russia has increased the cost paid in equipment per square kilometer by 15800%

Happy New Year to you. Russia has increased the cost paid in equipment per square kilometer by 15800%. Fifteen thousand eight hundred percent compared to the first month of the invasion!

"russia conquers several more settlements in Donbas", "russia advances relentlessly in Ukraine", "russia continues its relentless assault on Ukraine". These are the headlines I have heard, read and seen in the national and international media over the past year.

Such headlines, repeated over a long period of time, produce a simple predictable effect: (1) demobilization of volunteers around the world from supporting Ukraine, (2) building the image of an invincible and unstoppable Russia, and (3) a decline in interest in the conflict. But is the cold, practical reality of war identical to what we are predominantly presented with in the media?

I, at least, have long been saying that Russia is paying a huge cost for the offensive that began in October 2023 on 3 different axes: Southern Axis (Zaporozhe Front, Robotyne sector, Vuhledar and Velika Novosiilka), Southeastern Axis (Donbas, Bakhmut-Chasiv Yar and Avdiivka - Khurakove - Pokrovsk) and Eastern Axis (Kupyansk and Oskil River). Is it true that the price paid by Russia is huge? I tried to verify this thesis using the correlation of two important figures: how many different pieces of equipment each illegally conquered square kilometer in Ukraine costs Russia. And how much was this cost in the past. Has it increased? Has it decreased? Is Russia infinite in power?

For this comparative analysis, I chose the whole year 2024 to compare with the first month of the initial invasion: February 24, 2022 - March 24, 2022. To find the area, illegally controlled by russia, I used @DeepState_UA maps and reports, and for equipment losses (cost paid by russia) I used the Oryx database, which collects all losses of both sides that can be visually confirmed.

We divided equipment into three broad categories: tanks, armored infantry and artillery. To simplify the analysis and make it more accessible, under infantry armored IFV (Infantry Fighting Vehicle) and APC (Armored Personnel Carrier). For artillery I have stacked mortars, self-propelled artillery and towed artillery. The results are something like this:

1. Analysis between February 24, 2022 and March 24, 2022:

1.1 Russian gains and losses period February 24, 2022 - March 24, 2022:

Area illegally occupied by Russia from the beginning of the invasion to Feb 24, 2022: 84993 km2

Total equipment losses (not just the ones listed by me here): 1758

Tank losses: 280

Armored losses: 534

Artillery losses: 131

1.2 Cost analysis period February 24, 2022 - March 24, 2022:

Cost to russia in equipment for each km2 illegally conquered in Ukraine in the period 24 Feb 2022 - 24 Mar 2022:

Total equipment: 0.021 / km2 (47.6 km2 gained for every equipment lost)

Tanks: 0.003 / km2 (333 km2 gained for each tank lost)

Armored: 0.006 / km2 (166 km2 gained for each armored lost)

Artillery: 0.001 / km2 (1000 km2 gained for each artillery lost)

Average: 0.0033 equipment / km2

2. Analyze the period 1 Jan 2024 vs 1 Jan 2025:

2.1 Russian gains and losses period Jan 1, 2024 and Jan 1, 2025:

Area illegally occupied by Russia between 1 Jan 2024 and 1 Jan 2025, from which we subtract the 481 km2 (according to DeepState_UA) controlled by Ukraine in Kursk: 2816 km2

Total equipment losses in this period: 5984

Tank losses: 1060

Armored losses: 2958

Artillery losses: 425

2.2 Cost analysis between Jan 1, 2024 and Jan 1, 2025:

Cost to Russia in equipment for each km2 illegally conquered in Ukraine in the period Jan 1, 2024 to Jan 1, 2025:

Cost per/km2 2024:

Total equipment: 2.1/km2 (0.47 km2 gained for each equipment lost)

Tanks: 0.37 / km2 (2.7 km2 gained for each tank lost)

Armored: 1.05 / km2 (1 km2 gained for each armor lost)

Artillery: 0.15 / km2 (6.66 km2 gained for each artillery lost)

Average 0.52 equipment / km2

3. Comparative analysis:

3.1 Russia's losses in 2024 relative to total losses (period Feb 24, 2022 - Jan 1, 2025):

2024 losses out of total losses:

Total: 30.3%

Tanks: 28.8%

Armored: 38.5%

Artillery: 24.5%

3.2 Difference in losses Feb 24 - Mar 24 2022 vs total 2024:

Average losses equipment analyzed (tanks, armored, artillery): Cost increased by 0.5167 equipment/km2. In proportional terms, losses per km2 are 158 times higher, i.e. an increase of 15800%.

Segmented by type of equipment:

Tanks: the Russians lost 123 times as many tanks for every km2 illegally conquered in 2024 compared to the period analyzed above;

Armored: the Russians lost 175 times more armored vehicles for every km2 illegally conquered;

Artillery: the Russians lost 150 times as many artillery guns for every km2 illegally conquered;

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I think it is important to see the conflict from this perspective as well, and it is certainly not a perfect perspective, but it is a necessary one. Yes, the differences are big. If in February, Ukraine's defense lines were poorly developed all along the front line and thus Russia was able to break through and conquer vast territories without great losses, in the same way we have to take into account that the Ukrainian Army manages immediately after the period under review to liberate a significant amount of territory (Kyiv, Sumy, Chernihiv Oblast) with an undersized army (it was barely a month since people were crowding the recruitment centers) and the Armed Forces of Ukraine were still almost at par when we talk about the number of troops and much inferior in terms of numbers in absolutely all other categories.

This is just one lens through which we can look at the conflict in Ukraine, in the following posts I will try to analyze how much of what I considered essential for 2024 Ukraine has managed to do, as well as an analysis of the military development and the deepening of some systemic problems in the Ukrainian soldiers and Ukrainian politics, and then I will move on to an analysis of 2025 with this basis of analysis.

Ukraine is not only holding its own, but it is doing so in a way that is very effective for it and for us in Europe. at the same time it is doing so in a way that is extremely costly and costly for russia. russia, which this year will be faced with a feeling it has not encountered since World War II: an equipment crisis. For the Soviet Union's "infinite" reserves have been shredded like in a slaughterhouse by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, to such a degree that this year the Red Army will face the inevitable finite finite of "infinite" reserves. But for that, I have prepared another analysis.

Happy New Year to you, Happy New Year to Romania in Schengen (i.e. don't let the morons kick us out), Happy New Year to independent and sovereign Ukraine!

Slava Ukraini!