Roses are Red | AI Inaction Summit | Ukraine Endgame?

Welcome to the WEEKLY ROUNDUP from Navigate Politics, bringing you the top news, publications and movements from UK politics over the past seven days. Want to receive this Roundup in you inbox every Friday? ?? Subscribe for free and ??listen here

Driving the Week

After all the buildup ahead of the AI Action Summit in Paris this week, it all seemed to conclude rather uneventfully, as the UK joined the US in not signing the international agreement. The statement was signed by dozens of other countries including France, India and China, and sets an ambition to reduce digital divides by promoting AI accessibility and ensuring its development is transparent, safe, secure and trustworthy. The UK Government confirmed it had not signed due to concerns over national security and global governance, while US Vice President JD Vance asserted that “American AI will not be co-opted into a tool for authoritarian censorship” as he argued that pro-growth AI policies should be prioritised over safety. To add to this, Keir Starmer failed to attend, despite the fact his predecessor Rishi Sunak hosted the world’s first AI summit not so long ago in 2023. Instead he sent Science Sec Peter Kyle, who announced on Friday morning that the UK’s AI Safety Institute will be renamed the ‘AI Security Institute’, to reflect its focus on serious AI risks with security implications, and unveiled a Memorandum of Understanding on AI opportunities with Anthropic.

Trump made some early progress on his pledge to end the war in Ukraine, holding what he termed a ‘highly productive’ 90-minute phone call with Russian President Putin on Wednesday. During the call, the two leaders agreed to begin negotiations to end the war and each invited the other to their respective capitals. It comes as a blow to Ukraine, with the negotiations pushing Kyiv out of the driving seat and undermining the West’s unified front against Russian aggression… not helped by Trump’s admission he would ‘love’ to have Russia back in the G7. It also comes as US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed this week there would be no US troops for Ukraine in any future security arrangement, no likelihood of Ukraine joining NATO, and no realistic possibility of the country returning to its pre-2014 borders (when Russian annexed Crimea) – all clearly stated goals by President Zelensky. Ultimately, it looks like Trump is keen to end the war as soon as possible, even if it means forcing Ukraine to swallow some rather bitter pills. On the plus side, he did agree to involve them in any peace talks… which is nice…

The Munich Security Conference kicked off on Friday, with Foreign Secretary David Lammy the most senior Government figure in attendance after the Prime Minister opted out. All eyes will be on his first meeting with US counterpart Marco Rubio, with the pair expected to see each other at the conference in some form, although it remains unclear whether this will involve a proper sit-down meeting or a brief chat on the sidelines. And of course, the UK and Europe are likely to end up spending much of their time trying to work out how to deal with Trump’s new Ukraine ‘peace’ plan.

Where are they now? Pt.1

It’s over seven months now since the 2024 General Election, and so the 218 former MPs who lost their seats have had plenty of time to get a new job. We thought we’d start taking a look to see how some of them were getting on…

Perhaps the biggest shock of the night was when 49-day Prime Minister Liz Truss was defeated by Labour’s Terry Jermy in South West Norfolk. Since July, as well as appearing at the usual events ex-PMs attend such as Remembrance Sunday at the Cenotaph, she has travelled to the USA multiple times to show support for Donald Trump and continued her pursuit of ‘saving the West’. She will shortly be speaking at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Washington D.C. Since 4 July 2024 she has: called for the Human Rights Act to be repealed and for the UK to leave the ECHR; said the Conservative’s ‘lefty policies’ led to the 2024 election defeat; advocated for a ‘Great Restoration Bill’ to restore the ‘ancient laws of the British constitution’; said the BBC should be defunded; labelled USAID as part of the ‘international deep state’; called for an ‘Executive Order’ that ‘bans anti-meritocratic nonsense’ of universities moving away from traditional exam results; said the Supreme Court and Constitutional Reform Act 2005 should ‘go’; accused the Bank of England of having been ‘captured by leftist ideology’; dreamed of a world where the ‘mini-budget had been implemented’, said the PM had been ‘inspired by’ 1984 and Animal Farm… and sent Keir Starmer a ‘cease and desist’ letter over his repeated comments that she had ‘crashed the economy’…?

As well as hosting a show on GB News, the former Minister for Brexit Opportunities and Government Efficiency (the original DOGE?) Jacob Rees-Mogg has become a bit of a reality TV star (yes, really), as a five-part documentary called ‘Meet the Rees-Moggs’ premiered on discovery+ back in December. The series follows Rees-Mogg, his wife and their six children, while it was filmed over a period which includes the election and Rees-Mogg losing his seat.

Former Portsmouth North MP and Royal Navy Reservist Penny Mordaunt has returned to her roots, having recently been appointed as Chair of the Board of SubSea Craft, who work in the field of maritime technology. But we could we also see Mordaunt returning to Westminster, after she confirmed she intended to stand at the next general election, with rumours already abound of by-elections in certain safe-ish Conservative seats. Former Defence, Energy, and Transport Secretary Grant Shapps could also seek a return to the green benches, with his post-Parliamentary career involving multiple media appearances so far, as well as a good amount of time flying his plane.

Also failing to fully escape the hustle and bustle of the political world is Andrea Jenkyns, an ex-Conservative MP who will be standing to be the Mayor of Greater Lincolnshire this May: only she’ll be standing as the Reform UK candidate. Don Valley’s only ever Conservative MP Nick Fletcher is also seeking to become a Mayor, and he’ll be standing, for the Conservatives, in Doncaster, while Paul Bristow will be standing for the Conservatives in the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough Mayoral Election.

Defence policy has formed quite an important part of Labour’s time in power so far, and one-ex MP is seeking to influence its direction, as former Minister for Defence Procurement and Defence Committee Chair (and Tory MP!) Jeremy Quin is a member of the Defence Review Team helping to produce the Strategic Defence Review for the Government. Also in the Defence sector is Sarah Atherton, who chaired a Defence Sub-Committee inquiry into Women in the Armed Forces, as the ex-Wrexham MP now describes herself as a ‘Defence Influencer’, with her role being to support organisations within the defence eco-system to implement policies which are future-proof. Ex-British Army Captain and Defence Minister Tobias Ellwood is also acting as a consultant, commentator & speaker across defence, international security and geopolitics.

The Week in Stats

0.1% – UK economic growth in the final three months of last year.

78,000 – The number of mobile phones reported stolen in England and Wales between 2023-24, a 153% increase on the period before. A whopping 58,000 of these occurred in London.

14 – The number of people from the infected blood scandal who have received compensation.

1.9 million – The number of adults who were active on a dating app on Valentine’s Day last year.

￡69 – The average amount Londoners spend on Valentine’s Day.

In Case You Missed it

MP for Gorton and Denton Andrew Gwynne was sacked as Public Health Minister and suspended from the Labour Party over the weekend, after it was uncovered that he sent a string of offensive and abusive WhatsApp messages. The messages included Gwynne stating that he hoped a 72-year-old woman would soon be dead, alongside sexist comments about the Deputy Prime Minister and racist comments about Diane Abbott. Ashley Dalton MP was appointed as his replacement in DHSC. Oliver Ryan MP was also suspended from the Labour Party due to his involvement in the WhatsApp group chat.

The Government announced plans to speed up and simplify procurement processes, including changing spending rules, with local councils able to reserve contracts for small businesses to maximise spend within their area; and a new duty for firms that win contracts with government bodies to advertise jobs at job centres. The announcements were detailed in the new National Procurement Policy Statement (NPPS)?which will update and streamline the system used by all central government departments and their agencies to align it with the Government’s missions.

Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson unveiled a series of changes to the apprenticeships system to mark National Apprenticeship Week, including removing the requirement for apprentices to have to achieve standalone qualifications in English and Maths. The Government will also reduce the minimum duration of apprenticeships from 12 months to 8 months, with the changes hoping to allow employers to make greater use of apprentices. Later in the week, DfE also announced reforms to the apprenticeship training provider payment system – which will stop the need for providers to log the same data multiple times; and changes to End Point Assessments (EPAs), so that apprentices don’t have to be re-tested on the same skills they have already demonstrated.?

The Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government announced it has received over 100 proposals for new towns across Britain, as the New Towns Taskforce this week set clear principles on what the next generation of new towns will deliver: affordable housing, vital infrastructure and access to open green spaces and nature. To get plans moving, the Government announced plans to fast stream planning through brokering disagreements between the agencies and expert bodies, which by law must be consulted within the planning process.

Reform UK pledged to scrap the country's net zero target and impose taxes on the renewable energy sector, arguing that green energy is to blame for higher energy bills and deindustrialisation in the UK. Party leader Nigel Farage and deputy leader Richard Tice announced the plans on Thursday, in which they suggested the Party would tax solar farms and introduce laws to ensure that cabling happens underground, rather than on pylons.

Restrictions are due to be imposed on foods high in fat, salt and sugar in Wales, as regulations were laid in the Senedd this week. The regulations will: restrict promotions that can encourage over-consumption, such as multi-buy offers and restrict the presentation of foods high in fat, sugar and salt products at prime selling locations in stores. It is expected the proposals will be in place in March next year, if passed in the Senedd next month.

Highlights from Parliament

Parliament is now enjoying a week-long recess after cramming in 33 written statements, 5 UQs and 3 ministerial statements this week, ranging from oil and gas fields to US steel import tariffs, progress on the Infected Blood Compensation Scheme and Ukraine. Security Minister Dan Jarvis also announced the publication of the Prevent learning review into the perpetrator of the attack that tragically killed former MP Sir David Amess in 2021, finding that he was released from the anti-terror programme “too quickly” and its handling of him was “sub-optimal”. He confirmed that the Home Secretary has asked the Prevent commissioner to review the programme’s interactions with the perpetrator, and ensure the implementation of the report’s recommendations.

Over in the Lords, the Terrorism (Protection of Premises) Bill passed its committee stage, the Great British Energy Bill passed report stage and the Water (Special Measures) Bill awaits Royal Assent. Kim Leadbeater’s Assisted Dying Bill also sparked further division as she set out plans for cases to be signed off by experts rather than a High Court judge. It comes after concerns were raised cover the court’s capacity to hear each individual case. However, a number of MPs have accused Leadbeater of watering down the Bill’s safeguards, with its committee stage due to resume on 25 February.

Polls and Think Tanks

British people are not fans of Trump’s bromance with Putin according to YouGov’s data. 51% said a peace deal negotiated between the two of them would be better for Russia than Ukraine, with just 5% saying it would be of greater benefit to Ukraine. 32% said Ukraine should reject any peace deal negotiated without its involvement that requires it to give up territory, and would support the UK maintaining military assistance. However, 44% believe the USA does not have responsibility to protect Europe, while 29% believe it does.

Love might not bridge the divide according to More in Common’s findings, which were shared with Politico in time for Valentine’s Day. It found that: 29% of Brits say they would never enter a romantic relationship with a Reform voter; 30% of both Labour and Conservative voters would not date someone from the other party; and 36% of Reform voters ruled out dating Labour voters.

Residents of towns are far more pessimistic about their areas than city dwellers according to Onward’s newest report, which found that 62% of city residents thought their area was doing well, compared to 44% in towns. Its recommendations for improving outlooks in towns include tackling crime and antisocial behaviour, high street regeneration and improving public transport and connectivity.

The Government should be more emphatic in its support for domestic solar panels, argues the Resolution Foundation’s most recent report. It stated that domestic solar can deliver an average of ￡440 per year in energy bill reductions to the households that get them and encouraged policy makers to ‘think about rooftop solar like other ways of permanently reducing household energy spending, such as improving insulation.’

You’ve Got to Laugh

We would like to thank the Government for their kind consideration of the work of political monitoring companies this week, when they very helpfully sent their pre-planned answers to Monday’s Defence Questions… to? Conservative MPs. Whilst obviously a little embarrassing, the document’s accidental leak, showing the sheer number of pre-written supplementary questions and answers, is a rare public glimpse into the way the Commons has increasingly moved away from a spontaneous and thoughtful debating chamber over the past few decades, into a scripted, read-aloud, social media-ready piece of theatre... When you’re able to largely print Hansard in advance… it somewhat loses its worth…

It's time to dust off our Overused Metaphor of the Week Award. We haven’t had a chance to dish out the award since Wes Streeting’s nautical monologue on election night (well worth a rewatch if you don’t remember it) but this week our renamed and relaunched Unnecessary Analogy of the Week Award goes to Paymaster General Nick Thomas-Symonds for insisting in a Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs Committee session that it was “perfectly possible to cuddle more than one person at the same time”, when asked what would happen if the Government had to choose whether to “hop into bed” with the EU or US.

Finally, in a week of awards, we are pleased to be able to gift our Understatement of the Week Award to Defence Minister Maria Eagle for her response to Rishi Sunak during an Urgent Question on Ukraine this week. In her response to his supplementary question on military support for Ukraine, the Minister noted the former Prime Minister had “played a part when he was in office in dealing with these matters.” It’s worth remembering that Rishi Sunak served as Prime Minister for 618 of the 1,086 days since Russia invaded…