The Russian Angle: How Russia Benefits from the Israel-Hamas Conflict

The Israel-Hamas conflict, which has seen periodic flare-ups over the years, is a deeply complex and sensitive issue. While the primary focus often revolves around the dynamics between Israel and the Palestinian territories, there is another player on the global stage that stands to benefit from this ongoing turmoil - Russia. The cooperation of America’s new “axis of evil”, Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea, has never been closer. Seeking a shake-up in the international world order, Russia is desperate for a victory in Ukraine. The surprising competency of the Ukrainian Armed Forces against overwhelming odds is mostly credited to its strategic center of gravity; US and European material support. Therefore targeting its US and Western supply lines through geopolitical competition is extremely advantageous for Russia’s interests in Ukraine. While we don’t know the extent of coordination between Russia and Iran for this crisis, it undoubtedly can be viewed as a second front designed to lure support away from Ukraine and toward one of the US’s closest Allies, Israel.? In this blog post, we will explore the various ways in which Russia benefits from the Israel-Hamas conflict, both strategically and diplomatically.

Diverting International Attention and Brokerage: The Israel-Hamas conflict captures global headlines, drawing attention and resources from other pressing international issues. One of the most significant benefits for Russia is the diversion of global attention away from its actions in Ukraine, particularly in Eastern Ukraine and Crimea. By keeping the world's focus on the Middle East, Russia can operate in the shadows in Ukraine with less international scrutiny. Russia, through its state-controlled media and various spokespersons, takes a multifaceted approach to the Israel-Hamas conflict. On one hand, Russian leaders like President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov advocate for a balanced approach, highlighting civilian casualties on both sides and promoting a ceasefire. However, Russian politicians and commentators often adopt an anti-Israel stance, criticizing the West for its perceived double standards and portraying Israeli actions as directed not just against Hamas but against Muslims in general. This anti-Israeli rhetoric allows Russia to shape narratives that resonate with certain audiences in the Middle East, potentially undermining Western influence.

? Potential Diversion of Arms Supplies: As the conflict escalates, there are legitimate concerns that the United States and other Western nations might significantly divert arms supplies originally intended for Ukraine to Israel. This diversion of military aid can indirectly assist Russia, as it potentially weakens Ukraine's military capabilities. Russia's actions in Ukraine could indirectly benefit from this reshuffling of military resources. Since Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the ongoing conflict in Eastern Ukraine, Western countries, particularly the United States, have been providing military aid to Ukraine. This assistance includes weapons, equipment, and training to bolster Ukraine's defense capabilities. However, when conflicts like the Israel-Hamas situation intensify, there may be a reconsideration of where these military resources are most needed. For Ukraine, the moment they can no longer attack to regain their territorial integrity means Russia can successfully begin the integration process.? The potential diversion of arms supplies also has broader geopolitical implications. It highlights how Russia can exploit global crises to achieve its strategic objectives. By creating or capitalizing on conflicts that draw Western attention and resources, Russia can subtly advance its interests.

? Diplomatic Leverage and Geopolitical Gains: The Israel-Hamas conflict provides Russia with diplomatic leverage over Western nations. Russia can offer its services as a mediator or peace broker, which allows it to shape the dynamics of negotiations and discussions. This leverage can be wielded not only in the context of the Israel-Hamas conflict but also in other international issues where Russian interests are at play. Russia's involvement in the Middle East, particularly in Syria, has allowed it to reassert itself as a key player in the region. By positioning itself as a mediator or a diplomatic player in the Israel-Hamas conflict, Russia gains influence and prestige on the international stage. While it may not be a direct participant in the conflict, its involvement as a potential mediator enhances its geopolitical clout. Furthermore, the anti-Israeli rhetoric coming from Russia serves to undermine Western alliances and alliances, particularly with the United States. By highlighting perceived double standards in Western policy, Russia can sow seeds of discord and distrust among Western nations. This further fragments their unity and weakens their collective response to Russian actions in Ukraine.

? Broader Regional Implications: The Israel-Hamas conflict has the potential to escalate further, more actively involving groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran. This poses risks for Russia too, especially considering its multiple relationships in the region. Hezbollah's potential redeployment from Syria to Lebanon could complicate Moscow's position, and escalating conflicts involving Iranian forces and Israel may undermine Russian influence.? However, Russia maintains a naval base in Syria, specifically in the port of Tartus. The Israel-Hamas conflict's potential to escalate and involve other regional players, like Iran, could further justify Russia's military presence in the region. This military presence strengthens Russia's position and ability to project power beyond its immediate borders.

? While Russia does stand to benefit from the Israel-Hamas conflict in various ways, it is important to note that the situation is multifaceted. Moscow's involvement in Ukraine remains a primary focus, and it is unlikely to serve as a credible mediator in the Israel-Hamas conflict. Ultimately, the ongoing turmoil in the Middle East diverts international attention and resources away from Russia's actions in Ukraine, which is a significant strategic advantage for the Kremlin. However, the situation is dynamic, and the outcomes remain uncertain, with implications far beyond the Middle East. While Moscow may not be directly involved in the conflict, it deftly exploits the situation to further its interests both in the Middle East and on the global stage. The dynamics of this conflict are ever-evolving, and the extent of Russia's gains will depend on how the situation unfolds in the coming months and years.

?: The contents of this blog reflect the author's personal views and are not necessarily endorsed by the United States Army or the Department of Defense.