Royal Tour - New Beginning for Tanzania?

The initial announcement of President Samia Suluhu's brainchild, The Royal Tour documentary, was not met with much enthusiasm in Tanzania. Many people were quite cynical about the idea, particularly the part where the president stars in it. If you want to attract tourists, people argued, why not get Bongo celebs such as Hamisa Mobetto, Diamond, or Haji Manara to do the job for you?

People’s cynicism was not unfounded – youth, beauty, and popularity sell. So, the idea of using an outwardly conservative person to champion a marketing campaign was considered unorthodox. However, today, the Royal Tour increasingly looks like a strategic masterstroke, creating all the right kind of noises for Tanzania.

At least that’s the vibe that we got from the tour's reports in the United States.

According to the latest communique, in the trip where the Head of State has already met, among others, the VP of the US, the World Bank president, and the WTO president, the Tanzanian team has signed agreements for projects to be implemented in Tanzania worth USD 5.04 billion with the potential of employing over 300,000 people.

Not a bad return for a week’s engagement.

The Dark Age

After six years in the wilderness, Tanzania can surely use a hard reboot of its international relations. The Royal Tour is a sequel to the efforts that are made to bring light back to the nation.

In today’s world, there is no option for going it alone. All nations that have made it, they have done so through more and not less globalisation. Shunning integration implies little or no economic growth. Even for losing globalisers, the solution is not less globalisation but more and proper globalisation.

Thus, the government’s efforts to reintegrate the nation with the rest of the world are praiseworthy.

The same can be said about the government’s decision to make tourism a priority given its importance to Tanzania’s economy. In 2019, when Tanzania attracted 1.6 million tourists, tourism contributed USD 6.6 billion to Tanzania and employed 1.6 million people, 11 percent of Tanzania’s labour force.

That said, despite the presence of world famous attractions such as Mount Kilimanjaro, Ngorongoro Crater, and the Serengeti, the number of tourists and the receipts thereof can be better.

For example, in comparison with nations such as Egypt, Morocco, and South Africa which see more than 10 million visitors annually, Tanzania’s 1.6 million visitors pale in comparison. Given Tanzania’s massive comparative advantage for nature tourism, it is not inconceivable to attract 5 million tourists or more a year with little effort. Hence, the president’s efforts to unlock that potential, especially after the COVID precipitated slump, cannot be overemphasised.

Billions of Dollars in Lost FDIs Inflows

Then there is that USD 5.04 billion in business deals. If there was ever a question about Tanzania’s economic potential, then this should provide the answer.

Foreign Direct Investments are the growth fuel of modern economies. The amount of FDIs a nation receives is usually a very good indicator of the competitiveness of its economy – the higher the FDIs, the more attractive the economy. It is no wonder then that the world's two biggest economies, China and the US, are also leading in terms of FDIs received – with FDIs in the US reaching beyond USD 400 billion in 2016.

In Tanzania, FDIs peaked during Kikwete years when Tanzania overtook Kenya in inflows among the EAC members. However, FDIs tumbled from an average of USD 1.6 billion in Kikwete’s last 5 years, to USD 0.94 billion in Magufuli years. In 5 years, Tanzania wasted opportunities worth at least USD 4 billion – even after discounting growth. That has led to a significant pent up investment demand which the government capitalises on right now, and that is encouraging. It shows that President Samia has her priorities right.

That is called leadership.

Tanzania requires billions of dollars to be invested in the economy every year to unlock her economic potential. USD 10 billion is required by 2025 for Tanesco to meet its targets. USD 30 billion is needed to kick-start the LNG project. USD 4.3 billion is required for Mtwara Development Corridor. Thus, from sector to sector and project to project – it is the same story.

A Better Tomorrow?

The Royal Tour brings to light a number of things:

One, that it is possible for leaders to choose to compete politically by doing the right things. Until now the trend has been to try to gain political milestone by suppressing or killing the opposition, but why not choose to deal with the opposition by getting things done instead? Tanzanians aren’t stupid – they will know who to thank for their development.

Two, that Tanzania can be transformed very fast. Foreigners don’t invest in any country because of their good hearts, they do so because they have something to gain. The good thing is that Tanzania has a lot to offer, so the potential for change is massive. It is all about political will.

Three, that Tanzania needs a long term economic vision. Economic success is the outcome of doing the right things consistently. The US didn’t become the biggest economy by growing in leaps and bounds – it grew at an average rate of 2 percent for 150 years. They are not doing so bad, aren’t they? Without a long term plan, Tanzania risks getting another loose cannon - a Tinkerbell - at the top who believes that all economic wisdoms don’t matter. What a bummer!

Here is to hoping for a new beginning.

NB: This article was first published in The Citizen.