The Road to Net Zero

Recently an article came out in the Telegraph that stated?Net Zero is dead (with respect to climate and the environment),??only the fanatics haven’t realised it yet.? It saddened me to see this statement as I am not sure if it is soundbite politics, just a lack of understanding or a push to drive today’s economic challenges. Either way, it is not going to sway the general population to have alignment with a vision of the future that can be realised, is sustainable, is affordability and maintains security of supply.

The problem is we can see the volatility, the uncertainty, the complexity and ambiguity in our current environment, but we need a to imagine a new vision for the future, gain much more understanding of the dimensions, more clarity on the path ahead, but maintain an agile approach as the things around us change.? This is what the fundamentals of?decision and risk management?are.?

For example, the scenarios around our future are based on three key elements.? The first scenario is accelerated energy transition where gas is a transition fuel to help us move effectively into newer forms of renewable and lower GHG power generation technologies. (The new companies being formed today are Gas and Energy Transition companies GET ) The second scenario is the net zero emissions ambition as Carbon Dioxide levels above 360ppm are concerning but Carbon Dioxide levels above 450ppm could be disastrous and history tells us it takes up to o 50,000 years for Carbon dioxide levels to come back down towards 200ppm.? The third scenario is due to the economic crisis and lack of resources which could create renewed momentum in oil and gas as people demand results today rather than ?secure tomorrow. Behaviour is mainly driven by immediate and certain consequences rather that future uncertain consequences which can act as a major barrier.?

However, we must stop labelling oil and gas together, remembering that a large percentage of the emissions today also come from Coal and biofuels associated with the products we buy. Nearly 50% of oil production is used for manufacturing of materials such as plastics which we need for the energy transition and net zero.

If we move onto Net Zero, we cannot allow this target to die from a risk perspective. We know 80% of the technologies that will help get us to the 2030 targets, however, the real challenge is from 2030 to 2050 as we need to develop 80% of new technologies to ensure a sustainable future.? What is unclear, is do we really want to drive Carbon Dioxide levels back to sub 200pm.? In that case, lower Carbon dioxide levels, colder temperatures and dryer weather could reduce our ability for food production with increasing population and demand for quality food products. There are always unintended consequences which should be considered in any risk assessment before finalising the vision and plan.

This week, I have been in discussions with the Net Zero Technology Centre 2024 cohort for new companies and technologies that can help us towards a net zero future.? There are some fantastic people, companies and new technologies that can help us along the journey.? I have personally been involved with the Technology Centre since its inception, and there is a lot going on which to gives a much more positive outlook on accelerated energy transition and a drive towards a net zero future.

Of course, there are critical risks associated with our future state.? At energy transition level, these can be reduced to seven critical ones, namely, ?environmental conditions, available natural resources,? average and peak energy demand, people resources/skills, finance/investment, the economy and social stability. These must be factored in to the equation for short term and long term strategies and planning.

That moves me onto my second experience this week.? I have been working in primary schools as part of TechFest / Science week in association with Developing the Young Workforce (DYW).? This energised me so much more, as these young people know all about the energy transition and the move to renewable and non-hydrocarbon energy sources.? The last two days we were working with them on energy projects including using lemons for electricity generation and making bioplastics from hydrocarbon-based food sources rather than oil.? These young people really get it.

From a risk perspective, rather than argue the decisions of today without any real understanding or clarity of the situation, why don’t we focus our attention on developing the next generation in a way that prepares them for the challenges of the future, not just today’s challenges.? We must also have a new vision and alternatives for a more successful and sustainable future. ? After all, leadership is about showing the way and inspiring people and that is what risk management is all about, making sure the future threats are mitigated but the future opportunities are levered.

Risk management is not about listing?the threats and opportunities, but gaining insight into future scenarios, then testing alternatives, looking for unintended consequences and then creating both the base and extended strategies for success.

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