved in these events, but in 2012, a few years after such dialogues and the deployment of Kremlin business, a military coup took place in Mali. Moreover, from that moment Mali finally plunged into the chaos of confrontations between various groups. Which are still supported by the mercenaries of the "Wagner" group.

Baghdasarov was engaged in similar activities in Jordan, Zimbabwe, Qatar, Syria, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, Libya and Lebanon, as well as in many other countries where Russia stuck its tentacles in order to gain geopolitical influence, as well as to enrich the Moscow elites through the sale of minerals.

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Andrew Beckwith, PhD