Rumsfeld Matrix : Theory and Application

Introduction

As time rolls on you pick up knowledge and techniques for your ‘Toolbag’.?I recently rediscovered a technique that in a time of fast paced delivery may ensure a level of rigour when considering risks.?The Rumsfeld matrix is this technique.?A colleague at the time (Neil Sinclair) brought up the idea and together with myself and another colleague, James Weston, we adapted it for use on a project.?Below is a description of the process and how it was applied.

Description of Rumsfeld Matrix

Starting a new project can be a confusing time.?The client thinks they know the problem(s), but initial discussions unearth more gaps than known facts.?The questions are:

• How can I tackle this situation?
• How can I decompose the multiple unknowns into known’s, form the exam questions and get the answers?
• How can I find at least one point of reference and build out from there?
• How can I deal with the conflicting information from multiple sources, with varying depths of techno speak, around multiple problems and identify “What We Know” and “What We Know We Don’t Know” ?
• How do I transform those unnerving gut feelings about the project into questions and subsequent answers?

This is where the Rumsfeld Ignorance Management Matrix can help.?It’s a 2x2 box model that can:

• Uncover gaps, questions, and issues
• Formulate questions to these gaps and issues
• Help populate the project plan
• Clearly identify what we know and what we know we don’t know
• Be used as a way of identifying risk clearly and concisely
• Be used to track progress on our understanding of the problems with dashboards

The four-box model below is a way of collecting together issues, risks, knowledge gaps, known unknowns and gut feelings which can subsequently be analysed and measured on a weekly basis.

The model is split with two vertical halves. ?The “Internal” are things we can plan and action; the “External” are where we are reliant upon others and cannot action.

• Starting in the upper right, Box 1 is titled “Unknown Unknown’s”. ?This is the place where we can add things or issues which we have a gut instinct about or things that don’t feel right but currently have no shape. ?The questions to clearly define the issue or question have not fully been crafted or defined. ?These are generally things are that are external to the project.
• Below this is Box 2, titled “Known Unknowns”, it contains questions, gaps, risks or issues which we can define or have crafted questions for. ?The answers rely on the input or action of an external party.
• On the top left is Box 3, titled “Known Unknown’s”, it contains questions, gaps, risks or issues which we have defined or crafted questions for and are within our power to gain answers. ?Usually these will be on the plan as an activity
• Finally Box 4, “Known Known’s”, contains facts with some level of assurance which can be used across the project. ?Answers to questions in any of the quadrants should end up here.

There is a natural progression around the matrix indicated by the arrows and somewhere at the bottom half of Box 3 is the point at which a question migrates onto the project plan as an activity.

Applying Rumsfeld Matrix in a Project

You want to use a Rumsfeld Board on a project, where to start?

Setup - From experience, we learnt that before initiating the board, OBJECTIVES need to be determined in order to focus the capture of issues, risks, concerns, gaps and known information populated within the Rumsfeld Board quadrants. ?The level of GRANULARITY needs to be defined to avoid any confusion to those contributing and provide consistency across the identified items. ?The use and continued management needs to be PLANNED for and ALIGNED with programmed activities and milestones, with a view to promoting team coherence around the tangible/non-tangible 'things' that will prevent successful completion of programmed tasks. ?When planning the use of the board, remember to consider the 'end to end' process, as a blinkered approach can often miss the things that can help or hinder the immediate activities as well as any downstream requirements that need to be known up front.

Kickoff -?the starting point for using this method is via a facilitated team brain storming session using a white board and post-it notes. ?This could be at the project kick-off / start-up meeting.

The Approach -The approach we took was to make the board visible to all project team members i.e. put it on a wall (or in a group Mural) and make it interactive via “post-it” notes so the whole team can participate. We fine-tuned the board with classification of items.?There are four categories that were used:

• Business
• Technical
• Delivery
• Risk

Using the board to effectively and continually add value to the project team is key for the implementation and continued use of this tool. ?Our way to introduce effectiveness was to have individuals update the board during the week and then weekly follow a few steps, call it P.C.M.; or:

1. Populate – Facilitated team sessions to focus attention on concerns and gaps external and internal to the project. This included recently gained valuable sources of information that the entire team could benefit from.
2. Consolidate – Review what is currently there to ensure everyone understands the knowledge gaps and to remove duplicates.
3. Manage – Facilitated weekly team sessions to mobilise items around the board with the aim to promote or demote captured points from quadrant to quadrant depending upon updated knowledge.

The output from the weekly meeting was then analysed, with a report being generated.

Advantages

Use of the Rumsfeld matrix drives a number of activities that will improve project planning and delivery outcomes.?For example, raising technical areas of concern can lead to early Proof-of-Concepts, showing clients possibilities and constraints while requirements and solutions are still being formulated.

The diagram below shows a model for Risk Management and how Board items generated from sessions with the team feed into the risk register. ?Each item is treated as potential risks and then further reviewed to clearly define what the risk(s) may be. These are then added to the risk register and actively managed.

Conclusion

The Rumsfeld matrix is a clear way of communicating to a wide audience the current understanding of the project and clearly identifying risk, worries and areas of “doubt and uncertainty”. ?Project Managers can gain insight into risks and issues emerging on the project. Useful metrics can be gained by analysing and measuring the numbers, categories of gaps, issues and unknowns contained in the matrix which allows tracking of the projects understanding. ?In essence, the matrix is a technique, when applied early in a (Waterfall or Agile) project can unearth the challenges that the business, technology and process will face, while it is still possible to mitigate for them.