Russia-Ukraine Conflict and the Global Order: A Precursor to World War III?

Introduction

The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine has reshaped global geopolitics, pushing the world into a state of heightened tension. After multiple failed diplomatic efforts, including negotiations between former U.S. President Donald J. Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, the conflict has continued to escalate. The European Union, predominantly supporting Ukraine, has reinforced its military and economic backing against Russia, further deepening divisions.

This article examines the implications of the failed U.S.-led negotiations, the potential onset of a third world war as claimed by the U.S. leadership, and whether a new world order is emerging.

Failed Trump-Zelensky Negotiations: A Missed Opportunity?

During his presidency, Donald Trump took a non-traditional approach to foreign policy, emphasizing direct negotiations, economic leverage, and at times, unpredictability. While Trump had previously engaged in diplomacy with North Korea and Russia, his approach to Ukraine was less direct.

If negotiations between Trump and Zelensky had indeed failed, it would suggest that diplomatic channels had exhausted their effectiveness, pushing Ukraine and its Western allies toward continued military escalation. This failure may have reinforced Ukraine’s reliance on NATO and the EU, further straining relations between Russia and the West.

European Union's Role: Stronger Support for Ukraine

The European Union has played a critical role in the Russia-Ukraine war, providing military aid, financial support, and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine. Countries like Germany, France, and Poland have significantly increased their defence spending, while the United Kingdom, although not in the EU, has taken an aggressive stance in supporting Ukraine militarily.

With the U.S. showing signs of internal division regarding its support for Ukraine—especially under Trump’s “America First” policy—the EU has had to take a leadership role. This shift indicates a more independent European security strategy, potentially reducing long-term reliance on U.S. military intervention.

Is This the Beginning of World War III?

U.S. officials, including current and former presidents, have warned that the Russia-Ukraine war could escalate into a global conflict. But is this truly the beginning of World War III?

Several factors indicate that while the conflict is severe, a full-scale world war remains unlikely:

1. Nuclear Deterrence – Both NATO and Russia understand the catastrophic consequences of a nuclear war, making direct military confrontation unlikely.
2. Economic Interdependence – Despite sanctions, Russia still maintains economic ties with China, India, and other nations, preventing complete global polarization.
3. Regional Conflicts vs. Global War – While other global tensions exist (e.g., Taiwan, Middle East), they have not yet merged into a single, large-scale conflict.

However, if the war extends into NATO territory, escalations between Russia and Western allies could push the world closer to a large-scale military confrontation.

A New World Order in the Making?

The Russia-Ukraine war has highlighted significant shifts in global power dynamics, suggesting the emergence of a new world order:

• Multipolarity: The U.S. no longer holds uncontested global dominance. China, Russia, and regional powers like India are asserting greater influence.
• Declining Western Hegemony: The EU and NATO are growing stronger militarily, but economic and political divisions in the West raise questions about long-term stability.
• Strengthened Russia-China Ties: As Western sanctions isolate Russia, its economic and military alliances with China and other non-Western nations grow stronger.

If these trends continue, the world may move away from a U.S.-led unipolar system to a multipolar structure, where different blocs compete for influence.

Conclusion

The Russia-Ukraine war remains a major geopolitical crisis, with the potential for further escalation. While the failure of Trump-Zelensky negotiations may have closed one diplomatic avenue, the conflict continues to be shaped by European and NATO support for Ukraine.

Though a third world war is not yet inevitable, the shifting global order suggests a new era of international politics—one where the West, Russia, and emerging powers like China are redefining global influence. The coming years will determine whether the world can find diplomatic solutions or slide further toward large-scale conflict.

Arbind Kr Singh

Managing Director

Career Strategists IAS

www.careerstrategistsias.com