On the rocks

Hello from Sydney,

Today’s weekly digest comes from Sydney as I have been on the (long) road - from Melbourne to Canberra to Sydney - meeting with readers of Geopolitical Dispatch.?

It has been wonderful to connect with so many enthusiastic readers in person and hear how valuable they are finding our analysis.

The most important geopolitical development, however, is taking place far from Sydney - in Dubai, where governments and businesses have descended for the COP28 climate change conference - a notoriously complex global challenge made even more challenging owing to geopolitical rivalries and frictions.

We spent much time, however, focused on the geopolitics of trade. Our weekly essay examined maritime choke points and the risks to business.?

And we participated in a webinar on X (formerly Twitter) on the geopolitics of trade - ranging from the WTO to US China “chip wars” and the true meaning of the Belt and Road Initiative. You can listen to a recording here.

Beyond that, please find below the weekly digest from Geopolitical Dispatch.

All the best

Damien

—---------

Global

• Climate change: Joe Biden will not attend the UN’s 28th Conference of the Parties on climate. The annual summit, which began in Dubai last Thursday, is bringing together tens of thousands of delegates from around 200 countries. Analysis.
• Climate change: Delegates at Dubai’s Conference of the Parties summit agreed to a 'loss and damage' fund, which will help poorer countries cope with climate impacts. The EU, UAE, Germany, UK, US, and Japan pledged a collective $429 million. Analysis.

Europe

• France: Paris urged calm after the murder of a teenager at a village festival in the rural southeast sparked far-right protests on the weekend. Emmanuel Macron's spokesman visited the town, warning against vigilantism. Analysis.
• France: France aimed to finalise a bilateral "security guarantee" with Ukraine by the end of 2023, the French foreign ministry said. The same day, NATO ministers promised "interoperability" with Ukraine, though not membership. Analysis.?
• Ukraine-Russia: The White House warned the US would run out of funds for Ukraine by the end of the month. Bulgaria's president vetoed the transfer of armoured vehicles, saying the country needed to assess its own needs first. Analysis.
• Ukraine-Russia: A US journalist claimed Ukraine's military chief was in secret dialogue with his Russian counterpart. Kyiv barred former president Petro Poroshenko from leaving. Kyiv's mayor said Zelensky had become “authoritarian”. Analysis.?
• Finland: Finland closed its border with Russia for two weeks in an attempt to stop increased flows of Middle East and African migrants into the country. Helsinki has accused Moscow of pushing asylum seekers over the border. Analysis.

Americas

• Venezuela, Guyana: Venezuelans voted by 95% to reject the International Court of Justice's jurisdiction over Guyana’s disputed Essequibo region and four other motions, Caracas said. The ICJ barred Caracas from changing the status quo. Analysis.?
• US: House Speaker Mike Johnson said was "confident and optimistic" Congress could agree funding for Israel and Ukraine but any package for the latter must come with border reforms. The Senate has pledged a vote this week. Analysis.
• Panama: The Panama Supreme Court ruled a 20-year concession for a Canadian copper mine as unconstitutional. The legal challenge was the last-ditch attempt by the mine’s opponents to stop the deal from going ahead. Analysis.
• Mexico: Mexico passed control of four more airports to the defence ministry, a priority for outgoing President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. His chosen successor, Claudia Sheinbaum, recorded a 24-point polling lead. Analysis.
• US: Billionaire donor Bill Ackman said Joe Biden should "step aside", joining other Democrat grandees who have suggested the President retire. California Governor Gavin Newsom will debate Florida’s Ron DeSantis. Analysis.

Africa

• Sahel: Al Qaeda-linked militants had killed at least 40 in Burkina Faso, the UN said, amid a worsening struggle between the region's military juntas and Islamist rebels. Niger said it had revoked a human trafficking law. Analysis.
• Guinea-Bissau: Residents of Guinea-Bissau's capital woke to gunfire after national guardsmen took two ministers from police custody and retreated to their barracks. The ministers had been detained on graft charges. Analysis.
• Rwanda: The UK signed a new treaty to enable the deportation to Rwanda of refugees from any country who try to land on British territory without prior permission. Earlier, the UK promised to slash the number of legal migrants. Analysis.
• Mali & Niger: Mali and Niger revoked double tax treaties with France, in place since 1972 and 1965 respectively, criticising ‘persistent’ French hostility. A Russian defence mission visited Niger as an accord with the EU was annulled. Analysis.
• Ethiopia: Authorities in Ethiopia's Oromia region accused Oromo rebels of killing at least 36 following failed peace talks. Regional flooding continued, displacing 1 million across Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia and Tanzania. Analysis.?
• Sudan: The UN's political mission in Sudan ended after the Security Council voted to close it at Sudan’s request. A Sudanese general last week accused the UAE and others of funding the rebel Rapid Support Forces militia. Analysis.?

Middle East

• Israel-Palestine: The State Department said it would place a travel ban on Jewish settlers in the West Bank it considers to be “extremist”. Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israel would need to maintain open-ended security over Gaza after the war. Analysis.
• Israel-Palestine: Benjamin Netanyahu's corruption trial resumed, having been suspended after October 7. Assaults on Gaza intensified as authorities said they would investigate claims short sellers anticipated Hamas’s attacks. Analysis.
• Yemen: Yemen's Houthi militants claimed attacks on two Israeli-linked vessels in the Red Sea, while the US said a third commercial ship was also attacked. The US Navy intercepted an Iranian drone in the Persian Gulf on Saturday. Analysis.?
• Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia has won the right to host World Expo 2030, comprehensively beating out competitors Italy and South Korea. Italy immediately denounced the decision. South Korea was outbid by Qatar for the 2022 FIFA World Cup. Analysis.

Asia

• Vietnam: Japan's prime minister hosted Vietnam's president, where they agreed to strengthen security cooperation. Vietnam's prime minister hosted China's commerce minister a few days earlier, where they agreed to deepen trade links. Analysis.
• India: Exit polls for five state elections showed a tight race for the BJP ahead of counting. An unsealed indictment gave further details on an alleged plot by Indian agents to murder a US citizen in New York. Analysis.
• Pakistan: An Islamabad court overturned a corruption conviction on ex-prime minister Nawaz Sharif, who returned last month from exile. Pakistan's election commission was accused of redistricting to favour Sharif’s party. Analysis.?
• Australia, the Pacific: Australia and Papua New Guinea will sign a bilateral security deal, according to PNG’s prime minister. Australia last week signed a deal to access French bases in the region amid a defence summit with the US and UK. Analysis.
• Sri Lanka: The Asian Development Bank committed to providing $600 million in further budget support to Sri Lanka. The money is dependent on Colombo meeting policy actions and reforms as part of its recent $2.9 billion IMF bailout. Analysis.?
• New Zealand: New Zealand's foreign minister said Wellington would boost its partnership with Washington in his first policy speech since returning to the job after three years. His party recently helped form a new right-leaning coalition. Analysis.
• Philippines: Filipino authorities said a massive manhunt was underway after Islamic State claimed the bombing of a church in Mindanao, killing four. Several major earthquakes on the weekend led to evacuations across the southern island. Analysis.?

Like this newsletter?

You can read all of our stories in full and have them land in your email inbox by subscribing to Geopolitical Dispatch.

Geopolitical Dispatch is the only daily briefing of its kind. Based on the US President’s Daily Brief, our analysis is concise, informed and relevant. It’s a one-stop-shop for international news that actually matters to business - all with the brevity of a media digest, but the depth of an intelligence assessment.

Geopolitical Dispatch is written by a team of experienced former diplomats, foreign correspondents and industry experts in three time zones. We help readers make better decisions by explaining geopolitical developments and their business impacts.

We publish:

• 25 analyses of geopolitical developments weekly.
• A Saturday newsletter on a hot topic in geopolitics.
• Content-rich but easily digestible assessments of the issues that matter, going beyond the news to outline the implications.