Russian diesel spike

Welcome to the weekend. I'm Phil Rosen. Today we're talking energy — and I'm sharing a conversation with a leading expert on Russian diesel flows.

As always, if you have any suggestions for who I should interview next, let me know in the comments.

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Matt Smith is lead oil analyst, Americas for Kpler. This conversation has been lightly edited for length and clarity.?

Phil Rosen: You shared some data on how Brazil is seeing a dramatic uptick in Russian diesel imports, and a decrease in diesel imports from other sources, including the US. What's going on here?

Matt Smith: Everything comes back to economics. We could try and read between the lines, but ultimately it comes down to price — it is seemingly cheaper for Brazil to pull in Russian diesel in recent months than it is to import barrels from the US.??

If it was just the odd cargo, it could be suggested that Brazil is the destination of last resort when Russia is unable to sell its diesel to anyone else, but the volumes delivered in the last three months suggest something more of a trend.?

It really does appear that Russian diesel is muscling in on US market share in Brazil.?

How does this data on Brazil's diesel imports fit into the broader picture with China and India??

MS: Different groups of countries have different agendas. While some countries such as India and China have ramped up imports of Russian crude, only to refine it and send it back in the form of refined products to countries that have applied sanctions on Russia, there are other countries such as Libya, Tunisia and Brazil that are making decisions based on economics.??

Russian diesel is displacing traditional suppliers to these countries, while trade flows are changing to backfill the loss of Russian diesel into Europe.?

It's a game of musical chairs, and one we've seen play out already with other Russian products such as fuel oil.

Read the full story from our conversation.?

What do you think of Smith's insights on the global energy landscape? Let me know.

And here are the top stories from markets this week:?

1. Morgan Stanley's chief investment officer said a credit crunch has already started. The repercussions of March's bank crisis are already making their way through the economy — and that's going to weigh on the stock market for the rest of the year.

2. Top economist Mohamed El-Erian is warning of a recession, Fed-triggered accidents, and a "moment of truth" for commercial real estate. In an interview with Insider, the Allianz chief economic advisor broke down his outlook for 2023 and how the economy could shift next.?

3. The rest of 2023 is the "best period" for stocks in a 12-month span. That's what Nationwide's Mark Hackett said — and he shared exactly what to buy to capitalize on the coming boom.

4. A real-estate investor with a 311-unit portfolio shared her strategy. This approach is "recession-proof" in Anne Curry's view. She broke down how she all but guarantees that she gets market-value rent payments.

5. Ray Dalio expects the financial system to undergo "big restructurings." Rising debt burdens aren't sustainable, the billionaire hedge fund founder said this week. The cycle we're in now is when "the tightening to fight inflation is causing a cracking in the financial markets."?

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