Roger Wrote

Market Comments:

 1)When I wrote in early May that I felt that the final high had been seen in

the dow, I was disappointed when the snp when to a newer high. The dow did not

go to the newer high and NOW what I personally saw as the market risk is

happening. The dow has about matched the first decline and due to the way it

is trading, anyone should expect an elliott 1.618 move down to somewhere

between 32,200-32,400. In other words about 1000 more points down. -----The

dow just went below the May lows and therefore expect the snp might just do

the same thing. A temporary bottom is likely below 4000. BOTH PRICES COULD

WELL BE EVEN LOWER, NEXT IS WHY.

2)In elliott wave corrections and sell offs look like the letter "M" with

the second peak lower. It's what the dow is doing. Also gold mining stocks.

The downlegs of "M" patterns are supposed to have PANIC selling. Just what is

happening. But, there is a problem. The middle of the panic is supposed to

have volatility and volume!!! The snp and the dow have both. "IF" this is only

the middle of the sell off there could well be even lower prices. PS---the 20

day moving average of the dow is about to fall below the 50 day moving average

for only the second time in the last year. Previous last october.

3)Dollar----it has exploded upward which has helped gold/silver/miners to

sell down hard. The dollar's trading pattern in May was a downward wedge and

it was pointed out to me. So the dollar is now in the process of a big "W"

looking bottom in the last year. Will it test the previous high??? LIKELY.

Will it break above the previous high, no idea. Just watching. Sentiment

Trader has pointed out the gold has the opposite trading to the dollar, BUT so

far the negative correlation is double the norm. In other words, gold has

likely over reacted to the dollar move, SO FAR.

4)Gold/silver/miners-----This sell off is making everything become very over

sold. Have they bottomed, no way to know yet. Technical indicators are

becoming stretched. WHY be bullish??? Because "IF" big money is truly gold

bullish, then the best way to make even bigger money would be to engineer a

take down to accumulate shares at even lower prices. I expect new highs for

gold/silver/miners when dollar peaks and metal prices start up again