The Role India Can Play in the Russia-Ukraine War

Russia has long opposed Ukraine's move toward European institutions, and demanding that it never join NATO, a demand that the Western alliance has rejected, Russia launched a full-fledged invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022.

Being a rising global power, India's stance on the Ukraine conflict has been unwavering and consistent. India has remained neutral until now. India has expressed grave concern about the deteriorating situation and has called for an immediate cessation of violence and the end of all hostilities.

With the above quick overview, let's dive in and see what role India can play in the Russia-Ukraine conflict in this article.

The rationale behind the neutral stand

India has economic, security, educational, and political ties to the countries involved in the conflict. These countries' needs are intertwined with India's.

Every country in the world is impacted by the ongoing war. India supports peace and hopes that all issues can be resolved through deliberation.

Not siding with the majority is a difficult choice, but it is a pragmatic one for New Delhi in order to protect its interests with Russia, Ukraine, the US, or the EU. For example, India was able to successfully evacuate Indian citizens from Ukraine through its diplomatic channels with Ukraine and Russia, as well as by operating evacuation flights from European countries. Hungary, Romania, Moldova, Slovenia, and Poland are examples of such countries.

Furthermore, it is aware that its access to cheaper fuel from Russia protects its energy concerns from the looming dangers of rising crude oil prices.

The disparity between India's and China's positions

India maintains a neutral stance while making its own decisions. It is worth noting that India and China both abstained from the UN vote condemning Russia. Unlike New Delhi, Beijing has labelled the US "the culprit," claiming that "pouring oil on the fire" is "irresponsible and immoral."

It has maintained that the Ukraine crisis is the result of a "historically complex historical context," and that Russia has "legitimate security concerns."

Furthermore, Beijing has backed Russia's allegations that the US is running a bioweapons operation in Ukraine. Besides, just a few days before the Ukraine crisis, Beijing and Russia jointly declared that their friendship "knows no bounds" and that "there are no "forbidden" areas of cooperation."

All of this has heightened international concern about China's stance on the Ukraine crisis.

In contrast, New Delhi's non-reactionary stance has catalysed positive reactions in the international diplomatic circle, focusing on India's humanitarian assistance to Ukraine and its stance of preferring diplomacy and dialogue overtaking any side.

This has allowed New Delhi to reiterate that it is no longer second fiddle to any country and that it is an important player on the world stage amid great power rivalry.

The high-level visits and interactions with New Delhi demonstrate this. These visits are primarily intended to persuade India to join the coalition in condemning Russia. So far, India has remained neutral, but its suitors are well aware that if India changes its stance, the coalition's position will only become stronger, given the latter's close ties with Russia.

A notch up from India’s earlier explicitly neutral stance

Prime Minister Modi's appeal to President Putin for a "cessation of violence" and a return to the negotiating table was a step up from India's earlier explicitly neutral stance and carried a hint of the compulsions to get off the fence, while still largely maintaining a balance.

Russia's Importance to India

Russia remains a steady and reliable defence source for India; steady because all three services rely heavily on Russia for equipment and spares; and reliable because Moscow responds quickly and reliably when the enemy is at the gates.

At the height of the crisis with China in Ladakh, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh travelled to Moscow to ensure that military supplies would not be cut. With the S-400 air defence system, Russia has increased India's defence capability against China.

Moscow is also a dependable ally in the United Nations Security Council. Relationships between India and Russia have ensured that Delhi is not completely excluded from discussions about Afghanistan and Central Asia, while also providing some leverage with the US.

Russia is also a strategic figure for India in the peaceful use of nuclear energy.

Why can't India afford to lose the cooperation of the West?

The United States, the European Union, and the United Kingdom are all important partners for India, and its relationships with each of them, as well as with the Western world in general, go far beyond the sum of their parts.

In the UN Security Council, India has relied on France's continued support on a variety of issues. As it deals with an aggressive China on the Line of Actual Control, India has relied on Western assistance. The Quad (the United States, Australia, India, and Japan) recently reached the summit level. Recently, the West has backed India's efforts to limit Pakistan's support for cross-border terrorism.

Besides, the Russia-China 'axis' is strengthening. It will make it difficult for India to maintain good relations with Russia and obtain adequate weapons supplies to defend its borders.

If China is able to assert its influence in the Indo-Pacific, the Quad may lose relevance as a countervailing grouping. This scenario will put India in a difficult regional position.

Why can India play a role in the Russia-Ukraine conflict?

With the world's third-largest military expenditure, fourth-largest armed force, fifth-largest economy by GDP nominal rates, and the third-largest economy in terms of purchasing power parity, India is a prominent regional power, a nuclear power, an emerging global power, and a potential superpower. India is gaining international clout and establishing itself as a major voice in global affairs. Aside from that, India maintains equal relations with both the West and Russia.

What Should India's Role Be?

New Delhi must maintain a constant dialogue with all parties and engage with all of its partners while remembering that there is no justification for violating any country's territorial sovereignty.

India should remember that distance from the theatre of conflict no longer shields any country from its consequences.

The shock of this "regional" conflict in a corner of Europe has already hit India's economy, and other consequences were visible, such as the evacuation of thousands of students.

India must also make it clear to coercive countries that their "with us or against us" formulations are unhelpful. In this conflict, there are no innocents.

As Russia-China and US-led blocs consolidate their global coalition, India must struggle to find a middle ground.

The future of the West-led global order will be defined by how it responds to the Ukraine crisis, as well as the growing Russia-China ties.