The Roadmap to good decisions
Congratulations on your decision; your decision to visit this page. How many seconds did it take for you to make that decision? Not much right? Because it is a very trivial decision.
But we make decisions of all varieties and sizes every single day.
Do all decisions give us the results we want? Probably not. And that becomes an issue when the decisions are of a greater magnitude.
As an individual, a leader, and as an organization, we all make decisions. And we all want the odds of making a good decision that yields a good result, high.
You don’t intend on making bad decisions, do you?
But decision-making is no luck game. In fact, no game at all.
There are roadblocks on the way to making good decisions. And this article addresses them and gives a bird's eye view of the road to good decisions.
So how does decision-making work anyway? Well, the textbooks say:
But really, did you follow all this to land on this page? I’m sure not.?Because most of us take decisions one at a time.?
For example, initially, you decided to read this article. If you were not interested, you’ll take a decision again, to leave; and then you will decide to check another page.? Right?
Why? Because it is not our rational brain that sets up a white paper commission every time to take a decision. It is our emotions.?
Emotions handle the decision-making part although we were taught to believe otherwise.
Emotion-based decision-making is not a bad trait. In fact, it is more of an evolutionary trait that kept us all alive for ages.?
So then where is the trouble? The trouble occurs when emotions overtake us.?
Every time our emotions overtake us, we’re faced with some of these issues;
INDECISIVENESS:
Indecisiveness is when you are unable to take a decision and instead do make not deciding a decision. It usually occurs when?
It was once assumed that having more choices will make decisions easier. Turns out, it is quite the opposite. If I had to choose between vanilla, butterscotch, and chocolate ice cream, I’d decide faster than if I had to choose between blueberry, mango, strawberry, pistachio, black currant, cream and caramel, almond, and whatnot.?
How to decide when there are too many options?
2. Lack of Knowledge?
Routine decisions in your field will be relatively easier than when you venture out into a new area. When you’re clueless about what to do, you do nothing.?
The SPADE technique comes in handy in this case. Setting - People - Alternatives - Decide - Explain?
SETTING - First, you set the context - the what, why, and when of your decision
PEOPLE - Second, you find the people who can consult you and give inputs for the decision making
ALTERNATIVES - Third, you outline the alternatives to consider from what you’ve learned
DECIDE - Fourth, you decide your course of action
EXPLAIN - The fifth step is absent in the case of personal decisions but if it is in a group, it has to be explained and justified to others.
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BIASES
With tons of information spread around, we are forced to make tons of decisions. Our brain makes the job simpler for us by taking shortcuts. It takes shortcuts with what it already knows. Although shortcuts are really useful, they come with biases.?
Biases that don’t let you see the whole picture. There are different kinds of biases
When you pay attention to things that validate your pre-existing beliefs, the belief grows even stronger. You tend to avoid the information that says otherwise. What you see confirms your beliefs and makes you even stronger.?
2. Survivorship bias
When you make decisions based only on examples of success all while assuming that you have the full story. For instance when you emulate the methods of a successful person without fully understanding that there might be different factors that could have made them successful
3. Anchoring bias
When you make assumptions and judgments only using the initial piece of information without gathering more information
4. Availability Heuristic
When you make decisions based on what comes to your mind immediately. For example, if the first thought that comes to you if you have to travel by plane is about how flights get hijacked, you’d decide against flying.
5. Halo Effect and Horn Effect
This is similar to anchoring bias but for people. A judgment of someone’s character is made only with the first impression. The Halo effect occurs when you initially get a good impression of someone and believe they’re entirely good. And the Horns effect is the exact opposite - you get a bad impression from someone and decide that they’re entirely bad.
How to overcome biases?
Every human is biased. But not everyone is biased the same way, for the same thing at the same time. This is where a third-party perspective if not multiple perspectives is needed.?
What you don’t see, someone else might. Explain your decision before making it, to a third person for a fresh view.
STUCK WITH WRONG DECISIONS
Sometimes with haste, and sometimes due to the above reasons, a wrong decision can be made. You come to regret the decision and wallow over it.
There are 2 possible reasons why you could be stuck
In the financial context, it roughly means continuous investment in stocks that aren’t giving returns in hopes that they might. This behavior can also be exhibited when a carefully considered decision goes wrong. No attempts to recover are made hoping maybe it’ll turn out well if given time
2. No Plan B??
It is often possible that when too much energy is focused on making a single, perfect decision, the contingency plan is forgotten. Despite how well-thought decisions are sometimes it'd failure is beyond control. Without a contingency plan, any individual, or group is bound to be directionless
How to pivot and take new decisions?
A big factor that helps move from a mistake is mindset. The mindset of accepting failures. When you have failed, you have seen the worst and now there’s nothing more to be worried about but rather engage in fruitful pursuits that bring good decisions and successes.
UNAWARE OF WHEN TO MAKE QUICK AND WELL-THOUGHT DECISIONS
Some decisions are to be made quickly and some require careful consideration. Making quick decisions when it is supposed to be well thought, out and wasting time thinking when it can be taken in a matter of minutes are also reasons to arrive at bad decisions.
How to figure out what kind of decision to make?
Ask yourself this, “Will this matter in 5 years?” If it does, the decision-making process needs to be slow, steady, and well thought if not, it could be taken however fast you can.?
While the textbooks give you models and classify decision-making into different categories of blueprints, it often doesn’t work outside the books. Because decision-making, largely is a thing of the mind, not the book.?
It is something that comes with learning and practice and not mere reading.?