Robots vs Humans: where is the Future of Work heading?

Predicting the future can be a fool’s errand and as that scion of science fiction writing Arthur C Clarke observed, a concept that is increasingly part of a modern age where everyone seems to want to have a turn of playing Nostradamus:

"This is the first age that's ever paid much attention to the future, which is a little ironic since we may not have one"

Clarke may well have been thinking about artificial intelligence, robotics and the future of work when he penned this decidedly gloomy phrase. As technological progress gathers pace and more and more jobs are replaced by robots and software, is the future of work as bleak as the one painted by Clarke?

The biggest change since the Industrial Revolution

Whilst most commentators on the subject would agree that the next 10-15 years are going to see work change beyond recognition to an extent perhaps not seen since the industrial revolution, there are wildly opposing opinions on what the consequences will be.

These contrasting views were reflected in a fascinating study on AI, Robotics & the Future of Jobs (download full PDF here) conducted towards the end of last year by the US based PEW Research Center. The study asked close to 2,000 experts the following question: Will networked, automated, artificial intelligence applications and robotic devices have displaced more jobs than they have created by 2025?

Opinion was split pretty much down the middle with 48% envisioning a future in which robots and digital agents have displaced significant numbers of both blue- and white-collar workers. Moreover, many contributors expressed concern that this will lead to vast increases in income inequality, masses of people who are effectively unemployable, and breakdowns in the social order. This is the ‘doomsday’ scenario as also prophesied by the Luddites at the birth of the Industrial Revolution in England in the early 1800’s.

The other 52% surveyed took a more optimistic view believing technology will not displace more jobs than it creates even if they acknowledge that many jobs will be substantively taken over by robots or automation by 2025. These ‘anti-Luddites’ if you like, believe that just as transpired in the Industrial Revolution and indeed ever since, new jobs and industries will emerge to replace those lost to robots and AI.

We’re all doomed…

So which opinion will come to pass? Those in the pessimist camp will point to the fact that automation has already extended beyond the traditional blue-collar workers into professions previously thought immune such as lawyers, accountants, architects and even doctors. When it comes to speed and precision: solving mathematical equations, performing surgery and even driving cars computers will win every time.

The speed of progress will undoubtedly leave many people, countless organisations and most educational systems floundering as foretold by Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee in their oft quoted The Second Machine Age. The MIT professors warn that as technological process steams ahead:

“there's never been a worse time to be a worker with only 'ordinary' skills and abilities to offer, because computers, robots and other digital technologies are acquiring these skills and abilities at an extraordinary rate.”

A compelling and sobering thought.

…oh no, we’re not

But before ye abandon all hope and start smashing the machines in full Luddite style, one may want to consider that throughout history technology has been a net creator – not destroyer – of jobs.

Historically, technology has created more jobs than it destroys and there is no reason to think otherwise in this case. Someone has to make and service all these advanced devices - Vint Cerf, vice president and chief Internet evangelist for Google

This view is bolstered by the changing dynamics of labour supply and demand that will be prevalent in the workforce of 2030.

Indeed, as this entertaining Ted Talk from Rainer Strack of the Boston Consulting Group highlights, research by BCG (see Figure below) suggests that contrary to fears of mass unemployment as humans are supplanted by robots, 12 of the world's 15 largest economies (together representing 70% of the world's GDP), are actually projected to face a labour shortage by 2030.

Source: BCG 'The Global Workforce Crisis - $10 Trillion at risk'

Whilst Strack concedes that automation will make up some of the shortfall, predicting when, how quickly and to what extent is simply impossible to quantify. Indeed, Strack believes that AI and robotics are just as likely to compound the situation with the new jobs they will bring and the new skills the technology will require actually exacerbating the already serious labour shortages.

The future in Strack’s native country Germany is particularly stark with labour supply predicted to be 23% (or 8m workers) shy of demand by 2030. In this case, far from being a threat the benefits of AI, robotics and technology will be substantively required to prevent Europe’s biggest economy from contracting on a massive scale. Expect Kraftwerk’s - Düsseldorf’s finest - 1978 masterpiece ‘Die Roboter (We Are The Robots)’ to replace Das Deutschlandlied as the country’s national anthem come 2030.

Kraftwerk prepare themselves for the second machine age

What is HR’s role?

What about HR’s role in all this? The pace and extent of automation and the disappearance of old jobs and the emergence of new ones set against a climate of increasing labour shortages is perhaps the most tricky of a number of critical questions facing HR. Global strategic workforce planning is no longer a nice-to-have but an essential part of an HR leader’s toolkit if they are going to work with CXO to understand what jobs need to be filled in five, ten and fifteen years time.

How will HR bring more millennials, women, alumni and retirees into these newly highly skilled jobs? How will they adapt their corporate cultures to become a global destination for these employees? As work becomes more collaborative, more virtual, increasingly dependent on co-learning and context based, how will HR enable the fundamental changes that will be required to organisation structure and design?

Bureaucracy, hierarchy and the ghastly organisation chart are all likely to go the way of the dodo (see more here), which just goes to show that technology, automation and massive change can’t all be bad. Get strapped in HR and prepare yourself for the ride.

About the Author

David is a Director at Cielo (formerly known as Pinstripe & Ochre House), the #1 RPO on the Baker's Dozen for global breadth and quality of service. David has helped a number of organisations design data driven talent acquisition programmes that drive effectiveness, growth and competitive advantage. He also speaks and writes on HR Analytics and other key tenets driving the seismic change in the future of work.

You can get in touch and connect with David by email, LinkedIn or Twitter.

You may also want to read some of David's other articles:

• HR Analytics - The New Goldrush?
• The 20 best HR Analytics articles of 2014
• 10 Predictions for HR & Recruiting in 2015 - Part 1 and Part 2
• Cost Per Hire: "It's the wrong recruiting metric, Gromit..."
• Never mind the bureaucracy, here's Punk Rock org structures...
• Vive la Révolution: Key Takeaways from HR Tech Europe 2014
• The Who's Who of HR Analytics Influencers - Part 1, Part 2, Part 3 and Part 4
• Is HR ready for the Big Data & Analytics revolution?
• Part 1 and Part 2 of our fictional HR Director's journey into the world of HR Analytics

Keywords: HR, Human Resources, HR Analytics, Strategic Workforce Planning. HR Transformation, Talent, Big Data, Recruiting, Talent Acquisition, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Future of Work