The rocky road to EV adoption

Written by Dr. Paul Smith

Estimates of global annual GHG’s amount to 47 - 50 Gt, CO2eq with the road transport sector (HGV, car, bus, motorcycle) responsible for 12% of those emissions, equivalent to 5.8 Gt CO2eq annually. According to Project Drawdown wn widespread adoption of electric vehicles (EV’s) could save 7.66 Gt CO2eq per year by 2050, assuming an optimistic scenario of 866 million EV’s on the road. In their 2024 EV outlook, 彭博资讯 found that in 2023 alone, the global EV fleet displaced the equivalent of 1.7 million barrels of oil per day, around? 0.232 Gt CO2eq. Although small compared to the current global burden of emissions, this indicates that with targeted support such as incentives for new car purchases, subsidies for renewable energies, and investment in charging infrastructure, a rapid decarbonisation of the transport system is entirely feasible.

Globally, new EV sales are still increasing rapidly, especially in China (See Figure 1), with India, SE Asia and Brazil expanding as a result of cheaper models coming to the market, especially in the 2 and 3-wheeler segment. Sales in Europe have plateaued as a result of economic and policy decisions, including premature withdrawal of subsidies for EV’s, inflationary impacts on purchasing decisions, revision of ICE phase out targets and the introduction of tariffs on Chinese EV’s.4,13?

One-in-ten new cars in 2022 was electric, and the relative simplicity (around 200 moving parts, compared to >1000 in a conventional petrol car means that many start-ups are entering the market and using off-the-shelf components to drive down costs. 吉利控股集团 , 比亚迪 , NIO蔚来 and Cherry have models with sub €25k price due on the market in 2024/25, although EU import tariffs to protect domestic producers will drive up prices with debatable medium-term benefits to EU OEM’s.

However, widespread adoption of EV’s faces several hurdles. Current lithium-ion battery supplies need to ramp up 22x by 2050 to meet the demand for new vehicles on the roads, and this brings with it geopolitical and equity issues. Six-out-of-ten of the world’s largest battery manufacturers are Chinese, meaning traditional EU OEM’s are concerned for supply chains. Latin-American has 60% of proven lithium reserves that offers huge opportunities for growth and improving living standards in an area beset by inequality. In Chile and Peru, lithium and copper mining are often disrupted by indigenous protests over use of water by miners, and lack of jobs for local communities. Chile, Bolivia and Argentina want to nationalise these resources and encourage local processing of raw materials. Table 1 summarises some of the main pain-points and potential solutions.

Range anxiety is a common reason for not switching to EV’s when considering a new vehicle purchase, however, research in the UK has shown that 70% of journeys by car are less than 8 km. Misconceptions over charging infrastructure (or lack thereof) can be targeted with education, but more needs to be done, for example mandates for compulsory charging points in high-density residential developments.

Another often-cited issue with EV’s are the true environmental benefits in terms of CO2 emissions avoided. Life-cycle analysis for the EU by Transport & Environment found modern EV’s emit 29 to 79% less CO2 km than conventional vehicles, depending on the grid energy mix of the country. EV’s can bring health benefits in terms of the reduction in tailpipe emissions of nitrogen oxides and particulate matter, linked to chronic health problems such as asthma, heart disease, diabetes and stroke, that frequently impact marginalised communities in cities, for example.

FACT: Fleet vehicles constitute 73% of all new emissions, and 50% of all new vehicles purchased.

References:

1)????? A difficult new world | Apr 22nd 2023 | The Economist

2)????? www.economist.com/the-americas/2023/08/08/latin-america-could-be-this-centurys-commodity-superpower

3)????? www.intelligenttransport.com/transport-articles/146864/transition-clean-air-network-air-quality-decarbonisation

4)????? https://about.bnef.com/electric-vehicle-outlook/#download

5)????? https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/operations/our-insights/shaping-the-future-of-fast-charging-ev-infrastructure

6)????? https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/electric-vehicles-are-here-and-large-scale-adoption-is-near

7)????? https://petroleumservicecompany.com/blog/oil-barrel-42-gallon-breakdown/

8)??? https://www.epa.gov/energy/greenhouse-gases-equivalencies-calculator-calculations-and-references

9)????? https://www.transportenvironment.org/challenges/cars/

10) ?https://ourworldindata.org/ghg-emissions-by-sector

11)?? https://www.climatewatchdata.org/ghg-emissions

12) ?https://drawdown.org/solutions/electric-cars

13)?? https://www.economist.com/business/2024/06/12/the-eu-hits-chinas-carmakers-with-hefty-new-tariffs