Russia and the West on Ukraine Crisis

As?the world is facing an unparallel crisis including lingering pandemic, surging inflation, supply chain disruption, empty shelves in stores, and now another new crisis hit the world politics – the Russian-Ukraine crisis. This is a step-by-step approach of Mr. Vladimir Putin culminating in media outburst, political maneuvering, and involvement of NATO and the West and forcing everyone on the discussion table. Even a serious discourse is ongoing regarding the initiation of destabilizing NATO countries – using one member against the other. The western media headlines are eye-catching,

More than 100,000 Russian troops have massed at the border with Ukraine, prompting Biden to tell Zelenskiy on Thursday there was “a distinct possibility that the Russians could invade Ukraine in February”.

The Pentagon has already placed about 8,500 US troops on standby for possible deployment to Europe amid Russia’s military build-up near Ukraine’s border.

Amid tension with Russia, the United States sent 90 tons of weapons to Ukraine.

In response to the NATO and US comments, the Russian leader said Moscow’s concerns about the expansion of NATO and the deployment of strike weapons near its borders had not been taken into account, according to a Kremlin readout of the phone call with his French counterpart last week.

Macron told Putin that Russia had to respect the sovereignty of states, according to the élysée. Putin agreed to continue talks, so there was a feeling that “things have moved”, a French presidency official said.

Putin’s Political Goals

President Putin’s political maneuvering started with the old wound, harking back to the former Soviet-era status has turned out to be an important issue in the mix. The Russians could not accept the loss of their pride, the unexpected loss of their status as one of the superpowers in the 1990s, which created enormous discomfort among the Russians. The game of Mr. Gorbachev and Mr. Yeltsin has created an ambivalence among the considerable proportion of ordinary people–the Russian voters.??These are Russians, their patriotism saved them from eradication from the face of the earth and stood strong even after losing over 27 million Russians in WWII. Russians saw the game played against them by the West during WWII and thereafter - during the cold war era. The Russians steadfastly approve of any leadership, who can stand boldly against the West, and challenge them by putting the nation on the track to claims its greatness and reclaim its status as a superpower.??The war in Yugoslavia, the Russo-Georgian War, the annex of Crimea, and boldly playing the trump card against the West in Syria, in addition, in 2021 Russian support helped Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko to survive the Western sanctions. Russian power grew from the Caucasus to the Balkans, and a late-year Russian troop buildup east of Ukraine put Moscow’s revisionist agenda at the center of world politics.??All these victorious wars put Putin on a solid political platform and more interestingly the Russians interpreting, we agree or not, all these wars and conflicts between Russia and the West led by the United States.

President?Putin’s Demands

After amassing heavy troops and armaments in Ukraine border at a striking distance, which unnerving the West with much discomfort, President Putin put a draft proposal in December 2021 to the US and NATO.??All his demands highlighted Russia’s security interest and believe that Russia’s interest was compromised by the West and NATO.??Although many of these ultimatums have been slammed as non-starters by the West, nobody is in their comfort zone. Although the proposal of Russia and responses from the west (US and NATO) was not published, much talk about issues is highlighted below for a better understanding.

A. Russia wants a guarantee that Ukraine will never be admitted to NATO

This is Russia's main demand, a commitment from NATO to end its further expansion into Ukraine. Russia demands to rescind?NATO’s 2008 promise that Ukraine could someday join this defense alliance. They want ironclad, waterproof, bulletproof, legally binding guarantees, not just assurances from the West.

The West argues that NATO maintains its long-standing "open door policy" for potential membership and all countries have a right to choose their alliances.??In this case, it is Ukraine’s sovereign choice to choose its defense alliance.

B. Russia wants NATO arms out of Eastern Europe

Russia further demands a ban on NATO from deploying its military powers in Central and Eastern European countries, which joined the alliance after 1997. The list of these NATO countries includes Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Slovenia, Croatia, Montenegro, Albania, North Macedonia, and Bulgaria. They geographically are located around Russia and will serve as a buffer to protect Russia from any type of foreign invasion.??President Putin sees that the West is violating the resolution of the Yalta Conference regarding Russia’s security.

U.S. officials have made it clear that it is unrealistic and can not be met. Meeting this demand would mean redrawing a new map of Europe by placing Moscow's security demands above the concerns of whole swaths of European countries.?

C. Russia wants a ban on NATO missiles within striking distance, one of the most controversial issues even in the US Congress

Russia demands reinstating the Cold War-ear treaty, the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, which was abandoned by the Trump Administration in 2019. They demand a ban on intermediate-range missiles in Europe.??President Putin argued that Russia is not putting its rockets near the borders of the United States.??He further argued,??"It's the U.S. with its rockets coming to our doorstep." Russia's president has made it no secret that he envisions a day in the not-so-distant future when NATO missiles could be housed on Ukrainian soil’ –??minutes' striking distance from Moscow. "For us, this is a serious challenge — a challenge to our national security," Putin said.

Some western opinion is that this could be an area of compromise. Please note that some Democratic lawmakers opposed the Trump Administration's decision to abandon the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty with Russia.

D. Russia wants autonomy for eastern Ukraine – Enforcement of Minsk Agreement

Russia emphasized the enforcement of the Minsk Agreement of 2015, which was hailed by the US as a way toward de-escalation to end the fighting between Ukraine's army and Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine. It also included a greater autonomy for eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region, where the majority populations are Russian speakers.??Ukraine ignored this agreement and killed many Russian speakers on weekly basis.

The U.S. supports the Minsk Agreements but also claims that Moscow also has failed to meet its obligations.

How President Putin is?solidifying?his political agenda - Reflection of WWII in Russian Mind

Using the pain of Russians to garner support from the general mass, as World War II (WWII) put them on the world stage and dwindled their power after the breakdown of the Soviet Union in 1991.

World War II directly involved more than 100 million personnel from more than 30 countries, the major participants threw their entire economic, industrial, and scientific capabilities behind the war effort, blurring the distinction between civilian and military resources.??About 60 million people died in the war, including Soviet fatality alone was about 27 million.??Although the Soviets and Germany had a pre-war non-aggression treaty and that was violated and many Russian believes that the UK Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain played a decisive role in provoking Hitler to attack the Soviet Union.

But German invasion of the Soviet Union during WWII forced the Soviets to hit back and it took a competitive edge in the war. In addition to its territory, the Soviet Red Army fought hard and liberated many of the Eastern European countries. At the last edge of WW II, when the war on the European front was mostly decided, the big three, the United States headed by President Frank D Roosevelt, Britain headed by Prime Minister Winston Churchill and the Soviet headed by the Secretary-General Joseph Stalin met in Yalta in February 1945 to discuss the post-war reconstruction of Europe.??By this time the Red Army was unstoppable and occupied most of the eastern part of Germany. In this conference, Stalin put together a plan and pressed to create buffer zones comprising of friendly states around Russia so that no future invasion can take place against the Soviet Union. The conference immediately felt the goal of Stalin and to make a face-saving effort the Conference agreed that Eastern Europe could be in the Soviet sphere of influence. The rise of the Soviet influence thus began, and as a strong military power, they did not hesitate to swing the Eastern European countries under its influence. Till the breakdown of the Soviet Union in 1991, Eastern Europe was under their influence and it was marked as the security of Soviet interest, putting any type of foreign aggression/invasion at the bay.

RUSSIA – UKRAINE CRISIS AND MOSCOW’S MOVE

To understand it, it is important to revisit some of the lifelines on how Russia is solidifying its ground to reclaim its superpower status and how it is reshaping both domestic and foreign policies.

Military Might – Agility to Deploy

Russia is a nuclear power with the ability to show its muscles to any power to the world community. It reaches European countries in a day, making all the European countries much more vulnerable.??The aim of creating NATO was created as a defense platform among the European countries and the USA to safeguard Europe from the aggression of the communist??Soviet Union. It has another aim as well, which is a very powerful tool – joint sanction and trade embargoes jointly against any country. According to Statista, a German Company specializing in market and consumer data, Russia spent about $62 billion in 2020, which is second only to the USA.??Russia has continuously maintained its image as a militarily advanced state with the ability to protect its interests both at home and abroad. Their ability to deploy war machines on short notice, as was seen during the Syrian crisis has gradually been unnerving the western-led coalition, that was propping up forces against the Assad regime.??As with the invasion of Crimea, Russian President Vladimir Putin demonstrated to the world Russia’s ability to advance personal goals by exercising military might.??The hostile invasion of Ukraine was a signal to the Western world that Russia will not be pressured by international condemnation or sanctions while protecting its interests. Following the events in Ukraine, Putin’s popularity picked up for his courage in boosting patriotism for the motherland.

Energy As Weapon: Russia’s Energy Role in Europe

Russia is the world’s third-largest producer of oil and the second-largest producer of natural gas.??By some estimates, fossil fuels account for 14 percent of the nation’s economic output. Revenue from energy export is responsible for more than 40 percent of its budget.

Russia’s gas reserves far exceed those of any other country. With about 32 percent of proven world reserves, Russia far outranks Iran (15%), Qatar (7$), Saudi Arabia (4%), the UAE (3%), the United States (5%), and Algeria (2%). Much of Russia’s energy output goes to satisfying European demand, especially natural gas sent over a network of Soviet-era pipelines crisscrossing Ukraine and other Eastern European countries. Overall, Russia supplies about one-third of European natural gas consumption.??The European Union (EU) also turns to Russia for more than one-quarter of its crude oil imports.??The Kremlin depends on revenue from Europe, while Europe depends on Russian energy. Germany gets more than half of its natural gas and more than 30 percent of its crude oil supplies from Russia. France also relies on Russian imports to meet its fossil fuel demands. Based on the public perceptions due to several accidents, many European countries are phasing out from nuclear and coal feed power definitely will increase their dependence on Russia.??But many analysts say Europe’s reliance means that imposing tougher sanctions on Russia might put a serious dent in its energy situation.??For many observers, these dangers were amplified again in late 2021, as Russia held back from delivering additional gas supplies amid a spike in energy demand. The result was a tripling of prices and threats of shortages across Europe.

Europe has about one month’s worth of “cushion gas,” or the minimum gas typically required to be kept in storage, which it could draw on in an emergency.??Therefore, there is a significant concern about major supply disruptions in the case of Russian-West conflicts on the possible invasion of Ukraine. The real challenge is how to keep Europe supplied with fuel while also punishing Russia. If Putin responds with gas cutoffs, that could spike energy prices further, drive inflation, and undermine Europe’s economic recovery.

A full-fledged war between Russia and Ukraine, therefore, will have significant ramifications for the whole of Europe, Russia, and Ukraine. Given the dependence of fossil fuel on Russia will put the European countries in discomfort, especially on the economy. EU nations might find alternative sources for their fossil fuel demands, but they will be time-consuming and very expensive. Many think that Russia will also suffer from foreign currency due to the cut-off of fossil fuel in EU countries,??but they have another partner China, the largest consumer of fossil fuels in the world. Keeping this in mind, the two countries declared a constructive partnership and in 2001, they signed a treaty of "friendship and cooperation.

Conclusion

Viewing all these facts, it is necessary to deescalate the Russia-Ukraine conflicts, otherwise, Ukraine will be the most sufferer and at the last end, no one might come to help them at the cost of their economic demise.

President Biden is reviewing every corner to deescalate this crisis, but vultures are there who are constantly looking for a conflict.