Robotics and automation: What jobs are at risk?
As Uber tests its driverless cars in Pittsburgh, I decided to dig out this Oxford study predicting which jobs will be replaced by computers and automation in the coming years. Sure enough, the study shows taxi and chauffer drivers have an 89% probability of computerization.
Many other jobs are at even greater risk, including a broad mix of both white collar and blue collar roles. Most people might expect cashiers, counter clerks, administrative assistants and production workers to be at risk. But they might not expect insurance underwriters, budget analysts, loan officers, paralegals, and accountants to also be at high risk. (See figure below.)
In fact, the study shows that computers could take over HALF of all U.S. jobs within the next 20 years.
If you're an HR manager, no cause for panic. According to the study, your job is has less than 1% probability of being computerized. HR generalists and specialists, however, are slightly more at risk (31% probability) and Comp & Ben managers - well, maybe you should start thinking of a new career, because according to the study, your job has a 96% probability of being taken over by a computer.
A full list of job roles and their probability of computerization can be found at https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf
What makes a job "at risk"?
The study points out a number of factors influencing whether a job may be replaced by a computer or robot. One is the degree of social intelligence needed. A machine operator may not need a lot of social intelligence, but anything that involves reading and responding to human emotions, such as negotiating or persuading others (for example, the role of a PR or advertising manager), would be difficult for a computer.
The second factor is the degree of creativity involved. Creativity involves novelty and can also depend what we value, which changes constantly. The role of a bank teller or a fast food order taker may not need a lot of creativity, but think about the job of a graphic designer or architect or fashion designer. Those types of jobs are unlikely to be taken over by computers any time soon.
A third factor is the degree of perception and manipulation required in a job. Tasks that require precise, coordinated movements, and manipulating objects, like the work of a surgeon, are harder for robots and computers, at least for now.
Planning for your future workforce
This coming wave of automation will cause significant disruption to the workforce, and we are already feeling the effects, as many jobs are already being displaced or redefined. Some examples:
- The LA Times and other newspapers are using ‘robot journalists’ to write stories
- Amazon uses robots to retrieve merchandise at 10 of its US warehouses
- A Japanese hotel has replaced its receptionists with robots and a few hotels in Manhattan have started to use computerized check-in and robots to handle luggage
- IBM's Watson has made great strides in many fields of medicine, including diagnoses and treatment options for cancer patients.
Business and HR leaders need to get in front of this trend by planning for the coming wave of automation and robotics and the impact on their workforces. Specifically:
- Identify existing roles that will be affected. Some roles will be replaced entirely while other roles will be partly automated, requiring a redefinition of these jobs.
- Identify new roles that will be created. This is not all bad news for workers, as the automation trend will require entirely new roles and skill sets. After all, 20 years ago we didn’t have SEO specialists, social media managers, or Big Data analysts.
- Upskill or Reskill workers. Organizations will need to focus training on building the capabilities needed for the future – and reskilling or upskilling employees will be critical.
- Work with educational institutions to ensure that graduates have the skills needed for the future workplace. These efforts are key to building a future pipeline of skilled talent.
Willis Towers Watson has been helping organizations plan for the "Future of Work." Check out this blog for more information and look for an article describing these efforts in HBR next month. In the meantime, I'm hoping that driverless cars are tested soon where I live in southern California - I can't think of a place more in need of rational drivers.