Russia said it will offer free grain to its purported allies in Africa. Why this will not work. And of course the rest of East and South Asia at risk
quote
By halting a landmark deal that allowed Ukrainian grain exports via the Black Sea, Putin has taken a risky gamble that could badly damage Moscow's relations with many of its partners that have remained neutral or even supportive of the Kremlin amid the war in Ukraine. Russia has also played spoiler at the United Nations, vetoing a resolution on extending humanitarian aid deliveries via a key crossing point in northwestern Syria and backing Mali's push to expel the U.N. peacekeepers. Putin's decision to spike the deal could backfire against Russia's own interests, straining Moscow's relations with key partner Turkey and hurting its ties with African countries. (Pavel Bednyakov/Photo host Agency RIA Novosti via AP, File)
??Provided by The Associated Press
By?pulling out of a landmark deal ?that allowed Ukrainian grain exports through the Black Sea, Russian President Vladimir Putin is taking a gamble that could badly damage Moscow’s relations with many of its partners that have stayed neutral or even been supportive of the Kremlin's invasion of its neighbor.
Russia also has played the role of spoiler at the United Nations, vetoing a resolution on?extending humanitarian aid deliveries ?through a key border crossing in northwestern Syria and backing a push by Mali's military junta?to expel U.N. peacekeepers ?— abrupt moves that reflect Moscow’s readiness to raise the stakes elsewhere.
end of quote
The reason why offering free grain from Russia is not going to get traction is because geo politically the moves done in this era of shortage are transactional and not substitutes as to how Russia has mined an area the size of the state of Florida with millions of mines which will imperil agricultural trade and more for the next 100 or so years
quote
With an immense arsenal of mines at their disposal, the Russians have landmined Ukrainian territory at an unprecedented rate, making it one of the largest minefields in the world. It's estimated that approximately 170,000 square kilometers are now covered with anti-tank or anti-personnel landmines, which is about the size of Florida, or almost six times the surface area of Belgium. However, not all of them were laid by the Russians. "The Ukrainians [also] laid a lot of them before the war, especially in the Donbas," an area where the two warring parties have been fighting since 2014, said a source from the French military.
Laid along Russian fortified lines, this network of mines is the dread of Ukrainian tanks, particularly those participating in the offensive going on since the beginning of June in the south of the country. A number of videos posted on Russian social media show Leopard 2 and Bradley infantry fighting tanks immobilized in the middle of fields, their tracks scattered all around them, a sign that they landed on mines.
end of quote
The area of Ukraine the size of Florida mined by Russia in ukraine is the ultimate counter to the would be offer of "free wheat" for Africa, by Lavrov
All the moves are tranactional and this is being noted world wide
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/by-pulling-out-of-the-ukrainian-grain-deal-russia-risks-alienating-its-few-remaining-partners/ar-AA1e9ySx
quote
By pulling out of the Ukrainian grain deal, Russia risks alienating its few remaining partners
Friday
FILE - In this handout photo provided by Photo host Agency RIA Novosti, Russian President Vladimir Putin, at left, attends a meeting with a delegation of African leaders and senior officials in St. Petersburg, Russia, Saturday, June 17, 2023. By halting a landmark deal that allowed Ukrainian grain exports via the Black Sea, Putin has taken a risky gamble that could badly damage Moscow's relations with many of its partners that have remained neutral or even supportive of the Kremlin amid the war in Ukraine. Russia has also played spoiler at the United Nations, vetoing a resolution on extending humanitarian aid deliveries via a key crossing point in northwestern Syria and backing Mali's push to expel the U.N. peacekeepers. Putin's decision to spike the deal could backfire against Russia's own interests, straining Moscow's relations with key partner Turkey and hurting its ties with African countries. (Pavel Bednyakov/Photo host Agency RIA Novosti via AP, File)
??Provided by The Associated Press
B
y?pulling out of a landmark deal ?that allowed Ukrainian grain exports through the Black Sea, Russian President Vladimir Putin is taking a gamble that could badly damage Moscow’s relations with many of its partners that have stayed neutral or even been supportive of the Kremlin's invasion of its neighbor.
Russia also has played the role of spoiler at the United Nations, vetoing a resolution on?extending humanitarian aid deliveries ?through a key border crossing in northwestern Syria and backing a push by Mali's military junta?to expel U.N. peacekeepers ?— abrupt moves that reflect Moscow’s readiness to raise the stakes elsewhere.
FILE - Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, shakes hands with Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan prior to their talks on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, Friday, Sept. 16, 2022. By halting a landmark deal that allowed Ukrainian grain exports via the Black Sea, Putin has taken a risky gamble that could badly damage Moscow's relations with many of its partners that have remained neutral or even supportive of the Kremlin amid the war in Ukraine. Russia has also played spoiler at the United Nations, vetoing a resolution on extending humanitarian aid deliveries via a key crossing point in northwestern Syria and backing Mali's push to expel the U.N. peacekeepers. Putin's decision to spike the deal could backfire against Russia's own interests, straining Moscow's relations with key partner Turkey and hurting its ties with African countries. (Alexandr Demyanchuk, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP, File)
??Provided by The Associated Press
Putin’s declared goal in halting the Black Sea Grain Initiative was to win relief from Western sanctions on Russia’s agricultural exports. His longer-term goal could be to erode Western resolve over Ukraine and get more concessions from the U.S. and its allies as the war grinds toward the 17-month mark.
FILE - A worker cleans grain after trucks unloaded in a grain elevator in Melitopol, south Ukraine, Thursday, July 14, 2022. By halting a landmark deal that allowed Ukrainian grain exports via the Black Sea, Russian President Vladimir Putin has taken a risky gamble that could badly damage Moscow's relations with many of its partners that have remained neutral or even supportive of the Kremlin amid the war in Ukraine. Russia has also played spoiler at the United Nations, vetoing a resolution on extending humanitarian aid deliveries via a key crossing point in northwestern Syria and backing Mali's push to expel the U.N. peacekeepers. Putin's decision to spike the deal could backfire against Russia's own interests, straining Moscow's relations with key partner Turkey and hurting its ties with African countries. (AP Photo, File)
??Provided by The Associated Press
The Kremlin doubled down on terminating the grain deal by?attacking Ukrainian ports ?and declaring wide areas of the Black Sea unsafe for shipping.
But with the West showing little willingness to yield any ground, Putin’s actions not only threaten global food security but also could backfire against Russia’s own interests, potentially causing concern in China, straining Moscow’s relations with key partner Turkey and hurting its ties with African countries.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who helped broker the grain deal with the U.N. a year ago, has pushed for its extension and said he would negotiate with Putin.
Turkey’s role as a top trading partner and a logistical hub for Russia’s foreign trade amid Western sanctions strengthens Erdogan’s hand and could allow him to squeeze concessions from Putin, whom he calls “my dear friend.”
Turkey’s trade with Russia nearly doubled last year to $68.2 billion, feeding U.S. suspicions that Moscow is using Ankara to bypass Western sanctions. Turkey says the increase is largely due to higher energy costs.
Their relationship is often characterized as transactional. Despite being on opposing sides in fighting in Syria, Libya and the decades-long conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, they have cooperated in areas like energy, defense, diplomacy, tourism and trade.
Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, director of the German Marshall Fund in Ankara, said the relationship’s dual nature dates back to the sultans and czars.
“Sometimes they compete, sometimes they cooperate. At other times they both compete and cooperate at the same time,” he said.
While the pendulum seems to have swung in Ankara's favor for now, Unluhisarcikli noted the Kremlin has a few levers to pull, such as canceling a deferment of gas payments or removing financial capital for the Akkuyu nuclear plant being built by Russia. Moscow also could hurt Turkey by restricting Russian tourists, who visit in greater numbers than any other nationality. offering a steady flow of cash.
FILE - Men bag grain to sell at Dawanau International Market in Kano Nigeria, Friday, July 14, 2023. By halting a landmark deal that allowed Ukrainian grain exports via the Black Sea, Russian President Vladimir Putin has taken a risky gamble that could badly damage Moscow's relations with many of its partners that have remained neutral or even supportive of the Kremlin amid the war in Ukraine. Russia has also played spoiler at the United Nations, vetoing a resolution on extending humanitarian aid deliveries via a key crossing point in northwestern Syria and backing Mali's push to expel the U.N. peacekeepers. Putin's decision to spike the deal could backfire against Russia's own interests, straining Moscow's relations with key partner Turkey and hurting its ties with African countries. (AP Photo/Sunday Alamba, File)
??Provided by The Associated Press
“How much weaker the relationship gets depends on how Russia responds to Turkey getting closer to the West,” he said.
Some observers in Moscow speculate that Russia agreed to extend the grain deal for two months in May to help?Erdogan win reelection ?but was appalled to see his pro-Western shift afterward.
FILE - Bulk grain cargo ship TQ Samsun is anchored in the Black Sea near the entrance of the Bosphorus Strait in Istanbul, Turkey, Monday, July 17, 2023. By halting a landmark deal that allowed Ukrainian grain exports via the Black Sea, Russian President Vladimir Putin has taken a risky gamble that could badly damage Moscow's relations with many of its partners that have remained neutral or even supportive of the Kremlin amid the war in Ukraine. Russia has also played spoiler at the United Nations, vetoing a resolution on extending humanitarian aid deliveries via a key crossing point in northwestern Syria and backing Mali's push to expel the U.N. peacekeepers. Putin's decision to spike the deal could backfire against Russia's own interests, straining Moscow's relations with key partner Turkey and hurting its ties with African countries. (Sercan Ozkurnazli/Dia Images via AP, File)
领英推荐
??Provided by The Associated Press
Erdogan backed Sweden’s membership in NATO earlier this month. In another snub to Moscow, Turkey allowed several Ukrainian commanders who led the defense of Mariupol last year to return home. They surrendered after a two-month Russian siege and then moved to Turkey under a deal that they stay there until the end of the war.
Related video:?End of Black Sea grain deal: Alternative routes will be 'very costly' for Ukraine, analyst says?(CNBC)
All right. So let's talk about options.
Play Video
CNBC
End of Black Sea grain deal: Alternative routes will be 'very costly' for Ukraine, analyst says
Kerim Has, a Moscow-based expert on Turkey-Russia ties, said Erdogan had been emboldened by his reelection to pursue rapprochement with the West, appointing a “pro-Western” Cabinet and adopting a stance that was causing “discomfort” in the Kremlin.
“It’s a dilemma for Putin,” Has said. “He supported Erdogan’s candidacy but he will face a more active, pro-Western Turkey under Erdogan in the coming period.”
Moscow could try to pressure Erdogan by challenging Turkey’s interests in northwestern Syria, where Ankara has backed armed opposition groups since the start of the conflict. Even though Russia has joined with Iran to shore up Syrian President Bashar Assad’s government while Turkey has backed its foes, Moscow and Ankara have negotiated cease-fire deals.
But Russia abruptly toughened its stand this month when it vetoed a U.N. Security Council resolution backed by virtually all members to continue humanitarian aid deliveries to opposition-held areas through the Bab el-Hawa border crossing with Turkey, a key lifeline for about 4.1 million people in the impoverished enclave. Moscow warned that if its rival draft was not accepted, the crossing would be shut.
The presence of 3.4 million Syrians in Turkey is a sensitive issue for Ankara. Erdogan has advocated their voluntary repatriation to parts of northern Syria under Turkish control.
Dareen Khalifa, senior analyst on Syria at the International Crisis Group, says Russia’s hard-line approach to the issue was an attempt to pressure Ankara.
“Turkey will be directly impacted by that if the mechanism ends,” he said.
Others were skeptical Russia could use the border crossing issue to strong-arm Ankara. “I do not think Russia is in a position to increase its pressure on Turkey in Syria,” Has said.
Joseph Daher, a Swiss-Syrian researcher and professor at the European University Institute in Florence, Italy, observed that Russia could be trying to pressure the West by raising the prospect of a new wave of refugees in Europe.
Richard Gowan, U.N. director of the International Crisis Group, noted that along with the tougher stand on Syria, Russia’s “disruptive” actions included support for Mali’s push to expel U.N. peacekeepers.
“It looks like Russia is looking for ways to annoy the West through the U.N,” he told The Associated Press.
Reflecting Moscow’s increasingly muscular stand, Russian military pilots recently have?harassed U.S. aircraft ?over Syria in incidents that added to tensions between Moscow and Washington. The Pentagon described Russia's maneuvers?as unprofessional and unsafe , while Moscow sought to turn the tables by accusing the U.S. of violating deconfliction rules intended to prevent collisions over Syria.
Amid the hardball at the U.N. and in Syria, Russia has been courting African nations with promises of support.
The Kremlin has emphasized it stands ready to provide poor countries in Africa with free grain after the termination of the Black Sea deal, and Putin is set to woo African leaders at a summit in St. Petersburg later this month. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Moscow’s offer of free grain shipments would be on the agenda.
The Black Sea deal allowed Ukraine to ship 32.9 million metric tons of grain and other food to global markets. According to official data, 57% of the grain from Ukraine went to developing nations, while China received the most — nearly a quarter.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy noted that 60,000 metric tons of grain destroyed by Russia's strike on the port of Odesa on Wednesday were bound for China.
Putin, in turn, accused the West of using the grain deal to “shamelessly enrich itself” instead of its declared goal of easing hunger. Despite such rhetoric, the Russian move won't play well in African countries.
Even as the Kremlin tried to contain the damage to those ties, it unleashed more attacks on Odesa and other ports to thwart Ukrainian attempts to continue grain shipments. Moscow described them as "?strikes of retribution ?" for Monday's attack that damaged the Kerch Bridge linking Moscow-annexed Crimea with Russia.
Hard-liners in Moscow praised Putin for halting the deal, which they have criticized as a reflection of what they described as the Kremlin's futile hope to compromise with the West.
Pro-Kremlin commentator Sergei Markov lauded the retaliatory strikes and argued that the withdrawal from the deal was long overdue.
“The grain deal's extension led to a drop in the government’s ratings and was fueling talk about betrayal on top,” he said.
___
Andrew Wilks in Istanbul, Turkey, Kareem Chehayeb in Beirut, Lebanon and Edith M. Lederer at the United Nations contributed.
___
Follow AP's coverage of the war in Ukraine at?https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine
end of quote
also
quote
You can share an article by clicking on the share icons at the top right of it.
The total or partial reproduction of an article, without the prior written authorization of Le Monde , is strictly forbidden.
For more information, see our Terms and Conditions .
For all authorization requests, contact [email protected] .
With an immense arsenal of mines at their disposal, the Russians have landmined Ukrainian territory at an unprecedented rate, making it one of the largest minefields in the world. It's estimated that approximately 170,000 square kilometers are now covered with anti-tank or anti-personnel landmines, which is about the size of Florida, or almost six times the surface area of Belgium. However, not all of them were laid by the Russians. "The Ukrainians [also] laid a lot of them before the war, especially in the Donbas," an area where the two warring parties have been fighting since 2014, said a source from the French military.
Laid along Russian fortified lines, this network of mines is the dread of Ukrainian tanks, particularly those participating in the offensive going on since the beginning of June in the south of the country. A number of videos posted on Russian social media show Leopard 2 and Bradley infantry fighting tanks immobilized in the middle of fields, their tracks scattered all around them, a sign that they landed on mines.
end of quote
Andrew Beckwith, PhD