The root cause of war indirectly instigated the USA of Ukraine for its own benefit to spread its own inclusion. A brief synopsis from 2014 to date

?RUSSIAN INVASION OF UKRAINE: IS ANY SOLUTION VISIBLE NOW TO ITS END

BACKGROUND

On the morning of 24 February 2022, the world is facing an abrupt disturbing spillover caused by Russia beginning a full-fledged war on Ukraine?which is nothing but a rise in the expansion of the?Russo-Ukrainian War which started in 2014 but intermittently. The war caused more than lacs of human being death on both sides, which has been gradually increasing. ?It instigated Europe's?worst refugee crisis?since World II.?with an estimated 8 million people being expatriated within the country by late May as well as 7.6 million Ukrainians migrating to other countries in the first week of October 2022.?Within five weeks of the invasion, Russia encountered a massive emigration?since the 1917 October Revolution.?The global food shortages emerged as a very grave consequence. The cascading effect on price upsurge and increase of inflations to many countries. A former Soviet republic, Ukraine had deep cultural, economic, and political bonds with Russia, but the war could irreparably harm their relations.

?Chronological details of events that led to the above

Subsequent to the 2014 Ukrainian Revolution, Russia?seized Crimea, and?Russian assist insurgents?hold some of the parts of the Donbas?region of south-eastern Ukraine, which consists of Luhansk?and Donetsk, flashing a local conflict.?Ukrainian president?Volodymyr Zelensky?decreed martial law?and general mobilization. Soon after, Russia announced the seizure?of partially occupied southeastern Ukraine. After the USSR?dissolved?in 1991, the newly independent republics of Ukraine and Russia maintained ties. Ukraine agreed in 1994 to sign the?Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty?and dismantle the nuclear weapons in Ukraine?left by the USSR.?In return, Russia, the UK, and the USA approved the?Budapest Memorandum?to uphold the territorial integrity of Ukraine.?In 1999, Russia signed the?Charter for European Security, which "reaffirmed the inherent right of each and every participating state to be free to choose or change its security arrangements, including treaties of alliance". After the Soviet Union collapsed, several former Eastern Bloc?countries joined?NATO, partly due to regional security threats such as the 1993 Russian constitutional crisis, the?War in Abkhazia?(1992–1993), and the?First Chechen War (1994–1996). Russian leaders claimed?Western powers?pledged that NATO would not expand eastward, although this is disputed.

In February 2014,?Pro-Russian unrest erupted in the eastern and southern parts of Ukraine. Russian?soldiers without insignia took control of strategic positions and infrastructure in the Ukrainian territory of Crimea and?seized the Crimean Parliament by planning a controversial referendum whose outcome was for Crimea to join Russia.??The Minsk agreements?signed in September 2014 and February 2015 turned out just a ploy to halt the belligerent, but ceasefires constantly failed. Normandy Format?members France, Germany, and Ukraine disputed Minsk as an agreement between Russia and Ukraine, whereas Russia asserted Ukraine should exchange directly with the two separatist republics.?In 2021, Putin rejected proposals from Zelenskyy to hold high-level talks, and the Russian government subsequently endorsed an article by former president?Dmitry Medvedev?justifying the pointless dealing with Ukraine while it remained a "vassal" of the US.?The takeover of Crimea directed a new movement of Russian nationalism, with much of the Russian new-imperial movement aspiring to annex more Ukrainian land, including the unknown?Novorossiya.?Putin's 2014 speech after the annexation of Crimea was a?de facto?"manifesto of?Greater-Russia Irredentism.?In July 2021, Putin published an essay titled " On the Historical Unit of Russians and Ukrainians " reaffirming that Russians and Ukrainians were "one people". ?Observers labeled Putin's pursuit of imperialism, historical revisionism, and a distorted view of modern Ukraine and its history.

Putin's chief national security adviser,?Nikolai Patrushev?thought that the West had been in an undeclared war with Russia for years. Russia's reoriented national security strategy, published in May 2021, said that Russia may use "forceful methods" to "thwart or avert unfriendly actions that threaten the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Russian Federation".?Sources say the decision to invade Ukraine was made by Putin and a small group of war hawks?in Putin's inner circle, including Patrushev and Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. In the early week of??December 2021 Russia not accepted any strategies to invade, the US released intelligence, including satellite photographs of Russian troops and equipment near the Russo-Ukrainian border, that directed otherwise, and continued to precisely predict invasion events. The intelligence also said that the Russians had a list of key sites, and individuals to be killed or neutralized during the invasion.

Ukraine, like pro-Russian separatists in Donbas, has a far-right fringe, including the neo-Nazi-linked?Azov Battalion?and Right Sector?but experts have described Putin's rhetoric as greatly exaggerating the influence of far-right groups within Ukraine, but not there is no extensive agreement for the ideology in the government, military, or electorate.?Zelenskyy, who is Jewish, rebuked Putin's allegations, noting that his grandfather served in the?Soviet army?fighting German Nazis. The?US Holocaust Memorial Museum?and Yad Vashem?condemned this use of Holocaust history and allusion to Nazi ideology in propaganda. During the second build-up, Russia demanded that the US and NATO enter into a legally binding arrangement preventing Ukraine from ever joining NATO, and removing multinational forces from NATO's Eastern European member states. Russia threatened an unspecified military response if NATO followed an "aggressive line".?These demands were widely seen as non-viable; new NATO members in?Central and Eastern Europe?had joined the alliance because they preferred the safety and economic opportunities offered by NATO and the EU, and their governments sought protection from Russian irredentism. A formal treaty to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO would contravene the treaty's "??open door " policy, despite NATO's unenthusiastic response to Ukrainian requests to join. Emmanuel Macron?and?Olaf Scholz?made efforts to prevent the war in February. Macron met with Putin but failed to convince him not to go forward with the attack. Scholz warned Putin about heavy sanctions that would be imposed should he invade Ukraine. Scholz also pleaded with Zelenskyy to renounce any aspiration to join NATO and declare neutrality; however, Zelenskyy refused to do so.

Suspected clashes (17–21 February 2022)

Fighting in Donbas intensified after 17 February 2022.?Ukraine and separatists in the Donbas each accused the other of firing across the line of conflict. On 18 February, the Donetsk and Luhansk people's republics ordered emergency evacuations?of civilians,?though a BBC analysis found that the video announcing the "emergency" evacuation had been recorded two days prior to its purported date. There was a sharp increase in artillery shelling by the Russian-led militants in Donbas, which was considered by Ukraine and its allies to be an attempt to provoke the Ukrainian army or create a pretext for invasion.?On 19 February both separatist republics declared full mobilization.

In the days leading up to the invasion, the Russian government intensified a?propaganda campaign?envisioned to silence public criticism. Russian state media promoted fabricated videos (many amateurish) that?purported to show?Ukrainian forces attacking Russians in Donbas; evidence showed that the purported attacks, explosions, and evacuations were staged by Russia.?On 21 February, the head of the Russian Federal Security Service??(FSB) said that Russian forces had killed five Ukrainian "saboteurs" that had crossed into Russian territory, captured one Ukrainian serviceman, and destroyed two armored vehicles. Ukraine denied this and warned that Russia sought a pretext for an invasion. The Sunday Times?pronounced it as "the first move in Putin's war plan".

Escalation (21–23 February 2022)

On 21 February,?the Russian government recognized?the Donetsk and Luhansk people's republics. The same evening, Putin ordered Russian troops into Donbas, on what he called a “peacekeeping?mission". Several members of the?UN Security Council?condemned the 21 February intervention in Donbas; none voiced support. On 22 February, video footage shot in the early morning showed Russian armed forces and tanks moving in the Donbas region.?The?Federation Council?authorized the use of military force outside Russia. Zelenskyy called up army reservists, and Ukraine's parliament proclaimed a 30-day national state of emergency.?Russia evacuated its embassy from Kyiv. DDoS attacks widely attributed to Russian-backed hackers?hit the websites of the Ukrainian parliament and executive branch, and many bank websites also. Ukraine's?Security Service?(SBU) denied reports of Chinese military espionage on the eve of the invasion, including on nuclear infrastructure.

?On 23 February, Zelenskyy gave a speech?in Russian, appealing to Russian citizens to prevent war. He refuted Russian claims of neo-Nazis in the Ukrainian government and said that he had no intention of attacking Donbas.?Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on 23 February that separatist leaders in Donetsk and Luhansk had sent Putin a letter saying that Ukrainian shelling had caused civilian deaths and appealing for military support from Russia. Ukraine requested an urgent UN Security Council meeting.?Half an hour into the emergency meeting, Putin announced the start of military operations in Ukraine. Sergio Kyslytsya, the Ukrainian representative, called on the Russian representative, Vasily Nebenzya, to "do everything possible to stop the war" or relinquish his position as the President of the UN Security Council; Nebenzya refused.

?D-day of the invasion of Russia on Ukraine

On 24 February, before 5:00?a.m. Kyiv time, Putin announced a "special military operation" in eastern Ukraine and "effectively declared war on Ukraine." In his speech, Putin said he had no plans to occupy Ukrainian territory and that he supported the right of the Ukrainian people to self -determination.?He said the purpose of the "operation" was to "protect the people" in the predominantly Russian-speaking region of Donbas who he falsely claimed, "for eight years now had been facing humiliation and genocide perpetrated by the Kyiv regime". Putin said that Russia sought the "demilitarization and denazification" of Ukraine.?Within minutes of Putin's announcement, explosions were reported in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa, and the Donbas region.?An alleged leaked report from within the FSB?claimed that the intelligence agency was not warned of Putin's plan to invade Ukraine.?Immediately following the attack, Zelenskyy declared?martial law in Ukraine.?The same evening, he ordered a general mobilization?of all Ukrainian males between 18 and 60 years old who were prohibited from leaving the country. Russian troops entered Ukraine from the north in Belarus (towards Kyiv); from the north-east in Russia (towards Kharkiv); from the east in the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic; and from the south in Crimea. Russian equipment and vehicles were marked with a white Z military symbol?(a non-Cyrillic letter), believed to be a measure to prevent?friendly fire. Fighting took place in Luhansk Oblast near Milove village on the border with Russia at 3:40?am Kyiv time. The main infantry and tank attacks were launched in four spearhead incursions, creating a northern front launched towards Kyiv, a southern front originating in Crimea, a south-eastern front launched at the cities of Luhansk and Donbas, and an eastern front. The invasion began on 24 February, launched out of Belarus to target Kyiv, and from the northeast against the city of Kharkiv. The southeastern front was conducted as two separate spearheads, from Crimea and the southeast against Luhansk and Donetsk.

?First phase: Invasion of Ukraine (24 February – 7 April)

?Thereafter, what has been happening is brutal and cruel death of both sides, lakhs of people without any logical reason, just because of both countries' President's ego but nothing else. The destruction of assets in Ukraine displays the harm to civil infrastructures, like, schools, hospitals, residential buildings, etc. just to deter Zelensky to continue the offensive. But both sides are so adamant, just to protect their ego, destruction of properties and human lives. The made situation, lakhs of people migrate from Ukraine and became rehabilitation in refugee camps. It is a double whammy as there have already faced the grave threat of Covid-19.?During the first phase, on Northern Front, some of the incidences befallen include the Capture of Chornobyl, the Battle of Kyiv, and the Bucha massacre. The claim of offensive and counter-offensive has become normal features.

Some important events caused major harm

Russian plans for the seizure?of Kyiv?comprised a probative forefront on 24 February, from Belarus south, along the Dnipro River, west bank, seemingly to girdle the city from the west, aided by two distinct axes of attack from Russia along the Dnipro East bank, the western at?Chernihiv, and the eastern at Sumy.?Russia intended to rapidly seize Kyiv, with?Spetsnaz sneaking into the city assisted by airborne operations, and a rapid mechanized advance from the north failed because of a strong offensive by Ukraine's unrelenting soldiers.?By early March, Russian advances along the west side of the Dnipro were limited by Ukrainian defenses.?As of 5 March,?a large Russian convoy reportedly 64 kilometers (40?mi) long, had made little progress toward Kyiv. The London-based?Royal United Services Institute?(RUSI) measured Russian advances from the north and east as "stalled". Advances from Chernihiv also repelled. Russian forces continued to advance on Kyiv from the northwest, seizing?Bucha, Hostome, and Vorzel. By 5 March,?though Irpin?remained contested?as of 9 March.?By 11 March, the lengthy convoy had largely dispersed and taken cover.?On 16 March, Ukrainian forces began a counter-offensive to repel Russian forces. Unable to achieve a quick victory in Kyiv, Russian forces switched their strategy to indiscriminate bombing?and?siege?warfare.

On 25 March, a Ukrainian counter-offensive retook several towns to the east and west of Kyiv, Bucha, at the end of March. On 1 April. Ukraine recaptured the entire region around Kyiv, including Irpin, Bucha, and Hostomel, and uncovered evidence of war crimes in?Bucha.?On 6 April, NATO secretary-general, Jens Stoltenberg?said that the Russian "retraction, resupply, and redeployment" of their troops from the Kyiv area should be interpreted as an expansion of Putin's plans for Ukraine, by redeploying and concentrating his forces on Eastern Ukraine. One did occur while UN Secretary-General?Antonio Guterres?was visiting Kyiv?on 28 April to discuss with Zelenskyy the survivors of the siege of Mariupol.

North-eastern front

Russian forces advanced into Chernihiv Oblast?on 24 February and?besieged its administrative capital. The advance mired by Ukrainian forces effectively held the city, claiming more than 100 Russian armored vehicles were destroyed and dozens of soldiers were captured. The Pentagon?confirmed on 6 April that the Russian army had left Chernihiv Oblast, but Sumy Oblast remained contested.?On 7 April, the governor of Sumy Oblast said that Russian troops were gone, but left behind rigged explosives and other hazards.

?Southern Front

On 24 February, Russian forces took control of the North Crimean Canal, allowing Crimea to obtain water from the?Dnieper, cut off since 2014.?On 26 February, the?siege of Mariupol?began as the attack moved east linking to separatist-held Donbas.?En -route, Russian forces entered Berdiansk and captured. The Russian 22nd Army Corps on 26 February took control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.?A fire began, but the? IAEA subsequently said that essential equipment was undamaged.?The nuclear power plant fell under Russian control but despite the fires, it recorded no radiation leaks.?A third Russian attack group from Crimea moved northwest and captured bridges over the Dnieper. On 2 March, Russian troops won a battle at Kherson,?the first major city to fall to Russian forces in the invasion.?Russian troops moved on Mykolaiv but Ukraine forces counter-offensive on 2 March,?controlled by the DPR since 2014. After renewed missile attacks on 14 March in Mariupol, the Ukrainian government said more than 2,500 had died.?By 18 March,?Mariupol was fully seized?and fighting reached the city Centre, hampering efforts to evacuate civilians.?On 20 March, an art school sheltering around 400 people, was destroyed by Russian bombs. The Russians demanded surrender, and the Ukrainians refused.?On 24 March, Russian forces entered central Mariupol.?On 27 March, the Ukrainian deputy prime minister?informed more than 85 percent destruction of the city.

Putin told?Emmanuel Macron?in a phone call on 29 March to stop the bombardment of Mariupol if the Ukrainians surrenders.?On 1 April Russian troops refused safe passage into Mariupol to 50 buses sent by the UN to vacate civilians, as peace talks continued in Istanbul.?On 3 April, following the retreat of Russian forces from Kyiv, Russia expanded its attack on Southern Ukraine further west, with bombardment and strikes against Odesa, Mykolaiv, and the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.

Eastern Front

In the east, Russian troops?tried to seize Kharkiv, less than 35 kilometers (22?mi) from the Russian border but faced robust Ukrainian resistance.??On 25 March, the Russian defense ministry said it would seek to occupy major cities in Eastern Ukraine. On 31 March, the Ukrainian military confirmed Izium was under Russian control,?and PBS?reported renewed shelling and missile attacks in Kharkiv, as bad or worse than before, as peace talks with Russia were to resume in Istanbul. Amid the sharp Russian shelling of Kharkiv on 31 March, Russia reported a helicopter strike against an oil supply depot about y 35 KM north of the border in?Belgorod and accused Ukraine of the attack. Ukraine refused accountability.?By 7 April, the renewed massing of Russian invasion troops and tank divisions around the towns of Izium,?Sloviansk, and?Kramatorsk?prompted the Ukrainian government to advise the remaining residents near the eastern border of Ukraine to evacuate to western Ukraine within 2–3 days, given the absence of arms and munitions previously promised to Ukraine by then.

Second phase: South-Eastern front (8 April – 5 September)

On 8 April, the Russian ministry announced that all troops and divisions in south-eastern Ukraine would unite under General Aleksandr Dvornikov, who was placed in charge of combined military operations, including the units redeployed from the northern front and north-eastern fronts.?By 17 April, Russian progress on the south-eastern front appeared to be impeded by opposing Ukrainian forces in the large, heavily fortified Azovstal steel mill and surrounding area in Mariupol.?As of 30 April, a NATO official described Russian advances as "uneven" and "minor".?An anonymous US Defense Official called the Russian offensive: "very tepid", "minimal at best", and "anemic". 20 July, Lavrov announced that Russia would respond to the increased military aid being received by Ukraine from abroad as justifying the expansion of its special military operation.

Mykolaiv–Odesa front

Shelling of the key cities of Mykolaiv and Odesa continued as the second phase of the invasion began. On 22 April, Russia's Brigadier General?Rustom?in a defense ministry meeting said that Russia planned to extend its Mykolayiv–Odesa front after the siege of Mariupol further west to include?the breakaway region?of Transnistria on the Ukrainian border with Moldova. Ukraine described this intention as?imperialism saying that it contradicted previous Russian claims that it did not have territorial ambitions in Ukraine and that the statement was an admission that "the goal of the 'second phase of the war is not victory over the mythical Nazis, but simply the occupation of eastern and southern Ukraine".?Georgi Gotev, writing for Reuters on 22 April, noted that occupying Ukraine from Odesa to Transnistria would transform it into an entirely surrounded by-land nation?without access to the Black Sea.?On 24 April, Russia resumed its missile strikes on Odesa, destroying military facilities and causing two dozen civilian casualties.?During the week of 10 May, Ukrainian troops began to take military action to extricate Russian forces installing themselves on?Snake Island?in the Black Sea approximately 200 KM from Odesa.?On 30 June 2022, Russia had withdrawn troops from the island after objectives were completed.

?On 23 July, CNBC reported a Russian missile strike on Ukrainian port Odesa stating that the action was swiftly condemned by world leaders, a dramatic revelation amid a recently?UN and Turkish - brokered deal.?that secured a sea corridor for grains and other foodstuff exports.?On 31 July, CNN reported a significant intensification of the rocket attacks and bombing of Mykolaiv by Russians also killing Ukrainian grain tycoon?Oleksiy Vadaturskyi?in the city during the bombing. The Russian missile attack on a shopping mall in Kremenchuk was called a "war crime" by French president Emmanuel Macron on 28 June 2022. Russian forces continued to fire missiles and drop bombs on the key cities of?Dnipro and its International Airport, and?Zaporizhzhia.?

On 7 July, it was reported that after the Russians captured the nuclear plant at Zaporizhzhia earlier in the invasion, installed heavy artillery and mobile missile launchers between the separate reactor walls of the nuclear installation as a shield against possible Ukrainian counterattack, not possible without the risk of radiation fallout in case of near misses against the installed Russian artillery sites.?On 19 August, Russia agreed to allow IAEA inspectors access to the Zaporizhzhia plant from Ukrainian-held territory, after a phone call between the?President of France and Mr. Putin. Russia reported that 12 attacks with over 50 artillery shells explosions had been recorded at the plant and the staff town of?Energodar, by 18 August.?Also on 19 August, Tobias Elwood, chair of the UK's?Defense Select Committee said that any deliberate damage to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant that could cause radiation leaks would be a breach of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, according to which an attack on a member state of?NATO?is an attack on all of them. The next day, United States congressman Adam Kinzinger?said that any radiation leak would kill people in NATO countries, which would be an automatic activation of Article 5. ?At 12:12 pm on 25 August, the line cut off due to the fire below, disconnecting the plant and its two operating reactors from the national grid for the first time since it started operating in 1985. In response, reactor 5's backup generators and coolant pumps started up, and reactor 6 reduced generation.

Incoming power was still available via the 330 kV line to the substation at the coal-fired station, so the diesel generators were not essential for cooling reactor cores and spent fuel pools. The 750 kV line and reactor 6 resumed operation at 12:29 pm, but the line was cut by fire again two hours later. The line, but not the reactors, resumed operation again later that day.?On 26 August, one reactor restarted in the afternoon and another in the evening, resuming electricity supplies to the grid. On 29 August 2022, an IAEA team led by Rafael Grossi went to investigate the plant. ?No leaks had been reported at the plant before their arrival but shelling had occurred days before.

Fall of Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk

?A Russian missile attack on?Kramatorsk railway station?in the city of?Kramatorsk?took place on 8 April, reportedly killing at least 52?and injuring 87 to 300. On 11 April, Zelenskyy said that Ukraine expected a major new Russian offensive in the east. On 14 April, Ukrainian troops reportedly blew up a bridge between Kharkiv and Izium used by Russian forces to redeploy troops to Izium, impeding the Russian convoy.?On 18 April, with Mariupol almost entirely overtaken by Russian forces, the Ukrainian government announced that the second phase of the reinforced invasion of the Donetsk, Luhansk, and Kharkiv regions had intensified with expanded invasion forces occupying the Donbas.?On 22 May, the BBC reported that after the fall of Mariupol, Russia had intensified offensives in Luhansk and Donetsk while concentrating missile attacks and intense artillery fire on the largest city under Ukrainian control in Luhansk province.

?By 2 June,?The Washington Post?reported that Sievierodonetsk was on the brink of capitulation to Russian occupation with over 80 percent of the city in the hands of Russian troops.?On 3 June, Ukrainian forces reportedly began a counter-attack in Sievierodonetsk. By 4 June, Ukrainian government sources claimed 20% or more of the city had been recaptured.?On 12 June it was reported that possibly as many as 800 Ukrainian civilians (as per Ukrainian estimates) and 300–400 soldiers (as per Russian sources) were besieged at the?Azot?chemical factory in Severodonetsk. With the Ukrainian defenses of Severodonetsk faltering, Russian invasion troops began intensifying their attack upon the neighboring city of Lysychansk?as their next target city in the invasion.?On 20 June it was reported that Russian troops continued to tighten their grip on Severodonetsk by capturing surrounding villages and hamlets surrounding the city, most recently the village of Metelkine.

Fall of Mariupol

On 13 April, Russian forces intensified their attack on Azovstal Iron and Steelworks?in Mariupol, and the Ukrainian defense forces remained there. By 17 April, Russian forces had surrounded the factory. Ukrainian prime minister said that the Ukrainian soldiers had vowed to ignore the renewed ultimatum to surrender and to fight to the last soul.?On 20 April, Putin said that the siege of Mariupol could be considered tactically complete since the 500 Ukrainian troops entrenched in bunkers within the?Azovstal works?and estimated 1,000 Ukrainian civilians were completely sealed off from any type of relief in their siege.

After consecutive meetings with Putin and Zelenskyy, UN Secretary-General Guterres on 28 April said he would attempt to organize an emergency evacuation of survivors from Azovstal in accordance with assurances he had received from Putin on his visit to the Kremlin.?On 30 April, Russian troops allowed civilians to leave under UN protection.?By 3 May, after allowing approximately 100 Ukrainian civilians to depart from the Azovstal steel factory, Russian troops renewed non-stop bombardment of the steel factory.?On 6 May,?The Telegraph?reported that Russia had used?thermobaric bombs, also called aerosol bombs or vacuum bombs, or a fuel-air explosives.?against the remaining Ukrainian soldiers, who had lost contact with the Kyiv government; in his last communications, Zelenskyy had authorized the commander of the besieged steel factory to surrender as necessary under the pressure of increased Russian attacks.?After the last civilians evacuated from the Azovstal bunkers, nearly two thousand Ukrainian soldiers remained barricaded there, with 700 injured; they were able to communicate a plea for a military corridor to evacuate, as they expected summary execution if they surrendered to the Russians. Reports of dissent within the Ukrainian troops at Azovstal were reported by?Ukrainskaya Pravda?on 8 May indicating that the commander of the?Ukrainian Marines?assigned to defend the Azovstal bunkers made an unauthorized acquisition of tanks, munitions, and personnel, broke out from the position there and fled. The remaining soldiers spoke of a weakened defensive position in Azovstal as a result, which allowed progress to advance Russian lines of attack. Ilia Somolienko, deputy commander of the remaining Ukrainian troops barricaded at Azovstal, said: "We are basically here dead men. Most of us know this and it's why we fight so fearlessly." On 16 May, following the evacuation of Ukrainian personnel from Azovstal, Russian and DPR forces fully controlled all areas of Mariupol. The end of the battle also brought an end to the Siege of Mariupol. Russia's press secretary?and President had guaranteed that the fighters who surrendered would be treated "in accordance with international standards" while the Ukrainian President said in an address that "the work of bringing the boys home continues, and this work needs delicacy — and time". Some prominent Russian lawmakers called on the government to deny prisoner exchanges for members of the?Azov Regiment.

?Third phase: Counteroffensives and annexations (6 September?– present)

On 6 September 2022, Ukrainian forces launched a surprise counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region, beginning near Balaklava.?By 12 September, an emboldened Kyiv launched a counteroffensive in the area surrounding Kharkiv with sufficient success for Russia to publicly admit to losing key positions in the area.?The New York Times?reported on 12 September that the success of the counteroffensive dented the image of a "Mighty Putin", and led to encouraging the government in Kyiv to seek more arms from the West to sustain its counteroffensive in Kharkiv and surrounding areas. On 21 September 2022, Vladimir Putin announced a?partial mobilization.?He also said that his country will use "all means" to "defend itself". Later that day, the Ministry of Defense stated that 300,000 reservists would be called on a compulsory basis.?Mykhail Podolyak, the adviser to the president of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said that the decision was predictable, and was an attempt to justify "Russia's failures”. British Foreign Office Minister Gillian Keegan called the situation an "escalation",?while former Mongolian president Tsakhia Elbegdorj accused Russia of using Russian Mongols as "cannon fodder”. On 8 October, the Crimean Bridge?partially collapsed due to an?Explosion.?Russia later accused Ukraine of the blast and launched?retaliatory missile strikes?against Ukrainian civilian areas.

In late September 2022, Russian-installed officials in Ukraine organized referendums?on the annexation of occupied territories of Ukraine, including the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic in Russian occupied Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine, as well as the Russian-appointed military administrations of Kherson Oblast and Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Denounced by Ukraine's government and its allies as sham elections, the official results showed overwhelming majorities in favor of annexation. On 30 September 2022, Vladimir Putin announced the annexation of Ukraine's Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions in an address to both houses of the?Russian Parliament. Ukraine, the United States, the European Union, and the?UN?all condemned the annexation, as they could not do more than that.

Kherson counteroffensive

?At the start of the operation, the Ukrainian operational group "Kakhovka" and some Ukrainian officials claimed that their forces had broken through defensive lines manned by the?109th DPR Regiment?and Russian paratroopers. The 109th DPR Regiment, which was a conscript unit ( enlist compulsorily into the armed forces) that was known to serve on garrison duty in the Kherson area, was reported to have withdrawn from it. Ukrainian officials also claimed that they had hit and destroyed a large Russian base in the area?amid a general increase of Ukrainian air and artillery bombardments of Russian positions. On 6 September, Ukraine started a?second offensive in the Kharkiv area, where it achieved a rapid breakthrough. Meanwhile, Ukrainian attacks also continued along the southern frontline, though reports about territorial changes were largely unverifiable.?On 12 September, President Zelenskyy said that Ukrainian forces had retaken a total of 6,000 sq km from Russia, in both the south and the east. The BBC stated that it could not verify these claims.

In October, Ukrainian forces pushed further south towards the city of Kherson, taking control of 1,170 square kilometers of territory, with fighting extending to Dudchany.

Kharkiv counterretaliation

Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces launched another surprise counteroffensive on 6 September in the Kharkiv region, beginning near?Balaklia.?By 7 September, Ukrainian forces had advanced some 20 kilometers into Russian-occupied territory and claimed to have recaptured about 400 square kilometers. The offensive continued pushing east and by 2 October Ukrainian Armed Forces had liberated another key city in the Second Battle of Lyman.

Dnipro–Zaporizhzhia front

On 3 September 2022, an IAEA delegation visited the nuclear power plant at Zaporizhzhia and on 6 September a report was published documenting damages and threats to the plant security caused by external shelling and the presence of occupational troops in the plant. On 11 September, at 3.14 am, the sixth and final reactor was disconnected from the grid, "completely stopping" the plant. The statement from Energoatom said that "Preparations are underway for its cooling and transfer to a cold state".

Events in Crimea

?On 31 July 2022, Russian Navy Day commemorations were canceled after a drone attack reportedly wounded several people at the Russian Black Sea Fleet headquarters in Sevastopol. On 9 August 2022, there were large explosions reported at Saky Air Base in western Crimea. Satellite imagery showed that at least eight aircraft were damaged or destroyed. The cause of the explosions is unknown, but may have been long-range missiles, sabotage by special forces, or an accident; the Ukrainian commander-in-chief?claimed on 7 September that it had been a Ukrainian missile attack. On the morning of 8 October, the Kerch Bridge, which links occupied Crimea with Russia, was hit by a large explosion that collapsed part of the roadway and caused damage to the railway line.

The development of events related to the war in Russia

Darya Dugina, daughter of prominent pro-Putin follower?Aleksandr Dugin, was killed on 20 August 2022, when her car exploded on Mozhayskoye Shosse in the settlement of Bolshiye Vyazyomy?outside Moscow around 9:45 p.m. local time.?She was driving to Moscow after attending the annual festival "Tradition", which describes itself as a family festival for art lovers. The "Tradition" festival is held at the Zakharovo estate,?about 1KM north of Bolshiye Vyazyomy. Investigators said an?explosive device?was attached to the underside of the car.?It is unclear whether she was targeted deliberately, whether her father, who had been expected to travel with her but switched to another car at the last minute, was the intended target,?or whether the intention might have been to kill both.

Ukrainian resistance during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine

Ukrainian civilians resisted the Russian invasion, volunteered for territorial defense units, made Molotov cocktails, donated food, built barriers such as?Czech hedgehogs,?and helped to transport refugees.?Responding to a call from Ukraine's transportation agency,?Ukravtodor civilians dismantled or altered road signs, constructed makeshift barriers, and blocked roadways. Social media reports showed spontaneous street protests against Russian forces in occupied settlements, often evolving into verbal altercations and physical standoffs with Russian troops. By the beginning of April, Ukrainian civilians began to organize as guerrillas, mostly in the wooded north and east of the country. The Ukrainian military announced plans to launch a large-scale guerrilla campaign to complement its conventional defense against the Russian invasion.

People physically blocked Russian military vehicles, sometimes forcing them to retreat. The Russian soldiers' response to unarmed civilian resistance varied from reluctance to engage the protesters to fire into the air or directly into crowds. There have been mass detentions of Ukrainian protesters, and Ukrainian media reported forced disappearances, mock executions, hostage-taking,?extrajudicial killing, and sexual violence perpetrated by the Russian military. To facilitate Ukrainian attacks, civilians reported Russian military positions via Telegram, chatbot,?and Diia a Ukrainian government app previously used by citizens to upload official identity and medical documents. In response, Russian forces began destroying mobile phone network equipment, searching door-to-door for smartphones and computers, and in at least one case killing a civilian found with pictures of Russian tanks.

LIST OF FOREIGN AID UKRAINE DURING THE RUSSO-UKRAINIAN

?Iran?has provided Russia with military aid.?U.S. Intelligence sources say?North Korea?has delivered military aid, but Russia and North Korea deny this. The UK also began to supply Ukraine with NLAW?and Javelin anti-tank weapons. After the invasion, NATO member states including Germany agreed to supply weapons, but NATO as an organization did not.?NATO and its members also refused to send troops into Ukraine, or to create a no-fly-zone, lest this sparks a larger-scale war, a decision some labeled pacification.?

On 26 February, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken?announced $350?million in lethal military assistance, including anti-armor and anti-aircraft systems.?The next day the EU stated that it would purchase €450?million (US$502?million) in mortal assistance and also €50?million ($56?million) in non-lethal supplies for Ukraine, with Poland's supervised supply.?In 1st week of the invasion, NATO member states supplied more than 17,000 anti-tank weapons to Ukraine;?by mid-March, the number was estimated to be more than 20,000. In three tranches agreed upon in February, March, and April 2022, the European Union committed to €1.5?billion to aid to enhance the capabilities and flexibility of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the protection of the Ukrainian civilian, under the purview of the European Peace Facility line.

As of 11 April, Ukraine had gotten about 25,000 anti-air and 60,000 anti-tank weapon systems from the US and its allies. The following day, Russia supposedly got anti-tank missiles and RPGs from Iran, supplied through undercover networks via Iraq. On 19 April 2022, Romania proclaimed a strategic modification to the government decree that adjusts the export of military weapons and national defense products to provide these weapons not only to?NATO?allies but also to Ukraine. The Ministry of Defense developed the draft decree which states that the reason behind this decision was Russia's belligerence against Ukraine. However, on 27 April Defense Minister Vasile Dincu?said that the said plan dropped. On 26 April, the US arranged a conference in which government representatives of more than 40 countries met at the???Ramstein Air Base?to discuss military support for Ukraine.

On 28 April, US President Biden asked?Congress?for an extra $33?billion to assist Ukraine, together with $20?billion to give weapons to Ukraine.?On 5 May, Ukraine's Prime Minister?Denys Shmyhal?broadcasted that Ukraine had received more than $12?billion worth of weapons and financial aid from Western countries since the start of Russia's invasion on 24 February.?On 10 May, the House?passed legislation that would provide $40?billion in new aid to Ukraine. After the legislation was approved by the Senate, Biden signed the legislation on 21 May. On 10 June, an official from the Ukrainian military said that they were using 5,000 to 6,000 artillery rounds per day and were then using 155-calibre NATO standard shells because all their Soviet-era guns had been wrecked. The official said the Russians had converted the war into an artillery duel focused on the southeast of the country. On 12 June, a Ukrainian Presidential advisor put on Twitter a list of weapons that Ukraine needs to achieve "heavy weapons parity". The top item is "1000 howitzers caliber 155 mm”. Ukraine claims it has enough 155?mm ammunition but lacks the artillery to use it. In June 2022 Germany derestricted its list of military aid to Ukraine. By 21 July 2022, the?EUCOM?Control Center-Ukraine/International Donor Coordination Centre, a joint cell that formed in March 2022, had trained 1,500 Ukrainian Armed Forces members on coalition-donated equipment. For the 16 US-supplied HIMARS systems in Ukraine (2 August 2022), the US is providing more in munitions (additional HIMARS rocket pods in monthly installments, as well as more 155-mm howitzer shells) at a cost of $550 million for the 17th Presidential drawdown package. On 28 September 2022, the US department of defense announced a USAI (Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative) package worth up to $1.1 billion which will purchase 18 additional HIMARS systems and their associated rockets from vendors in the future.?As of 28 September 16, HIMARS systems drawn from the US and an additional 10 equivalent systems from the allies are in service in Ukraine. This USAI package also includes 150 Humvees, 150 tactical vehicles, 20 multi-mission radars, explosive ordnance disposal equipment, body armor, tactical secure communications systems, surveillance systems, and optics.?Training for Ukrainian troops, maintenance, and sustainment are included in this long-term package, currently totaling $16.2 billion in aid since the beginning of the 2022 invasion.

?Lend-Lease for Ukraine

On 1 October 2022, lend – Lease for Ukraine came into effect.?A proposal to administer US security assistance as part of EUCOM?is under consideration at?the Pentagon.?This plan would systematize the services currently being provided to Ukraine on an?ad hoc?basis and would provide a long-term vehicle for countering Russian plans under the provisions of the Lend-Lease act,?and for coordinating Allied aid for Ukraine's defense with Ukrainian requests at a single point of contact in Wiesbaden, Germany. On 4 October 2022 the 22nd Presidential drawdown from US stocks to Ukraine, $625 million in security assistance, included a tailored package: 4 more?HIMARS?systems and their associated rockets; 16 more?M777?155mm howitzers and 75,000 155mm rounds; 500 M982 Excalibur?precision-guided 155mm rounds; 1,000 155mm rounds of remote anti-armor mine systems; 16 more 105mm?M119 Howitzers; 30,000 120?mm mortar rounds; 200 mine-resistant, ambush-protected vehicles (MRAPs); 200,000 rounds of small arms ammunition; and?Claymore mines. The package responds to current Ukrainian ammunition consumption rates during their latest offensives; more aid is forthcoming according to?Laura Cooper, a US DoD deputy assistant secretary of defense.?So far, the security assistance has a total of $16.8 billion to Ukraine.

AID IN THE CONSTRUCTION OF A MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEM

Missile defense of Ukraine is arriving piecemeal; on 12 October 2022, in Brussels, US Army General Mark Milley?advised the Ukraine Defense Contact Group that the allies of Ukraine "chip in to help Ukraine rebuild and sustain an integrated air and missile defense system" from the contributed air and missile defense system materiel. Specifically, Ukraine will need to link together and integrate the existing materiel and radars with " command and control”?and communication systems".

Foreign military involvement

Although NATO and the EU have publicly taken a strict policy of "no boots on the ground" in support of the Russian invasion of Ukraine,?the United States has significantly increased the secret involvement of special operations military and CIA?operatives in support of Ukrainian forces since the beginning of the invasion.?Ukraine's foreign minister stated that as of 6 March, approximately 20,000 foreign nationals from 52 countries have volunteered to fight.?Most of these volunteers joined the newly created International Legion of Territorial Defense of Ukraine.

FOREIGN SANCTIONS AND RAMIFICATIONS

?Western countries?and others imposed limited sanctions on Russia when it recognized Donbas as an independent nation. When the attack began, many other countries applied sanctions intended to cripple the Russian economy. The sanctions targeted individuals, banks, businesses, monetary exchanges, bank transfers, exports, and imports. The sanctions cut major Russian banks from SWIFT, the global messaging network for international payments, but left some limited access to ensure the continued ability to pay for gas shipments. Sanctions also included asset freezes on the Russian Central Bank, which holds $630?billion in?foreign exchange reserves?to prevent it from offsetting the impact of sanctions,?and froze the Nord Stream 2?gas pipeline.?By 1 March, total Russian assets frozen by sanctions amounted to $1?trillion.

IMF said d that the conflict posed a substantial economic risk both regionally and internationally. The IMF could help other countries affected, she said, in addition to the $2.2?billion loan package for Ukraine.?WBG warned of far-reaching economic and social effects and reported that the bank was preparing options for significant economic and fiscal support to Ukraine and the region. Economic sanctions affected Russia from the first day of the invasion, with its stock market?falling by up to 39%. The Russian Ruble?fell to record lows, and Russians rushed to exchange currency. Stock exchanges in Moscow and Saint Petersburg closed until at least 18 March,?the longest closure in Russia's history. On 26 February, S&P?downgraded the Russian government?credit rating?to "junk", causing funds that require investment-grade bonds to dump Russian debt, making further borrowing very difficult for Russia.?On 11 April, S&P Global placed Russia under "selective default" on its foreign debt for insisting on payments in rubles.?Dozens of corporations, including Unilever, McDonald, Coca-Cola, Starbucks Hermes, Chanel, and?Prada?closed business in Russia.

Prisoners of war

?Official statistics and estimates of prisoners of war?(POW) have varied.?In the initial stages of the invasion, on 24 February, Oksana Markarova, Ukraine's ambassador to the US, said that a platoon of the 74th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade?from Kemerovo Oblast?gave up, saying they were unaware that they had been brought to Ukraine and tasked with killing Ukrainians.?Russia claimed to have captured 572 Ukrainian soldiers by 2 March 2022,?while Ukraine claimed 562 Russian soldiers were being held as prisoners as of 20 March,?with 10 previously reported released in a prisoner exchange for five Ukrainian soldiers and the mayor of Melitopol. ?A report by?The Independent?on 9 June cited an intelligence report estimating that more than 5,600 Ukrainian soldiers had been captured, while the number of Russian servicemen being held as prisoners had fallen to 550, from 900 in April, following several prisoner exchanges. In contrast, the Ukrayinska Pravda?newspaper claimed 1,000 Russian soldiers were being held as prisoners as of 20 June.

?THE IMPACT OF SPILLOVER OF WAR

The war caused the largest refugee and humanitarian crisis?within Europe since the?Yugoslav?in the 1990s;?the UN described it as the fastest-growing such crisis since World War II. In December 2021, the Ukrainian defense minister estimated that an invasion could force three to five million people to flee their homes. In the first week of the invasion, the UN reported over a million refugees had fled Ukraine; this subsequently rose to over 7,405,590 by 24 September, a reduction from over eight million due to some refugees' return. On 20 May, NPR reported that, following a substantial influx of foreign military equipment into Ukraine, a significant number of refugees are seeking to return to regions of Ukraine which are relatively secluded from the invasion front in south-eastern Ukraine. However, by 3 May, another 8?million people were evacuated inside Ukraine. Most refugees were women, children, the elderly, or people with disabilities.?Most male Ukrainian nationals aged 18 to 60 were denied exit from Ukraine as part of mandatory conscription?unless they were responsible for the financial support of three or more children, were single fathers or were the parent/guardian of children with disabilities.?Many Ukrainian men, including teenagers, in any case, opted to remain in Ukraine to join the resistance.

Regarding destinations, according to the UN High Commission for Refugees, as of 13 May, there were 3,315,711 refugees in Poland, 901,696 in Romania, 594,664 in Hungary, 461,742 in Moldova, 415,402 in Slovakia, and 27,308 in Belarus, while Russia reported it had received over 800,104 refugees.?As of 23 March, over 300,000 refugees had arrived in the Czech Republic.?Turkey has been another significant destination, registering more than 58,000 Ukrainian refugees as of 22 March, and more than 58,000 as of 25 April.?The EU invoked the Temporary Protection Directive?for the first time in its history, granting Ukrainian refugees the right to live and work in the EU for up to three years.

Ukraine has accused Russia of forcibly moving?civilians to a " filtration camps" in Russian-held territory, and then into Russia. Ukrainian sources have compared this policy to Soviet-era population transfers?and Russian actions in the Chechen war of Independence.?As of 8 April, Russia claimed to have evacuated about 121,000 Mariupol residents to Russia.?RIA Novosti and Ukrainian officials said that thousands were dispatched to various centers in cities in Russia and Russian-occupied Ukraine,?from which people were sent to economically depressed regions of Russia. In April, Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council secretary Oleksiy Danilov?said Russia planned to build "concentration camps" for Ukrainians in western Siberia, and that it likely planned to force prisoners to build new cities in Siberia. A second refugee crisis created by the invasion and by the Russian government's suppression of human rights has been the flight of more than?300000 Russian political refugees and economic migrants, the largest?exodus?from Russia since the October Revolution?of 1917, to countries such as the Baltic states, Finland, Georgia, Turkey, and Central Asia.?By 22 March, it was estimated that between 50,000 and 70,000 high-tech workers had left the country and that 70,000 to 100,000 more might follow. Fears arose in Russia over the effect of this?flight of talent?on economic development.?Some Russian refugees sought to oppose Putin and help Ukraine from outside their country?and some faced discrimination for being Russian.?There has also been an exodus of millionaires. On 6 May,?The Mosco Times, citing data from the FSB, reported that almost four million Russians had left the country, although this figure included travelers for business or tourism.?Russia's partial mobilization of 300,000 men in September prompted an initial 200,000 more Russians to flee the country,?rising to 400,000 by early October, double the number of those conscripted.

?Humanitarian impact

The Humanitarian Impact of the invasion has been extensive and has included negative impacts on international food supplies and the 2022 food crisis.?The invasion has also had a negative impact on the cultural heritage of Ukraine. The invasion received widespread public condemnation internationally, while in some countries, certain sectors expressed sympathy or outright support for Russia due in part to distrust of US foreign policy.?Protests and demonstrations were held worldwide, including some in Russia and parts of Ukraine occupied by Russia. Calls for a boycott of Russian goods?spread on social media platforms, while hackers attacked Russian websites, particularly those operated by the Russian government.??Anti- Russian sentiment?against Russians living abroad surged after the invasion.

THE STATUS AS IT STANDS TODAY.

Civilians in the southern Kherson region have started to flee to Russia amid Ukrainian advances, and evacuees were expected to begin arriving there on Friday. A Russian-installed official suggested residents should leave?for safety, a sign of Moscow’s weakening hold on territory it claims to have annexed. A Russian region adjoining Ukraine said it was?preparing to receive refugees?from the Russian-held part of Kherson. Ukraine’s armed forces have retaken more than 600 settlements in the past month, including 75 in the strategic Kherson region, the government said. The governor of a Russian border region accused Ukraine of shelling an apartment block, but a Kyiv official said a stray Russian missile was to blame – one of a series of apparent attacks on Russian towns. Russian missiles hit the Ukrainian port of Mykolaiv. A five-story residential building was hit, the two upper floors completely destroyed, the mayor said. Three drones attacked the small town of Makarov, west of the capital Kyiv, with officials saying critical infrastructure facilities were hit by Iran-made drones. NATO said?it will closely monitor?an expected Russian nuclear exercise but will not be cowed into dropping support for?Ukraine. Zelenskyy accused the International Committee of the Red Cross of inaction?in upholding the rights of Ukrainian prisoners of war and urged it to undertake a mission to Olenivka – a notorious camp in eastern?Ukraine.

Diplomacy

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov was quoted as saying in Izvestia newspaper that the goals of Russia’s “special military operation” could be achieved through negotiations. The leaders of Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, are meeting for the CIS summit in Astana. Putin is scheduled to take part in the first Russia-Central Asia summit later on Friday.

Economy

Russia has submitted concerns to the United Nations about an agreement on Black Sea grain exports and is prepared to reject renewing a deal next month unless its demands are addressed, Russia’s UN ambassador in Geneva told Reuters. Putin courted Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan with a plan to pump more Russian gas via Turkey, turning it into a new supply “hub”, bidding to preserve Russia’s energy leverage over Europe.

ASSISTANCE TO BE GIVEN TO UKRAINE

More than 50 Western countries meet in Brussels and promise more weapons for Ukraine, especially air defense systems. While NATO leaders discuss nuclear preparedness during a closed-door meeting, Moscow warns against Western involvement. A country breakdown of the UN General Assembly vote rejecting Russia’s annexations in Ukraine.

UKRAINE: CONFLICT AT THE CROSSROADS OF EUROPE AND RUSSIA

Ukraine’s Westward drift since independence has been countered by the sometimes-violent tug of Russia, felt most recently with Putin’s 2022 invasion.???Ukraine has long played an important, yet sometimes overlooked, role in the global security order. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 marked a dramatic escalation of the countries’ eight-year-old conflict and a historic turning point for European security. After six months, many defenses and foreign policy analysts cast the war as a major strategic blunder by Russian President Vladimir Putin, and one that has put his long-time rule under threat.??

The acknowledgment of the impact of a perilous climb, which could include Russia’s use of a nuclear weapon. The war has hastened Ukraine’s push to join Western political blocs, including the European Union (EU) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Ukraine was a cornerstone of the Soviet Union, the archrival of the United States during the Cold War. Behind only Russia, it was the second-most-populous and -powerful of the fifteen Soviet republics, home to much of the union’s agricultural production, defense industries, and military, including the Black Sea Fleet and some of the nuclear arsenal. Ukraine was so vital to the union that its decision to sever ties in 1991 proved to be a coup de grace for the ailing superpower. In its three decades of independence, Ukraine has sought to stand its own path as a sovereign state while looking to align most closely with Western institutions, including the EU?and NATO. Kyiv resisted stabilizing its foreign relations and to bridge?deep internal divisions. A more nationalist, Ukrainian-speaking population in western parts of the country generally supported greater integration with Europe, while a mostly Russian-speaking community in the east favored closer ties with Russia.

?UKRAINE AT A GLANCE

Area:?603,550 square kilometers (the largest country in Europe, excluding Russia)?Population: 44 million (2021)?Religions: Orthodox Christianity, Catholicism, Protestantism, Primary languages: Ukrainian (official), Russian, Form of government: Semi Presidential republic, and GDP: ?$200 billion (2021) GDP per capita$4,836 (2021).

?Russia has deep cultural, economic, and political bonds with Ukraine, and in many ways, Ukraine is central to Russia’s identity and vision for itself in the world. Russia and Ukraine have strong familial bonds that go back centuries. Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, is sometimes referred to as “the mother of Russian cities,” on par in terms of cultural influence with Moscow and St. Petersburg. It was in Kyiv in the 8th and 9th centuries that Christianity was carried from Byzantium to the Slavic peoples. And it was Christianity that served as the anchor for Kievan Rus, the early Slavic state from which modern Russians, Ukrainians, and Belarussians draw their lineage. Approximately eight million ethnic Russians were living in Ukraine as of 2001, according to a census taken that year, mostly in the south and east. Moscow claimed a duty to protect these people as a pretext for its actions in Crimea and the Donbas in 2014. After the Soviet ruin, many Russian politicians viewed the divorce from Ukraine as a mistake of history and a threat to Russia’s standing as a great power. Losing a permanent hold on Ukraine, and letting it fall into the Western orbit, would be seen by many as a major blow to Russia’s international prestige. In 2022, Putin cast the escalating war with Ukraine as a part of a broader struggle against Western powers he says are intent on destroying Russia.

Crimea and Trade

Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev transferred Crimea from Russia to Ukraine in 1954 to strengthen the “brotherly ties between the Ukrainian and Russian peoples.” However, since the fall of the union, many Russian nationalists in both Russia and Crimea longed for a return to the peninsula. The city of Sevastopol is the home port for Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, the dominant maritime force?in the region. Russia was for a long time Ukraine’s largest trading partner, although this link is shrunken vividly in recent years. China ultimately surpassed Russia in Trade?with Ukraine. Prior to its invasion of Crimea, Russia had hoped to pull Ukraine into its single market, the Eurasian Economic Union, which today includes Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan.

Energy and Political sway

Russia relied on Ukrainian pipelines to pump its gas to customers in Central and Eastern Europe for decades, and it paid Kyiv billions of dollars per year in transit fees. The flow of Russian gas through Ukraine continued in late 2022?despite the conflicts between the two countries, but volumes were reduced and the pipeline remained in serious jeopardy. Russia was keen to preserve its political influence in Ukraine and thru the former Soviet Union, mainly after its preferred candidate for Ukrainian president in 2004, Viktor Yanukovych, lost to a reformist competitor as part of the Orange Revolution popular movement. This shock to Russia’s interests in Ukraine came after a similar electoral defeat for the Kremlin in Georgia in 2003, known as the Rose Revolution, and was followed by another—the Tulip Revolution—in Kyrgyzstan in 2005. Yanukovych later became president of Ukraine, in 2010, amid voter discontent with the orange government.

WHAT TRIGGERED RUSSIA’S MOVES IN CRIMEA AND THE DONBAS IN 2014?

It was Ukraine’s ties with the EU that sparked a fire in Russia in 2013–14. In late 2013, President Yanukovych, acting under pressure from his supporters in Moscow, sparred plans to formalize a closer economic relationship with the EU. Russia had at the same time been pressing Ukraine to join the not-yet-formed EAEU. Many Ukrainians apparent Yanukovych’s decision as a betrayal by a deeply corrupt and inept government, and it ignited countrywide protests known as Euromaidan. Putin framed the ensuing tumult of Euromaidan, which forced Yanukovych from power, as a Western-backed “fascist coup” that endangered the ethnic Russian majority in Crimea. Western leaders sacked this as untrue publicity suggestive of the Soviet era. In response, Putin ordered a covert invasion of Crimea that he later justified as a rescue operation. “There is a limit to everything. And with Ukraine, our western partners have crossed the line,” Putin said in a March 2014 address?validating the takeover.

Putin employed a similar description to defend his support for separatists in southeastern Ukraine, another region home to large numbers of ethnic Russians and Russian speakers. He famously referred to the area as Novorossiya (New Russia), a term dating back to eighteenth-century imperial Russia. Armed Russian agitators including some agents of Russian security services are believed to have played a central role in stirring the anti-Euromaidan secessionist movements in the region into a rebellion. However, unlike Crimea, Russia continued to officially deny its involvement in the Donbas conflict until it launched its wider invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Why did Russia launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022?

Some Western analysts see Russia’s 2022 invasion as the zenith of the Kremlin’s growing dislike toward NATO’s post–Cold War expansion into the former Soviet sphere of influence. Russian leaders, including Putin, have alleged that the United States and NATO frequently violated pledges they made?in the early 1990s to not expand the alliance into the former Soviet bloc. They view NATO’s expansion during this tumultuous period for Russia as a humiliating imposition about which they could do little but watch.

NATO’S EXPANDING MEMBERSHIP

Founded in 1949 promoter members

Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, United Kingdom, United States, Greece, Turkey (1955), West Germany (1982), Spain (1990), Germany (1999), Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland (2004), Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia (2009), Albania, Croatia (2017), Montenegro (2020), North Macedonia (2022) Finland, Sweden. *German reunification in 1990 resulted in what was formerly East Germany becoming part of NATO. The map shows West and East Germany. In the weeks leading up to NATO’s 2008 summit, President Vladimir Putin warned US diplomats?that steps to bring Ukraine into the alliance “would be a hostile act toward Russia.” Months later, Russia went to war with Georgia, seemingly showcasing Putin’s willingness to use force to secure his country’s interests. Some independent observers faulted Georgia?for initiating the so-called August War but blamed Russia for escalating hostilities. Despite remaining a nonmember, Ukraine grew its ties with NATO in the years leading up to the 2022 invasion. Ukraine held annual military exercises with the alliance and,?in 2020, became one of just six enhanced opportunity partners, a special status for the bloc’s closest nonmember allies. Moreover, Kyiv affirmed its goal to eventually gain full NATO membership. In the weeks leading up to its invasion, Russia made several prime security demands?of the United States and NATO, including that they cease expanding the alliance, seek Russian consent for certain NATO arrangements, and remove U.S. nuclear weapons from Europe. Alliance leaders responded that they were open to new diplomacy but were unwilling to discuss shutting NATO’s doors to new members.

?Experts deciphered that possibly the most important inspiring factor for Putin was his fear that Ukraine would continue to advance into a modern, Western-style democracy that would certainly dent his autocratic regime in Russia and sprint his hopes of reconstruction of a Russia-led sphere of influence in Eastern Europe. “[Putin] wants to?destabilize Ukraine, frighten Ukraine,” writes historian Anne Applebaum in the?Atlantic. “He wants Ukrainian democracy to fail. He wants the Ukrainian economy to collapse. He wants foreign investors to flee. He wants his neighbors—in Belarus, Kazakhstan, even Poland, and Hungary—to doubt whether democracy will ever be viable, in the longer term, in their countries too.”

What are Russia’s objectives in Ukraine?

Putin’s Russia has been described as a revanchist power, keen to regain its former power and prestige. “It was always Putin’s goal to restore Russia to the status of a great power in northern Eurasia,” writes Gerard Toal, an international affairs professor at Virginia Tech, in his book Near Abroad. “The end goal was not to re-create the Soviet Union but to make Russia great again.” In n July 2021, Putin, amidst, other remarks, Putin designated Russians and Ukrainians as “one people” who effectively occupy “the same historical and spiritual space.” ?Most security analysts see little chance for diplomacy in the months ahead, as both sides have strong motives to continue the fight.??

What have been U.S. priorities in Ukraine?

?Washington’s priority was pushing Ukraine along with Belarus and Kazakhstan to lose t its nuclear arsenal so that only Russia would retain the former union’s weapons. At the same time, the United States rushed to bolster the shaky democracy in Russia. Former U.S. National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski, in Foreign Affairs in early 1994, described a healthy and stable Ukraine as a vital counterpoise to Russia?and the cornerstone of what he advocated should be the new U.S. grand strategy after the Cold War. “It cannot be stressed strongly enough that without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be an empire, but with Ukraine persuaded and then of a lesser order. Russia inevitably becomes an empire,” he wrote. In the months after Brzezinski’s article was published, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Russia pledged via the Budapest Referendum to respect Ukraine’s independence and sovereignty in return for it becoming a non-nuclear state.

Twenty years later, as Russian forces seized Crimea, restoring and strengthening Ukraine’s sovereignty reemerged as a top U.S. and EU foreign policy priority. Following the 2022 invasion, U.S. and NATO allies dramatically increased defense, economic, and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine, as well as ramped up their sanctions on Russia. However, Western leaders have been careful to avoid actions they believe will draw their countries into the war or otherwise escalate it, which could, in the extreme, pose a nuclear threat.??

What are U.S. and EU policies in Ukraine?

The USA remains steadfast in the repair of Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty. It does not recognize Russia’s claims to Crimea or the other regions unlawfully annexed by Russia. Prior to the 2022 invasion, the United States supported a settlement of the Donbas conflict via the Minsk agreements. Western powers and their partners have taken many steps to increase aid to Ukraine and punish Russia for its 2022 offensive. As of October, the United States has provided Ukraine $17 billion in security assistance, including advanced rocket and missile systems, helicopters, and lethal drones. Several NATO allies are providing similar security aid. The Group of Eight, now known as the Group of Seven, suspended Russia from its ranks indefinitely in 2014. The invasion also cost Russia its long-awaited Nord Stream 2 pipeline after Germany suspended its regulatory approval in February. Many critics, including U.S. and Ukrainian officials, opposed the natural gas pipeline during its development, claiming it would give Russia greater political leverage over Ukraine and the European gas market. In August, Russia indefinitely suspended operations of Nord Stream 1, which provided the European market with as much as a third of its natural gas.

What do Ukrainians want?

Russia’s aggression in recent years has galvanized public support for Ukraine’s Westward leanings. In the wake of Euromaidan, the country elected as president the billionaire businessman Petro Poroshenko, a staunch proponent of EU and NATO integration. In 2019, Zelensky defeated Poroshenko in a sign of the public’s deep dissatisfaction with the political establishment and its halting battle against corruption and an oligarchic economy. Before the 2022 offensive, polls indicated that Ukrainians held mixed views on NATO and EU membership. Crimea and the contested regions in the east supported EU membership, while 40 to 50 percent were in favor of joining NATO.

Just days after the invasion, President Zelenskyy requested that the EU put Ukraine on a fast track to membership. The country became an official candidate in June, but experts caution?that the membership process could take years. In September, Zelenskyy submitted a formal application for Ukraine?to join NATO, pushing for an accelerated admission process for that bloc as well. Many Western analysts say that similar to Ukraine’s EU bid, NATO membership does not seem likely in the near term.

????Ukraine Latest: Putin Says No More Mass Strikes Needed ‘For Now

Vladimir Putin said he has no regrets about the invasion of Ukraine, well into its eighth month, and that Mosco’s aim is not to destroy its neighbor Putin also said a direct clash with NATO troops would be catastrophic and that no further mass strikes on Ukraine are planned “for now,” days after missiles hit cities across the country. Russia’s leader said he doesn’t see a “need” for talks with US President Joe Biden at next month’s Group of 20 summits.?NATO allies must press ahead with support for Ukraine while taking Russia’s threats to use nuclear weapons seriously, German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht said. The Kremlin vowed to repair a crucial bridge from the Russian mainland to Crimea by July 2023. ?Russia struck the city of Zaporizhzhia with three S-300 missiles early on Friday, damaging infrastructure, regional authorities said on Telegram. Moscow’s troops are focusing on attempts to reach the administrative border of the Donetsk region and hold ground in occupied areas of the Kherson, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Mykolaiv regions, according to Ukraine’s General Staff.?

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Ukraine Reopens Kyiv-Kramatorsk Rail Connection

Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov said Ukraine’s rail service from Kyiv to Kramatorsk, a major city in the Donetsk region, was being restarted as a result of a “significantly improved” security situation.?Ukrainian Troops Liberated 29 settlements in Kherson Region and repel attack in the East: officials. “Talks on weapons deliveries continue and there is progress,” Ukraine Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said in comments on TV. Ukraine will get the German IRIS-T complex soon and its troops are training on the system, he said. Several Nasams air defense systems will be delivered this month and training is already underway.?“Russia has around 300 Iranian drones and seeks to receive more,” while Kyiv’s troops are learning how to shoot down the drones, Resnikov said.?

Lithuania Gets US Battalion Deployment Through 2025

A US battalion will remain in Lithuania through 2025 after approval of a rotational force plan in Washington, Lithuanian Defense Minister Arvydas Anusauskas said after talks with US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin. The US has been rotating a full combat battalion and reinforcement units in Lithuania since 2019. Additional US troops have been deployed there this year in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Erdogan Agrees with Putin to Set Up Gas Hub in Turkey

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan agreed with his Russian counterpart to establish an international gas distribution hub in Turkey. Erdogan said the Thrace region, Turkey’s door to Europe, is the most suitable place for it and the work will start without delay.?Putin introduced the idea of turning Turkey into a “gas hub” on Tuesday at the Russian Energy Week forum in Moscow. Moscow plans to transfer to the Black Sea volumes lost from the suspension of service on, and blast damage to, the Nord Stream pipeline in the Baltic Sea.

IAEA Chief ‘Moving Closer’ to Zaporizhzhia Security Zone?

Rafael Mariano Grossi, chief of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said he’s “moving closer to the establishment of a protection zone” for the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant as he left Ukraine. Grossi held talks this week with Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.?“The plant's situation is untenable and we need immediate action to protect it,” Grossi said.?

Russia Orders Crimea Bridge Repaired by July 2023

Work to restore a flagship Russian bridge to Crimea damaged by an explosion must be completed by July 1, according to a government document signed by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin. The 19-kilometer (12-mile) span across the Kerch Strait is the only road and rail link from Russia to the Black Sea peninsula Putin annexed in 2014. Moscow blamed Ukrainian military intelligence for the Oct. 8 blast on the bridge, which has been critical for the Kremlin to resupply its forces in Crimea and Ukraine’s southern Kherson region.

Ukraine Expected to Get 5B Euros from EU in Three Tranches

The EU is set to release 2 billion euros ($1.95 billion) in funds to Ukraine within days, with further tranches of €2.5 billion euros and €500 million in the 2nd half of November and December respectively, according to the people familiar with the matter. The funds are part of a €9 billion financial assistance package that the bloc first announced in the spring. The payments have been mostly delayed due to wrangling between member countries over the terms of the package.

Musk expressed his inability to continue helping Fund Starlink in Ukraine Indefinitely

Elon Musk warned SpaceX?cannot indefinitely help carry the cost of high-speed broadband internet for Ukraine. His comments came days after a furor over his comments suggesting Kyiv cede territory in exchange for peace with Russia. SpaceX “is not asking to recoup past expenses” on Starlink services in Ukraine, Musk said on Twitter, but it also cannot sustain the financial support or send thousands more terminals to Ukraine. The Starlink terminals in Ukraine are using data as much as 100 times the number of typical households, Musk added.?A week ago, he tweeted that Starlink in Ukraine had cost SpaceX $80 million, which would likely surpass $100 million by the end of the year.?

?Zelenskiy Calls for Red Cross Mission to POW Camp

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky said a Red Cross mission should have access to Ukrainian prisoners of war held in Olenivka, in occupied Donetsk. An explosion there killed at least 50 prisoners and wounded more in July, and Ukrainian intelligence described the episode as a provocation by Russian forces.?Olenivka is “de facto a concentration camp, where Ukrainians are kept,” Zelensky said in his evening address. “There must be accessible to them, as discussed. The Red Cross is able to provide it. But there must be attempts to provide it.” Sirens sound across Ukraine as Russia strikes cities again; G-7 leaders vow to help for ‘as long as its takes.

The Black Sea Grain Initiative

The Black Sea Grain Initiative, a deal among Ukraine, Russia, the United Nations, and Turkey, said the vessels are carrying 174,862 metric tons of grain and other crops. Two ships are destined for Turkey and are carrying wheat and sunflower oil. One ship will depart from Ukraine’s Yuzhny-Pivdennyi port for Italy and is carrying 26,380 metric tons of corn. Another ship will leave from Chornomorsk to Italy and is carrying 6,000 metric tons of corn. The fifth vessel will sail to Indonesia from Chornomorsk and is carrying 51,742 metric tons of wheat. One ship will leave for Tunisia carrying 30,000 metric tons of corn and another will depart for Spain carrying 27, 390 metric tons of wheat.

U.S. Treasury Secretary vows to impose more sanctions, oil price caps on Russia

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen pledged continued support for Ukraine in a meeting with Finance Minister Sergii Marchenko, saying the Biden administration was looking for more ways to cripple the Russian economy with sanctions, a cap on oil prices, and support for Ukraine’s rebuilding efforts. “Importantly, the focus of our sanctions and export controls on Russia’s military-industrial complex have disrupted Russia’s operations, shuttered factories, depleted arsenals, and forced Putin to rely increasingly on arms suppliers of last resort, like North Korea and Iran,” Yellen said ahead of her meeting with Marchenko at the IMF and World Bank’s weeklong meetings in Washington, D.C. earlier Tuesday. “Together with the G7, the United States will build on that work with our price cap on Russian oil, which will cut into Putin’s key source of revenue even as we mitigate future price spikes caused by Putin’s war,” she added. Yellen said she wanted to discuss with Marchenko ways the global sanctions coalition can inflict more economic pain on the Kremlin, Russia’s allies, its public finances, and military industries, according to her comments released by the Treasury Department. “We are committed to supporting Ukraine in meeting its winter preparedness needs.” U.S. President Joe Biden affirmed the group’s stance in a tweet following the meeting. He said that he and the G-7 leaders will keep their “unwavering commitment to hold Russia accountable for its war and support Ukraine for as long as it takes.”

NATO

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg criticized Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent missile strikes across Ukraine and said the attack shows Moscow’s desperation to regain its footing as Ukrainian forces continue a stunning counteroffensive. “President Putin is failing in Ukraine,” NATO added that Putin’s attempts to annex additional portions of Ukraine, reckless nuclear rhetoric, and a partial mobilization of additional troops were also examples that “this war is not going as planned.” Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin will travel to Brussels this week to participate in the NATO Defense Ministerial meeting at the alliance’s headquarters. The defense ministers of Finland and Sweden will join the NATO summit as invitees as they await their accession into the military alliance. Following NATO, Austin and U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley will host a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group. The group, a coalition of nearly 50 countries supporting Ukraine’s military needs, has met six times since it was formed in April. The group of defense ministers and chiefs will discuss additional ways to provide security assistance for Ukraine as Russia’s war enters its eighth month.

Treasury secretary Yellen slams Russia’s missile attacks in G20 meeting

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen condemned Russia’s missile strikes during a G20 Joint Finance-Agriculture Ministerial calling the attack “barbaric.” “The innocent lives were taken by President barbaric missile attacks across Ukraine. Russia’s decision to broadly strike civilian targets shows the world yet again the true nature of their brutal and illegal war in Ukraine,” Yellen said, according to a Treasury official. “Russia’s unprovoked war on Ukraine, including its blockade of ports and destruction of agricultural infrastructure, has disrupted global supply chains and food production. Putin’s regime and the officials who serve it – including those representing Russia at these gatherings – bear responsibility for the immense human suffering this war has caused,” Yellen added.

Zelenskyy urges G7 leader to impose a price cap on Russian energy

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called on G7 leaders to “respond symmetrically” on the heels of fresh Russian missile strikes across Ukraine. “When Russia attacks the energy sector and energy stability of our countries, we must block its energy sector with sanctions, break the stability of Russian revenues from oil and gas trade,”. Zelenskyy also called for a “tough price cap” on Russian exports of oil and gas in order to weaken Moscow’s revenue stream. The Ukrainian leader, who has not left his war-weary country since the Kremlin’s late February invasion, said that Russian forces have used more than 100 cruise missiles and dozens of drones in the past 24 hours. “When Ukraine receives a sufficient number of modern and effective air defense systems, the key element of Russian terror - missile strikes - will cease to work,” Zelenskyy said, in a new plea for additional Western security assistance.

U.N. human rights agency says it’s investigating Russian missile strikes, citing violations of human rights

The U.N. agency that monitors human rights said it will continue corroborating information on human rights violations as Russian forces unleash fresh attacks on civilian infrastructure “The missile attacks by Russian armed forces which struck cities across Ukraine left at least 12 civilians dead and more than 100 injured in Kyiv, Dnipro, and Zaporizhzhia, and in Kyiv and Sumy regions,” Ravina Shamdasani, spokeswoman for U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights said in a briefing. “The location and timing of the strikes, when people were commuting to work and taking children to school, is particularly shocking,” Shamdasani said, adding that the Russian attacks targeted critical civilian infrastructure, including “dozens of residential buildings and 12 energy facilities. “These strikes may have violated the principles on the conduct of hostilities under international humanitarian law. Attacks targeting civilians and objects indispensable to the survival of civilians are prohibited,” she said.

?Russia adds U.S. tech giant Meta to its banned list, blocking Facebook and Instagram use in the country

Russia’s financial monitoring agency, Rosfin monitoring, added U.S. tech giant?Meta?to its list of “terrorists and extremists, “Russian court banned Meta and its activities in Russia, including Facebook and Instagram. The court’s decision does not prohibit the activities of WhatsApp messenger, which is also owned by Meta, because it does not publicly disseminate information. Meta considered the decision unreasonable and challenged it, but it was unsuccessful. Russia has dramatically ramped up its missile attacks on Ukraine in the last 48 hours, but experts say the country is running out of options — as well as supplies and munitions — on the battlefield. Air raid sirens were once again sounding out across multiple regions in Ukraine Tuesday, with emergency services warning that more Russian strikes were highly likely. Ukrainian officials reported that energy infrastructure in the western city of Lviv had been hit earlier, while the city of Zaporizhzhia in the south was also targeted this morning. The latest strikes come a day after a series of Russian attacks — launched in response to the bombing last weekend of Russia’s prized Kerch Strait bridge to Crimea — hit various Ukrainian cities, including the capital Kyiv. The strikes left at least 19 people dead and over a hundred injured, the emergency services said. Despite Moscow’s recent show of strength in the last day or so, experts say Russia’s forces are looking increasingly desperate and ill-equipped.

Russia continues to pound Ukraine’s energy infrastructure

Parts of Ukraine are still struggling with power outages as Russia says it is continuing to target energy infrastructure across the country. President Zelenskyy said overnight that several hundred settlements remained without electricity after missile attacks and that authorities had made it a priority to restore power. “Missile attack on a critical infrastructure facility in Lviv. Part of the city is again blacked out,” Lviv Mayor said. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kulebahas said such attacks were “creating unbearable conditions for civilians.” Russia openly admits to targeting such facilities. On Tuesday, the country’s defense ministry issued a military update on Telegram?stating that its forces continue to launch “massive” attacks “using high-precision long-range air and sea-based armament at the facilities of military control and energy system of Ukraine.”

Top Russian official warns of the ‘danger of uncontrolled escalation in the war

A top Russian official warned of the danger of “uncontrolled escalation” if the West continues to support Ukraine, marking the latest threat to be issued by Moscow to Kyiv’s international allies. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said Russia “will be forced to take adequate countermeasures, including of an asymmetric nature,”. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov says the risk of direct clashes between Moscow and Washington have increased after the U.S. decision to supply more advanced rocket systems to Ukraine. He said Moscow regretted “the ongoing large-scale assistance to Kyiv” from the West and said that while “a direct clash with the United States and NATO is not in Russia’s interests” there was a hope in Moscow “that Washington and other Western capitals are aware of the danger of uncontrolled escalation.” Ryabkov’s comments are just the latest instance in a long line of saber-rattling by officials in Moscow, including President Putin, who has threatened to use nuclear weapons if the West continues to support Ukraine in the war, or if Russia deems there to be an existential threat to its territory.

Russia is running out of supplies and munitions, UK intelligence chief will say

The director of GCHQ, one of Britain’s top intelligence agencies, will say in an address today that Russia is running out of supplies and munitions while its forces are exhausted as Ukraine turns the tide in the conflict. GCHQ’s chief Jeremy Fleming is due to speak at the annual RUSI lecture in London on Tuesday afternoon. While his speech will largely focus on China and its impact on global security, he will touch upon the war in Ukraine and is expected to say: “We know – and Russian commanders on the ground know – that their supplies and munitions are running out,” Fleming will say, according to pre-released comments sent to CNBC by the intelligence, cyber and security agency. “Russia’s forces are exhausted. The use of prisoners to reinforce, and now the mobilization of tens of thousands of inexperienced conscripts, speaks of a desperate situation,” he will say, adding that the Russian population is beginning to understand the reality surrounding the war.?“They’re seeing just how badly Putin has misjudged the situation. They’re fleeing the draft, realizing they can no longer travel. They know their access to modern technologies and external influences will be drastically restricted. And they are feeling the extent of the dreadful human cost of his war of choice.”

The chances of Russian President Vladimir Putin deploying nuclear weapons against Ukraine are low and would isolate him globally as a pariah, former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine William Taylor told CNBC. “If President Putin were to use nuclear weapons against a nuclear-disarmed Ukraine, this would turn the world against him,” said Taylor. if Russia were to resort to nuclear arms.” When asked if there is any traction towards peace talks, Taylor said he does not reckon so, mainly because “the Russians are not at all interested.” There are also no indications that Putin is too committed to the invasion, he added.

Putin confirms he ordered an attack on Ukrainian cities; vows ‘harsh’ response to ‘terrorist’ acts

Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed that he ordered long-range missile strikes on a number of locations in Ukraine targeting military, energy, and communications facilities. “If attacks continue against Russia, the response will be harsh. The responses will be of the same scale as the threats to Russia,” Putin said during a meeting of his national security council. “In the event of further attempts to carry out terrorist acts on our territory, Russia’s response will be harsh. Putin did not mention that the missile strikes hit several civilian areas and resulted in numerous casualties. The EU has said Russia’s indiscriminate attacks on civilians in Ukraine constitute a war crime. Putin has blamed Ukraine for the explosion on Russia’s Kerch bridge Saturday morning — the only bridge connecting the country to Crimea, which it illegally annexed from Ukraine in 2014 — and called it a terrorist attack. Kyiv has not claimed responsibility for the blast that destroyed part of the bridge.

CONCLUSION

No country wants peace more than Ukraine, whose people have suffered death, displacement, and countless atrocities as the result of Russian aggression. The G7 Leaders praised and welcome President Zelenskyy’s readiness for a just peace.

?My observations are as under:

1.???Nobody is interested to know the indirect provocation and interest in this war. This invasion did not happen suddenly, it was an escalation of provocation of Ukraine to Russia by the influence of the USA obvious its own interest.

?2.???Though the way Russia took the violent method to deter Ukraine to safeguard its vulnerability due to indirect control of the USA. Ukraine could not understand the motive of the USA.

3.???It is unfortunate that innocent people are killed, displaced, and compelled to become refugees. There is no end being seen in the future.

?4.???The increase of food prices and energy prices rapidly increased. Most of the goods exported from Ukraine are foodgrains and destination countries are mostly African countries, as similar various metals and petroleum oil by Russia. Most of the export oil purchasers are from European countries. The majority of metals supplied go to China to be used for electronic items.

?5.???The distortion of prices spiraling inflation. Most of the Central Banks have been increasing considerably, there is a fear of deflation.

6.???The world is getting polarized on these issues.

?7.???Most people claim that the cause of brutality and destruction is Putin, but it is partially true. As China makes close to Pakistan, Sri Lanka, etc. will prove a threat to India. In the same way closeness of Ukraine with the USA, NATO, and EU will pose major threats to Russian economic power and its strength.

?Whatever may be the reason, it is always best to solve such issues bilateral or in dialogue, rather than through violence. Everybody is praying halt to this destructive war.

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Breakdown

Confirmed casualties

Time period

Source

Civilians

6,221?killed,?9,371?wounded[f]

(399?killed in DPR/LPR areas)

24 February – 9 October 2022

United Nations[632]

Ukrainian forces?(ZSU ,?NGU ,?SBGS )

10,000?killed,?30,000?wounded

24 February – 3 June 2022

Ukrainian government[633] [634]

Ukrainian forces?(ZSU )

≈9,000?killed

24 February – 21 August 2022

Ukrainian government[635]

Russian forces

(VSRF ,?Rosgvardiya ,?FSB )

7,184?minimum killed (confirmed

by names)

24 February – 7 October 2022

BBC News Russian ?&?Mediazona [636]

Russian forces?(VSRF )

5,937?killed

24 February – 21 September 2022

Russian government[637]

Donetsk People's Republic forces

3,272?killed,?13,924?wounded

26 February – 6 October 2022

Donetsk People's Republic[g]

Luhansk People's Republic forces

500–600?killed

24 February – 5 April 2022

Russian government[h]

Breakdown

Estimated & claimed casualties

Time period

Source

Civilians

7,000–29,125+?killed[642] [i]

24 February – 11 October 2022

Ukrainian government

1,081?killed,?3,433?wounded

17 February – 6 October 2022

DPR[j] ?and LPR[644]

Ukrainian forces

(ZSU ,?NGU ,?SBGS )

61,207?killed and?49,368?wounded

24 February – 21 September 2022

Russian government[645] [646] [647]

Russian and other forces

(VSRF ,?Rosgvardiya ,?FSB ,

PMC Wagner ,?DPR & LPR )

15,000?killed,?45,000?wounded

24 February – 20 July 2022

US, UK & Estonian estimates[648] [649] [650]

70,000–80,000?killed and wounded

(20,000?killed)

24 February – 8 August 2022

US estimate[651]

64,300?killed,?98,000–117,000?wounded

24 February – 14 October 2022

Ukrainian government[652] [653]