Russia-China-US-EU: Putout

The partial destruction of Putin’s Kerch bridge between Russia and Crimea on 8th October set off wild social media speculations about next moves by either side. An attack on Belarus? Eyewitness reports cover long traffic jams of Russians and others fleeing Crimea. A spontaneous fear response? Or an expectation that Putin will use nuclear weapons leading to a US response through the world’s largest conventional bomb – equal in destruction to a nuclear weapon – wiping out the Russian Black Sea Fleet and everything else on Crimea? Putin’s silence is remarkable. The announcing of an intergovernmental committee to study what happened is not the way of autocrats.

How certain can Putin be that his next move will be successful? How certain can his entourage be he will find the right answer? How certain can his key ally, China, be that they bet on the right horse?

Soon Henry Kissinger becomes a centenarian. 50 years ago he laid the groundwork for Richard Nixon’s famed opening to China. Ever since he is close to any Chinese leader’s heart.

Kissinger Associates has a substantial operation in Beijing. Former KA Director Ambassador Jerry Bremer, a good friend, confirms Henry’s close relationship with Chinese leaders. My very senior Chinese friends still glow after meeting the oldest of eminences grises.

?According to Kissinger last week President Xi misjudged Putin’s ability to conquer Ukraine in three days. (Beijing suffers under the same phenomenon that its diplomats and ‘experts’ report what capitals want to hear, not what happens). So Xi, says Kissinger, is “recalibrating”. No further challenging of the US and distancing from Putin. A stronger pressure on Russia to stop violence.

So while the Chinese military build-up is even fastened, for now Beijing’s goal is a start of negotiations. But a real push for that may only follow when Putin understands Putout. My own understanding remains that an expected downturn of Russia’s domestic socio-economic situation around the second quarter of 2023 will help Xi to quietly remind Putout what happens if Chinese buying of Russia’s raw materials grinds to a halt. Putout’s increasing international isolation would then become untenable. Even the money-hungry OPEC+ members – confronted with US measures following Saudi-led output reduction – may then review their ‘realpolitik’.

It must be noticeable to all actors. Weaknesses such as humanitarianism and values make societies pursuing transparency and democracy survive while being the kiss of death for autocratic and authoritarian regimes.

That latter truth is the biggest challenge also for China’s future. Economic successes and growth cannot be continued as FDI dwindles, international capital leaves, and currently still substantial export income slows. Xi knows driving up domestic consumption is the only answer. But that requires a redistribution of national income. That comes with more power to the people. And Xi’s policies promote exactly the opposite. China is now the global leader in societal savings. And this still increases. Such savings occur globally when the public expects hardship and failure of the Government to take care of them. That creates instability at the eve of Xi’s expected and unprecedented third-term appointment as President. If that happens he may have to deal with the consequences of unsuccessful landgrab by autocratic leaders losing both war and international and domestic support. Putout has found a new truth. Thanks to him the US and NATO are now really at his door step. Russia’s grip on Germany is played out. Over 100,000 Russians have entered neighbouring countries. Unarmed and with hands up.

Today the sun graces Ukrainian autumn colours quite similar to an American Indian Summer. The Soviet-built bunkers throughout Ukraine once meant to withstand American missiles; they now keep Putin’s weapons out. As Churchill said: “The Americans always do the right thing – after trying out everting else first.”