Rock & A Hard Place

Breaking: Petersen Healthcare,which runs around 100 nursing homes and assisted living facilities in the US Midwest, is preparing to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in the coming weeks.

Breaking: There's a 'meaningful' chance the Fed's next move is a rate hike, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers says [Business Insider]

Breaking: Trump ordered to pay more than $350mn in New York fraud case [FT]

Things Just Got Very Difficult For J.Powell

Whilst we've all been enjoying the view of the US economy, with the US consumer saving the world by spending irrationally using record credit card debt and buy now, pay later schemes, the rest of the world has been falling into recession or stagnation.

Helped by stock market bubbles fueled by money exiting China ahead of a car wreck, and continued fiscal economic stimulation in US, and a perception, in some agreement with the FED, that rates will be cut this year at the very least.

What could go wrong ?

This is what went wrong.

US CPI January 2024 comes in higher than expected, reducing the liklihood of the FED being able to do those rate cuts.

Then comes a crushing blow as retail sales come in really weak.

And PPI comes in hotter than expected.

It's called Stagflation and it's nasty.

"Stagflation is?a condition that combines economic stagnation with soaring inflation. Conventional monetary tools typically don't work in a stagflationary environment. In the past, stagflation has resolved after a period of painfully high interest rates and unemployment, but its causes and cure remain matters of debate." Britannica.com

A really good way of creating stagflation is to print 40% of the entire money supply of the US, in a mere 2 years.

In Japan Things Are Already Bad

Japan unexpectedly slips into recession, Germany now world's third-biggest econom [Reuters]

Stagnation In Germany and Europe, Recession in UK

Countries in recession?

• U.K
• Japan
• Denmark
• Estonia
• Finland
• Luxembourg
• Moldova
• Peru
• Ireland?

Stagnant at the moment

• EU
• China
• Germany
• Canada

In The Background

White House confirms Biden will not take a cognitive test as part of his upcoming physical exam. Biden will be first U.S President in history to refuse a cognitive test.

Commercial Real Estate?

The German property collapse?is happening in residential too [FT]

Germany’s Office Property Slump Accelerates With Record Drop [Bloomberg]

China

China stocks jump after regulator pledges support [Reuters]

?China Tightens Some Trading Restrictions for Domestic and Offshore Investors [Bloomberg]

In Case You Missed It

Hedge Funds Trading Treasuries to Be Tagged Dealers by SEC [Bloomberg]

US lenders’ debt to shadow banks passes $1tn

UK Refuses to Publish QE Indemnity Due to ‘Market Sensitivities’ [Bloomberg]

We're seeing an unprecedented amount of insider selling right now.

Jeff Bezos just sold 12 million shares of $AMZN worth $2B, Mark Zuckerberg sold another $840M worth of $META, $DKNG insiders sold $50M, $NFLX CEO sold $40M, $PLTR insiders another $35M

Australia

CBA economic warning [Reuters]

The Australian unemployment rate moved back over 4% as hardly any new jobs were created in January. With dismal retail sales and consumer confidence, we're all laser-focused on the next inflation release - monthly CPI indicator on Feb 28.

This Week's Important Economic Indicators [London time]

Key Economic Releases: https://suberia.capital/economic-indicators-by-country

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