Russia: natural gas supplies reduced at the Sudzha Compressor Station

On 19th January 2023, Gazprom announced that natural gas supplies at the Sudzha Compressor Station in Kursk Oblast have been reduced by 23%, citing problems with gas operators in Ukraine. This incident comes during a period where several countries are pledging further military support for Ukraine, and warnings are being issued by the Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitri Peskov about the potential for escalation additional support creates. This supply cut also came as weather conditions across parts of Europe were particularly cold; conditions which naturally require consumption of natural gas for heating.

COMMENT. The Sudzha Compressor station is a part of a natural gas transmission line which supplies natural gas directly to Europe via Ukraine. As it stands, both Nord Stream pipelines have been destroyed and supplies via the Yamal pipeline from Russia remain cut. The line which Sudzha is connected to is the last functioning direct line to Europe. While this is the last remaining line, incidents across Europe before and shortly after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24th February, 2022 have indicated that European countries filled their reserves of natural gas.

When considering previous reporting, Gazprom has previously stated that it could cut supply at the Sudzha compressor station from 28th November 2022 along with other hostile claims about Europe’s price caps on natural gas. Prior to these incidents, Gazprom did release an advert in September 2022 which suggested that it would freeze Europe by completely cutting off gas supplies. Also of note is prior to the Nord Stream pipeline explosions in 2022, the Russian government and Gazprom were disrupting supplies of gas along the Nord Stream pipeline on the basis that turbine parts could not be delivered due to European sanctions. The claims made by the Russian government and Gazprom appeared to fit a pattern of behaviour; prior analysis on Gazprom and natural gas supplies to Europe has pointed out that the Russian government - who is the majority shareholder of Gazprom - will use natural gas supplies as a form of economic leverage against Europe.

Incidents shown in both figures 1 and 2 would suggest that the recent supply reduction at Sudzha could be a deliberate move to force European countries to use their reserves during a period which will require increased consumption and consequently, potentially deplete available supplies across Europe. A situation where reserves are near or completely empty would be an ideal opportunity to maximise Russia’s energy leverage on Europe by finding a reason or event - regardless of credibility - to declare ‘force majeure’ at the Sudzha station; providing the means to pressure Europe to stop supporting Ukraine. COMMENT ENDS.

Assessment

It is plausible that Gazprom’s recent announcement of reducing supply at the Sudzha station was to take advantage of current weather conditions to force the use of reserve supplies of natural gas in Europe. It is also plausible the motive was to retaliate against recent announcements of military aid to Ukraine.?

While long term weather forecasts can be difficult, it is plausible future periods of extreme cold/snowfall across Europe will provide an opportunity for Gazprom to repeat this decision and in time, have the potential to reduce reserve supplies which can enable an announcement of ‘force majeure’ of gas supply at the Sudzha Station in order to have maximum effect on Russia pressuring Europe to cease its support of Ukraine.

Weather conditions can maximise the impact, so future periods of extreme cold/snowfall across Europe can serve as a potential indicator of further reductions of supply via the Sudzha Compressor Station. With each time such a scenario occurs, the potential for the Russian government to eventually make a claim of ‘force majeure’ based on suspicious circumstances will become likely.

author: Matt Pratten, Senior Regional Analyst for Europe, Intelligence Fusion

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