Russia suspected of providing Houthis with targeting data - Moldova's President Sandu wins second term
Reports suggest Russia provided targeting data to Houthis to facilitate their attacks in the Red Sea?
Russia has reportedly provided targeting data to the Houthis, who used this data to attack Western ships in the Red Sea. The assistance, involving satellite data, was provided to members of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) embedded with the Houthis. One reason behind this aid could be that Russian oil shipments, carried by a ‘ghost fleet’ to evade sanctions, have also been hit by the Houthis, and more precise targeting data would help to avoid this. The Houthis have also been seeking greater ‘operational autonomy’ and diversifying their alliances beyond their traditional ties with Iran, including by establishing relations with al-Shabaab in Somalia, but also cooperating with Russia.??
Russia has historically followed the concept of asymmetrical response and is likely considering aiding the Houthis a legitimate response to Western aid to Ukraine. In June 2024, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin warned that Russia could take ‘asymmetrical’ steps to respond, saying that the country was considering supplying weapons to regions of the world where they could be used to strike Western targets. The attacks by the Houthis have led to a significant reduction in oil tanker traffic through the Red Sea, a vital oil transit route, while adding costs to energy exports to Europe. According to some analysts, the attacks have had at least two strategic benefits for Russia; forcing Western countries to stretch their resources over multiple theatres of action and hindering European efforts of replacing Russian energy with imports from the Persian Gulf.??
While Russia's engagement with the Houthis is likely part of the country’s broader strategy of using regional conflicts against Western interests, one of the ‘side effects’ of the escalating conflict in the Middle East appears to be a shift in Russia's foreign policy. Russia’s alliances with autocratic regimes, such as Iran and North Korea, have strengthened in the context of the war in Ukraine and Russia's deepening military cooperation with Iran has led to the country increasingly distancing itself from its long-standing relationship with Israel. Iran has also been supporting Russia's war efforts in Ukraine, most notably by delivering hundreds of attack drones and, more recently, ballistic missiles, while Russia has allegedly been helping Iran with their nuclear programme.??
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Moldova’s incumbent president Sandu wins second term??
Moldova's incumbent, pro-Western President Maia Sandu won a second term in office in the second round of the country’s presidential election on November 3rd, 2024. According to preliminary results, Sandu claimed victory with 55% of the vote, compared to 45% for Alexandr Stoianoglo, a former prosecutor general who was backed by the pro-Russia Party of Socialists. Sandu also won the first round of the vote with 42.4%, ahead of Stoianoglo’s 26%, but short of the 50% of the vote needed to win outright. In a late-night speech following the announcement of her victory, Sandu called for unity and pledged to serve all citizens, regardless of their political affiliation. Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, congratulated Sandu on her re-election and the country’s ‘European future.’?
The election was overshadowed by claims of Russian interference, vote-buying, intimidation, and cyberattacks. On the day of the election, the Moldovan police claimed to have evidence of organised transportation of voters to polling stations from within the country and from overseas, including organised flights from Russia. Polling stations in countries like Germany and the United Kingdom also reportedly received hoax bomb threats in an effort to deter voters. Russia has rejected accusations of interference and Russian officials have instead accused the European Union of rigging the election via votes in EU countries, with early results indicating that the Moldovan diaspora, accounting for about 20% of the electorate, had overwhelmingly voted for Sandu.??
The election was widely seen a choice between alignment with Europe and a closer relationship with Russia. Although the result is a significant boost for Sandu’s EU agenda, she faces considerable challenges in her second term. Moldova remains one of Europe's poorest countries and is struggling with economic instability, corruption, and a fragile political system. For decades, the country has oscillated between pro-Russian and pro-European courses. Russian media and pro-Russian politicians have a significant following in Moldova and some regions, particularly the breakaway Transnistria, remain heavily influenced by Russia. However, since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the country has accelerated its push of escaping the orbit of Russia and joining the EU. Nevertheless, many of Sandu's reforms are in their early stages and she must balance the aspirations of closer integration with the EU with the realities of Moldova's economic and geopolitical constraints, including the country’s heavy dependence on Russian energy.???
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