The Role of Energy in the Sustainability and Collapse of Complex Societies

Cengiz Aytun , Dean, Hatay Mustafa Kemal University, FEAS

Translated by Deniz Aytun

13 March 2024

Note: This book chapter was originally published in Turkish and translated into English by Deniz Aytun for educational purposes. Please refer to the original text if necessary. (Turkish)

Aytun, C. (2022). Karma??k Toplumlar?n Sürdürülebilirlik ve ??kü?ünde Enerjinin Rolü. In C. S. Ak?n & C. Aytun (Eds.), Sürdürülebilirlik (pp. 62–69). Erzurum: Atatürk University Publications.

Introduction

It's hard to find someone who has visited the city ruins of ancient civilizations without wondering, "What caused such destruction?" These civilizations came into existence, achieved great success, and ultimately, due to unspecified causes, underwent a decline and disappearance. To provide an example, standing on the harbor street of the ancient city of Ephesus in Izmir and gazing at the vast horizon is a similarly bewildering experience. It is hard to imagine that Heraclitus of Ephesus (535-475 BC) was casually walking and having conversations with his students along the harbor street 25 centuries ago. There is no longer a trace of the sea, the ships, or the people. Where did they disappear to? What happened? How did they go astray? These are the questions we find it hard to answer.

Understanding the collapse of past societies is challenging because of the monotony of our daily lives. It is a misconception that our current way of life, which is filled with modern comforts and luxuries, will continue indefinitely. We view collapse as something from the past and believe it is only found in history books. The impact of this perception can be seen in our production, consumption, and lifestyle. It has an impact on both our personal and social connections, as well as our connection with nature. We create our communities to be everlasting, immune to any form of collapse. Now, we must ask ourselves if our modern existence is truly resistant to collapse.

Upon examining the literature, one can find diverse explanations regarding the origins of collapse, dating back to ancient times. For instance, in his book "Muqaddimah," the Arab historian Ibn Khaldun (2004) identified the decline of asabiyyah as the reason behind societal collapse. Asabiyyah, as defined by Kongar (2017, 66), refers to the ability of a group to take collective action and unite in society. In his six-volume work "The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire," published between 1776 and 1788, Edward Gibbon explores the collapse of the Western Roman Empire and also delves into the resilience of the Byzantine Empire. Although northern raids were acknowledged as a major external cause for the decline, Gibbon attributed the fall of Western Rome to internal factors such as the diminishing Roman virtue, the homogenization of religion, and the rigidity of intellectual thought. According to him, the declining empire was ultimately destroyed by the barbarian raids from the north. Arnold Toynbee, another historian, also holds significant perspectives on the concept of collapse. Toynbee analyzed the growth and decline of more than thirty civilizations in his twelve-volume series "A Study of History," which he wrote from 1921 to 1961. Toynbee's theory of civilization suggests that civilizations can arise and progress by successfully addressing challenges and developing effective mechanisms in response to them (Kabak?? 2012; Toynbee 1947). The list of factors that led to the collapse can be expanded even more. Historian Andre Demant listed a long list of 210 reasons for the Roman Empire's collapse. According to him, the collapse was not caused by a single factor, but by a complex interplay of multiple causes (Anderson 2020, 55).

Two factors stand out when examining current explanations of social collapse. These two factors are environmental destruction and climate change. These factors are also at the center of the debate that the world has entered a new geological period called the Anthropocene. There are examples in history where societies have collapsed due to environmental destruction or climate change that were beyond their control. Among many other factors, these two stand out. Jared Diamond's (2019) book "Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed" delves into the analysis of various societies that have experienced collapse throughout history. Diamond's analysis acknowledges that the collapse of societies is a complex phenomenon, involving various dimensions and factors. However, he contends that ecological and environmental factors hold significant importance. Present times are not immune to collapse, as we often assume. In this particular context, Somalia, Rwanda, and the former Yugoslavia serve as contemporary examples of societal disintegration. Understanding the reasons behind collapses can provide valuable insights for the modern societies in which we live in (Diamond 2019).

Another factor that plays a role in the collapse of societies is social complexity. In his book "The Collapse of Complex Societies," Joseph A. Tainter (1988) contends that the collapse of societies is often attributed to the presence of complexity. Complexity, as stated by Tainter, serves as a problem-solving strategy employed by societies and institutions. Social complexity can be quantified and encompasses a wide range of concepts. This includes society's size, the characteristics and number of its different parts, the number of social roles, and the variety of governance mechanisms to ensure the harmonious functioning of society as a whole. Each of these concepts represents a different dimension of complexity. The augmentation of any dimension will increase the level of complexity of the society. If we take the number of social roles as a dimension, it is known that hunter-gatherer societies had at most a few dozen social roles. During the shift from hunter-gatherer societies to agriculture, and later from agriculture to industry, the number of social roles increases to a million. This increase in the size and quality of social roles inevitably makes industrial societies more complex (Tainter 1988, 23).

Complexity is not a cost-free solution that can be used with the same effectiveness all the time. Investments in complexity by societies have an energy cost. Although the initial energy cost of complex solutions is low, at some point these solutions inevitably enter a "process of diminishing returns". As new problems constantly emerge, cheap and simple solutions gradually run out. Therefore, more expensive and complex solutions are needed (Tainter 2000a, 342-43). A sustainable society must have a sustainable problem-solving system. While sustainability is costless in the increasing and constant return regions of problem solving, in the region of diminishing returns, it is only possible with an external energy subsidy. Understanding the problem-solving capacity of our civilization is therefore crucial for sustainable prosperity. To grasp sustainability, we must comprehend our current problem-solving status, the costs associated with it, the efficiency of our solutions, and maintain historical awareness (Tainter 2000a, 349-50).

This section will explore the connection between social complexity and collapse to address the questions raised earlier regarding the sustainability of our modern fossil energy-based civilization. The role of energy use in this connection will be examined. In this context, the first section will provide an explanation of the dynamics that contribute to the collapse of complex societies. Moreover, the influence of the Anthropocene era, which emerged after the industrial revolution and the great acceleration periods, on the global civilization reliant on fossil energy, will be evaluated. The second section will discuss what social complexity means, how the process of diminishing returns of complexity works, and why societies are becoming more and more complex despite the fact that they are leading themselves to collapse. Then, the sustainability of our current lifestyle based on fossil energy resources will be discussed. Recommendations regarding the measures to be implemented for achieving sustainability will be provided in the conclusion.

The Road from Regional Collapse to Global Collapse

In order to comprehend the collapse, we must grasp four key matters. These first three guide us towards the fourth. (i) Human societies are problem-solving organizations. (ii) Sociopolitical systems need energy to survive. The rise in complexity results in an escalation of costs per capita. (iv) Increasing investment in sociopolitical complexity as a problem-solving behavior-response often reaches a peak where marginal returns begin to decline in absolute terms (Tainter 1988, 194). Collapse is the rapid decline in the level of social complexity after the peak. In the event of collapse, there is a swift change from one structurally stable societal state to another. This change in equilibrium is comparable to the progressive social evolution discourse. But this time it is towards simplicity with the difference that the change is in the opposite direction (Tainter 1988, 38).

As members of modern progressive societies, we think of collapse as a matter for the history books, but for philosophers in ancient civilizations, collapse was as natural as it was inevitable. As mentioned earlier, Heraclitus of Ephesus famously asserted that everything in the universe is subject to change, and only the change alone remains constant. According to Asimov (1982, 7), this implied that no living being or societal system in the entire universe was exempt from change. Polybius (203-120 BC), who lived in the second century BC, predicted the collapse of the Western Roman Empire six centuries in advance (Tainter 2000a, 338-39). Viewing it from this angle, we can interpret that "collapse is not a flaw or a misstep, but rather the fundamental process through which the universe functions." Another issue is the speed asymmetry between growth and decline. The Roman philosopher Seneca (4 BC - 65 AD) was the first to assert that growth and development occur gradually while decadence happens swiftly (Bardi 2017, 1). We consider Ancient Greek and Roman civilizations as ancient. In the eyes of the ancient Greeks, the Babylonian and Akkadian civilizations in Mesopotamia were considered ancient. Therefore, we can say that the knowledge of the collapse of these civilizations left important traces in the minds of philosophers, such as Heraclitus, Polybius, and Seneca.

The events that took place in the eastern Mediterranean, Anatolia, Egypt, and the Aegean civilization around 1200 BC were regarded by Polybius and Seneca as a sequence of relatively recent social collapses. The region had the privilege of enjoying an unprecedented era of peace and prosperity under the reign of pharaohs and kings, a century before its eventual collapse. An interconnected trade system made it easier than ever to trade food, drink, raw materials, and luxury goods. This period witnessed the development of remarkable palaces, temples, and monuments. Despite this, around 1200 BC, most cities in the region underwent a collapse and disappeared within a timeframe of 20-30 years. All the palaces of the Mycenaeans were burned. While the Hittite Empire faded into history, the Egyptian Kingdom re-surged from the brink of extinction. The collapse came to the Egyptian Kingdom through a slow and irreversible process of decline. The Eastern Mediterranean, Aegean, and Anatolia would need centuries to fully recover from this series of collapses, which were considered global at that time. Some scholars believe that the collapse can be attributed to sea tribes with disputed origins, while others point to factors like volcanic eruptions and climate change (Drews 2014; Ayd?ngün 2014; Cline 2018). The fall of the Western Roman Empire serves as another example of near-global collapse. The collapse of Rome denoted the shift from the Antique Age to the onset of the Middle Ages. The decline and collapse of Roman institutions, values, and culture resulted in a long period of darkness that lasted for a thousand years (Anderson 2020, 55).

Throughout history, there are countless examples (as shown in Figure 1) that demonstrate the inevitable collapse of complex societies. According to Kemp's (2019) findings, civilizations that arose between 3000 BC and 1000 AD had an average lifespan of 336 years. The duration of 336 years might appear insignificant when compared to the 5000-year existence of states. Nevertheless, this is a duration that surpasses the life expectancy of individuals in numerous societies and spans 8-10 generations. Despite the inevitability of collapse, people's tendency to overlook or underestimate it arises from the disparity between the lifespan of states and the lifespan of individuals. People of the modern world suffer from this forgetfulness to a significant degree.

Figure 1 The Lifespan of The Ancient Civilizations

Source: Kemp (2019)

The collapse of all previous complex agricultural societies is a significant cause for concern regarding the sustainability of our modern global civilization, which relies heavily on fossil fuels. The collapse of solar energy-based agricultural civilizations, which were more sustainable than our current exhaustible hydrocarbon-based energy system, raises further concerns regarding the potential collapse of modern states. The industrial revolution, which started in England in the 1700s and spread first to Europe and then to the rest of the world, made agriculture, which was relatively sustainable in the 19th century, no longer a basic human activity. As a result of the utilization of fossil fuels, human activities have experienced both acceleration and expansion globally. The environmental impact experienced a substantial surge between 1945 and 2000, leading to the designation of this era as the "great acceleration" period. By the year 2000, there were rapid increases in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, as well as many other indicators of degradation. During the span of fifty years, from 1950 to 2000, the global population experienced a growth of 3 billion to 6 billion, simultaneously witnessing a 15-fold increase in economic activity. There was a 3.5-fold surge in oil consumption after the year 1965. The number of motor vehicles witnessed a substantial growth, escalating from 40 million following the Second World War to 700 million in the 2000s. The issues resulting from phenomena like the abandonment of rural life, migration-driven rapid and distorted urbanization, intensive agricultural practices, and mass production and consumption reached their peak in this period (Steffen et al. 2011, 848-49).

Throughout Earth's geological history, mass extinctions have been attributed to chemical, geological, or astronomical phenomena. These extinctions are commonly referred to by geologists as Ordovician, Devonian, Permian, Triassic, and Cretaceous. In the present day, particularly following a significant period of rapid industrialization, the deterioration of the environment has reached such a magnitude that there are claims of a new geological period known as the Anthropocene. The word "ánthropos" here means "human" in Greek and the suffix "cene" means "new". The Anthropocene differs from its predecessors in that it is caused by human activities and essentially symbolizes a human era (Druyan 2020, 54-55). It seems that the environmental impact of modern thermo-industrial-complex civilization, which derives its energy from the burning of fossil energy resources, is reaching global dimensions compared to the regional impacts of past civilizations.

Diminishing Returns of Complexity and Energy

Over the past 12,000 years, we have increasingly invested in social complexity since transitioning from a simple hunter-gatherer lifestyle to agriculture. As agricultural yields grew and production surpassed demand, this investment opportunity emerged. People invented alternative means of wealth that could stockpile surpluses of food, crops, and energy. The newfound problem revolves around deciding who will be in charge of the wealth. This wealth would eventually be controlled by a small minority. With the surplus of wealth, people, and increased agricultural yields, there was no longer a need for everyone to work on the farm. Apart from being vagabonds or slaves, these people took on other useful social roles. As time went on, they became priests, soldiers, philosophers, potters, or rulers. They specialized in limited roles. The division of labor led to the development of complex and interconnected communities with different roles. Thus, new connective structures emerged, the social counterparts of the skeleton, muscles and nervous system. The level of specialization and complexity relied on the surplus energy generated by agriculture (Christian 2020, 207-8).

As the energy surplus has grown, humanity has invested more and more in complexity. However, there are also unintended consequences of ever more complex solutions to short-term problems. Short-term adaptive solutions constantly feed long-term cumulative problems (Tainter 2000b, 18). The complexity paradox has led us to a dilemma of increasing complexity. We are faced with the challenge of working harder in societies that have grown more complex over countless lifetimes. Initially, our societies transitioned into agricultural communities by gaining knowledge about plant life cycles. Subsequently, we progressed into industrial societies by being able to use fossil energy sources. Our ever more complex thermo-industrial lifestyle has brought global civilization face to face with the climate crisis and the Anthropocene. In this situation, we may question why we persist in pursuing social complexity. The answer to this question is that complexity works to a significant degree (Tainter 2000b, 7-8).

Societies become complex as a response to the problems they face. Complexity is a problem-solving approach, but its costs are constantly rising. As societies become more complex, the number of elements and relationships that need to be controlled increases. Any disturbance in these components has the potential to incite a movement that may result in the collapse of society. Initially, rational societies prioritize accessing and extracting energy, food, and raw materials from the most readily available sources. Once these are consumed, they rely on more costly alternatives. As a result, more sophisticated armies, bureaucracies, and production techniques are used as remedies. Eventually, when the expenses surpass a certain threshold and the gains diminish significantly, it becomes impossible to sustain the current state, let alone derive any advantages from potential solutions. Society is now more vulnerable to crises started by internal and external factors. The collapse of society becomes possible (Edgerton 2015, 231-32).

Energy resources with a high return on investment form the foundation of modern societies. In this respect, it can be said that resources with higher energy return on investment (EROI) lead to higher production and social welfare (Lambert et al. 2014, 154). On the other hand, studies show that the EROI for global oil and gas production has been declining. To provide an instance, within the United States, the Energy Return on Investment (EROI) for oil exploration activities witnessed a decrease from 1000:1 in 1919 to 5:1 in 2010. In the 1970s, the oil production ratio was 20:1, while it was around 10:1 in 2007 (Hall, Lambert, and Balogh 2014, 143; Guilford et al. 2011, 1873). The potential collapse of our fossil energy-dependent civilization looms as the EROI ratio edges closer to 10:1.

To summarize, we can find solutions to the problems we face in the short run through complexity. As complexity increases over time, the returns become less attractive quickly, while the energy and resource costs continue to rise. There comes a time when a high complexity social system cannot find the necessary energy to continue. Looking at the experiences of previous societies, we can conclude that modern societies confront three possible scenarios. These scenarios are collapse, finding new ways to sustain complexity by increasing the flow of energy, and controlled simplification (Tainter 2000a, 3).

Conclusion

To understand energy and environmental issues, it is important to understand the trajectory of energy and complexity in our social lives. Fossil fuels are essential for our complex social system to function. The depletion of fossil energy sources is without question, causing damage to the environment. The depletion of fossil resources might lead to an energy crisis, which could be the breaking point for our complex social structure.

The purpose of this study is not to find and explain the causes of the collapse of past civilizations. It would be an oversimplification to assert that historical social systems collapsed solely due to energy and environmental issues. Throughout history, energy and environmental problems have been significant factors contributing to the collapse of past civilizations. Included in these problems are volcanic activity, earthquakes, epidemics, famines, floods, revolutions, civil wars, and invasions. If these causes work in unison instead of separately, the social structure moves closer to collapse. As a result, there are complex interactions during the collapse of a complex society.

It's important to recognize the limitations of attributing collapses in undocumented history to just one factor. However, as writing was introduced 4-5 thousand years ago, we now have a larger quantity of surviving documents and evidence that date back to that time. We should be careful when making judgments about the past, but we can directly experience the issues of the present to a great extent. The environmental and climate issues we are currently experiencing are a direct result of our heavy reliance on cheap and abundant fossil fuels, which form the foundation of modern civilization. When considering the future from our present era, known as the Anthropocene, it is evident that the energy-environmental issues arising from human activities are gaining prominence as one of the numerous potential triggers for the collapse of our civilization.

One can imagine many scenarios that modern complex societies will face in the future. However, there are three main possibilities: "collapse," "further complexity," and "voluntary simplification." If we maintain our way of life without making any compromises, the first scenario will happen. Given this scenario, our response to our escalating problems will involve a progressively intricate approach. Eventually, the point of diminishing returns in complexity will render our solutions ineffective. The only way out of such a situation is to access new and more abundant sources of energy. In this scenario, the fact that fossil energy sources are on their way to depletion and renewable energy sources are not as efficient as desired are the two most important factors that will push societies towards collapse. The second scenario is possible with more abundant new energy sources becoming available to humanity. Considering the current state of sustainable energy technologies, this situation is not feasible. In order to achieve voluntary simplification in the third scenario, we must adjust our worldview when it comes to energy usage. In order to lean and consume less energy, we need to decide what we need and what we don't, what we will take with us and what we will leave behind as we move into the future. Fossil energy sources should be abandoned as the top priority. We need to restructure our system of production, consumption, daily habits and values based on these energy sources. Some examples of required steps include promoting public transportation, transitioning to sustainable agricultural methods that do not rely on excessive use of fertilizers and pesticides, eliminating single-use packaging, and voluntarily embracing a more modest lifestyle. To perceive these changes as desirable, we must refresh our perspective and awareness of our surroundings, nature, and the world. It is obvious that considering nature as an infinite resource to exploit, with no obligations for reciprocity, is not a sustainable viewpoint. It is crucial, in our ethical understanding of the environment, to adopt a perspective that incorporates and respects nature, rather than excluding and controlling it.

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