Russia-Ukraine war update: Putin orders Reservist Mobilisation
Intelligence Fusion
Delivering actionable threat intelligence to businesses, worldwide, to help protect your people, assets and operations.
Written by Matt Pratten
Reporting over the last 24 hours has featured numerous major developments in the Russia-Ukraine war, displayed in Figure 1 below:
Figure 1: Incidents relating to mobilisation and referendums in Russia and Ukraine [source: Intelligence Fusion]
COMMENT. The mobilisation comes in the wake of Ukrainian forces recapturing territories in Kharkiv and Kherson Oblasts. The speed of their success saw Russian forces abandon their positions - leaving significant amounts of weaponry - and expose more evidence of Russian war crimes. Ukrainian progress appears to now threaten Russia’s ability to link the Donbass region with Crimea and even threaten Russia’s hold on the Donbass regions Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts.?
The upcoming referendums will undoubtedly see votes for Zaporizhia, Kherson, Donetsk and Luhansk to become part of the Russian Federation. With this supposed cessation, it will provide a form of justification for President Putin to claim that Russian territory is under attack by Ukraine and needs to be defended. The mobilisation of reservists can provide initial reinforcements while claims of Russian territory being attacked can enable full mobilisation of the Russian population at a later stage.
However, despite these moves, there is little appetite amongst Russians to go and fight in Ukraine. Russian forces have sustained significant casualties at the hands of Ukrainian forces. Additionally, following the invasion on 24th February 2022, large protests? occurred in Moscow, St Petersburg and other cities in Russia. These occurred despite protests being effectively banned in Russia and a well-established certainty that police will arrest anyone who even appears to be protesting and resort to force against large crowds regardless of conduct. While no details on protests in Moscow and St Petersburg have been found as yet, such information will be better concealed until the last safe moment in order to prevent police from pre-positioning to prevent any demonstrations. COMMENT ENDS.
Figure 2: Potential planned protests by anti-war 'Vesna' movement in Russia [source: Intelligence Fusion]
领英推荐
ASSESSMENT
The upcoming referendums in Donbass and Southern Ukraine are probably intended to provide a form of justification for Russia to claim its territory is being invaded, with the mobilisation of reserves intended to be a means to prevent further gains being made by Ukrainian forces in the short term. As the fighting continues, President Putin will likely call for further mobilisation - up to and including total mobilisation - on the basis that Russian territory is being attacked.
Even though the mobilisation focuses on reserves, the recent mobilisation will likely see protests occur across Russia; with large crowds expected in Moscow and St Petersburg. These protests will probably see significant police presence and mass arrests. Given the significance of President Putin’s announcement, unrest/rioting is possible.
-
UPDATE
22nd September 2022: Protests have been reported in multiple cities, with over 1300 protesters arrested so far. There are additional reports that arrested protesters are being issued with summons of being enlisted into the military.
Figure 3: Anti-mobilisation protests reported in Russia, 21st September 2022 [source: Intelligence Fusion]
-
This update was put together using the Intelligence Fusion threat intelligence platform.
To see more of the data that supports our analysis, request some time with a member of our team here.
Update: Protests have been reported in multiple cities, with over 1300 protesters arrested so far. There are additional reports that arrested protesters are being issued with summons of being enlisted into the military.