A Root Cause Analysis of the 2024 Floods in Eastern Bangladesh

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The devastating floods that swept through Eastern Bangladesh in 2024, particularly impacting regions like Feni, Noakhali, and Comilla, have left a trail of destruction, claimed 23 lives, and stranded 1.24 million families. While the heavy monsoon rains were a significant trigger, a comprehensive root cause analysis is essential to understand the complex interplay of factors that contributed to this calamity. This analysis will integrate engineering perspectives, in-depth research, and recent data, including the grim reality of the 5.7 million people affected and the challenges faced in relief efforts due to blocked roads.

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? Extreme Rainfall and Uneven Distribution: The 2024 monsoon season brought unprecedented rainfall intensity, with some areas experiencing cloudbursts exceeding 450mm in a single day. This, coupled with an uneven spatial distribution, created a scenario where certain regions bore the brunt of the deluge while others remained relatively unscathed.

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? Upstream Dams and Hydropower Projects: The presence of dams and hydroelectric plants in India, particularly on the Gomti, Teesta, and Barak rivers, significantly alters river flows. Reduced water flow in these rivers and their tributaries due to dam operations can contribute to waterlogging and exacerbate flooding downstream in Bangladesh. The sudden release of water from dams during peak monsoons can also lead to flash floods downstream.

? Inadequate Drainage Systems: The existing drainage networks in Bangladesh were designed based on historical rainfall patterns and are ill-equipped to handle the increased intensity and volume of recent monsoons, leading to bottlenecks and widespread waterlogging.

? Altered River Morphology: Human interventions like embankments, encroachments, and alterations to riverbeds have compromised the natural flow and capacity of rivers like the Gomoti, Meghna, and Kushiyara, crucial to Eastern Bangladesh's hydrology. This makes them less able to accommodate increased water volumes during heavy rainfall.

? Land Use Changes: Rapid urbanization, deforestation, and the conversion of wetlands to other uses have severely disrupted the natural water cycle. The reduced water absorption and increased runoff exacerbate flooding in vulnerable areas.

? Unplanned Infrastructure Development: While infrastructure development is essential for progress, the construction of roads, bridges, and other infrastructure without adequate consideration for drainage and water flow can obstruct natural drainage patterns and worsen flooding.

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? Upstream Dams and Hydroelectric Plants: The presence of dams and hydroelectric plants upstream reduces regular water flow, causing downstream flooding when dam gates are suddenly opened during the rainy season.

? Sedimentation: Excessive sedimentation in rivers and canals, worsened by deforestation and erosion upstream, reduces their carrying capacity, making them prone to overflow during heavy rainfall.

? Deforestation: The loss of forest cover in upstream catchments in Bangladesh and neighboring regions increases surface runoff and contributes to flash floods. Recent satellite data reveals alarming rates of deforestation in the region.

? Climate Change (The Underlying Driver): Climate change intensifies the water cycle, leading to more frequent and intense extreme weather events like the recent cloudbursts and heavy monsoons. Rising sea levels also contribute to coastal flooding and impede drainage.

? Tectonic Uplift and Erosion: The ongoing tectonic uplift of the Himalayas increases erosion rates, leading to a massive influx of sediment into Bangladesh's river systems. This sediment chokes river channels, reducing their efficiency and increasing the risk of flooding.

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? Improved Flood Management Infrastructure: Strengthening and expanding existing flood control infrastructure, including embankments, drainage canals, and early warning systems, is vital.

? Sustainable Land Management: Promoting reforestation, wetland conservation, and sustainable agricultural practices can help regulate water flow and reduce flood risk.

? Transboundary Water Cooperation: Collaborating with India on equitable water sharing and management, including the operation of dams and hydroelectric plants, is essential to mitigate the impact of upstream water management on downstream flooding in Bangladesh.

? Climate Change Adaptation: Investing in climate-resilient infrastructure and adaptation strategies is critical to protect communities from the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events.

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The 2024 floods in Eastern Bangladesh highlight the urgent need for a multifaceted approach to flood management. While heavy monsoon rains were a trigger, the underlying causes are complex and interconnected, with climate change acting as a threat multiplier. Addressing this challenge requires a combination of improved infrastructure, sustainable land management, transboundary cooperation, and a commitment to adapting to the changing climate. By understanding the root causes and taking decisive action, Bangladesh can build resilience and protect its vulnerable communities from future floods.