Rubik's Cube.

More than 22 million American businesses are in the struggle for their life. Our once-robust $23 trillion economy is now operating at 2/3, and business leaders in both large corporations and small businesses are trying to find the right path to a reopening so that the fear and depression doesn't continue to spread and compound. Many business models like Amazon or toilet paper manufacturers are thriving during this crisis; however, most models are bruised, broken, or highly questionable when it comes to quickly adjusting to new, tough market dynamics. What will the landscape and "competitive sets" look like in 12 months for most American businesses operating in our new normal?

The national economy is much like a giant Rubik’s Cube. So is our current challenge. A quick glance at a dusty map reveals the country neatly divided by invisible state lines. A closer, more sophisticated look at the country requires new thinking and different questions, and much more advanced-problem solving skills. There is thinking fast and slow: simple thinking and decision making, and complex decision making. This is clearly the former. Consider the many dimensions to this large and diverse nation: you will discover it is a complex patchwork of 164 million workers, and some 210 distinct Nielsen DMAs (markets) overlaid on a patchwork of 900-plus industries. Some like to segment the country into 11 distinct sub-nations or cultures. Even the Federal Reserve has the country parceled into 12 Reserve Districts to track and manage economic activity and monetary policies. We have 20 major cities, 3,007 counties, and 41,702 Zip Codes, but real estate economists and investors like to look at the 300 distinct housing markets quilted into the American landscape from coast to coast. Fisher Island (33109), just off-shore from Miami, is the most expensive ZIP Code in the US, but there are many others that rival it; a large number of ZIPs are sadly characterized by shocking poverty and challenge for far too many Americans. These are the folks most at risk of these severe challenges; we should never lose sight of how to help our most vulnerable. This defines us as human beings. Now is the time to prove we can do the right things. Things are more complex and dynamic and challenging than they first appear when glancing at that dusty map from your desk drawer.

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis provides deep analysis of 93 industries, and the indicators all spell severe challenge just ahead as we grasp a global pandemic. Our society and business models are not built to effectively deal with fast-moving pandemics. So far. But remember, we are highly adaptable creatures. Clearly, the entertainment and retail parts of our “Rubik’s Cube” have collapsed and will probably struggle the most in the coming months and years. People will think twice about going out for dinner, walking and shopping the local mall, or taking in a movie at the theatre around the corner. Almost every other business will see a massive jolt and shift of one kind or another - and will need to quickly adapt, or die. Going to the optometrist or dentist will look much different: patients will be generously spaced out, the waiting room will be eliminated, equipment and products will be disinfected in between presentations, and the process will feel much different. Those who have been reluctant to embrace online banking or grocery shopping will now be forced to align to the New World. 

What do we know? I have been thinking about some of the works and insights from one of the greatest business thought-leaders and best-selling authors in the country over the last couple decades, Jim Collins. In his book, How The Mighty Fall: And Why Some Companies Never Give In (2009), he creates a strong case that far too many successful companies follow undisciplined pursuits of more and deny risk during the good times, only to fall hard. He talks about the leaders and team dynamics that lack contrarian viewpoints at decision points, and how it almost always leads to disaster. We need to react now, and get much better at anticipating and planning for change in the future. In his classic, Good to Great (2001), Level 5 leaders demonstrate humility and will, and often help their organizations more effectively navigate treacherous waters and dramatic market changes. Those big and small businesses that pursue the “Hedgehog Principle” have greater clarity of who, what, and why they do what they do. They are obsessed with being the absolute best at that small, narrow set of core competencies. The companies that remain strong through the ups and downs of business cycles and change are the ones who are rigorous, not ruthless. We need excellent leadership now more than ever. You don't need a big title to be a leader.  In Built to Last (1994), we are reminded that the only constant is change, excellent leaders lead positive change in their organizations and deliver strong, consistent results, and you need to learn how to fail fast. This is the time to lean-forward, try new things, and be open to adapting to ideas that would have seemed crazy just 90 days ago. Be open-minded to solving problems.  In Great by Choice (2011), we learn about the importance of “The 20 Mile March” and how to lead just above the “Death Line”, being fanatical about discipline, and productively-paranoid and creative. This is the winning combination and most predictable proverbial “straight-line” on remaining relevant, profitable, and sustainable in our competitive world. In a nutshell, we all need to quickly and brilliantly adjust to thriving in a radically-different business model. You might be forced to completely rethink and redesign who and what you do in the marketplace.

Life is complex and hard, and the rate of change and struggle is real during our current crisis. Regardless of what ZIP Code you call home. All of the rules that worked before are now out the window. The proven playbook you were so comfortable with doesn't work anymore. Now more than ever, we need the best leadership, teamwork, ideas and change management execution. There are billions of combinations to solving a Rubik’s Cube. Our current challenges are much like a Rubik’s Cube. However, we know how to solve it. We are well-equipped, and know how to navigate and make better decisions at the national and local levels, and in big and small organizations. We know how to think and act quickly. We know how to try and fail fast. It starts with each of us. Every person needs to be a part of the team to solve this Cube. Now is the time to listen to each other. Think and solve, and work together as ONE TEAM. I am confident we are up to the challenge, and will demonstrate the best version of ourselves during this finest hour. I already see it in a thousand ways.